VZCZCXRO4449
RR RUEHAG RUEHAST RUEHDA RUEHDBU RUEHDF RUEHFL RUEHIK RUEHKW RUEHLA
RUEHLN RUEHLZ RUEHNP RUEHPOD RUEHROV RUEHSL RUEHSR RUEHVK RUEHYG
DE RUEHSK #0332/01 2681215
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 251215Z SEP 09
FM AMEMBASSY MINSK
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 0494
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
RUEHSK/AMEMBASSY MINSK 0501

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 MINSK 000332 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM ECON BO
SUBJECT: BELARUS WEEKLY POL/ECON REPORT - SEPTEMBER 25, 2009 
 
MINSK 00000332  001.2 OF 003 
 
 
¶1.  The following are brief items of interest compiled by 
Embassy Minsk. 
 
TABLE OF CONTENTS 
 
Civil Society 
------------- 
 
- New Life Church Still Facing Eviction, Receives Support from 
Visiting DRL Officer (para. 2) 
- "European Belarus" Activists Detained, Fined (para. 3) 
- GOB Continues to Enforce Politically Motivated Military 
Conscriptions (para. 4) 
- GOB Drops Criminal Charges Against Volkovysk Activist Yuriy 
Leonov (para. 5) 
 
Domestic Economy 
---------------- 
 
- Belarus' Through-July Commodity Trade Down 40 Percent 
Year-on-Year (para. 6) 
- Both Net and Gross Foreign Assets on Decline Though August 
(para. 7) 
- Widening Current-Account Deficit Increases External Risks and 
Liquidity Pressure (para. 8) 
- GOB Drafted Pessimistic and Optimistic Scenarios of Belarus' 
Development in 2010 (para. 9) 
- GOB Expects a Burst of Investment Activities Later This Year 
(para. 10) 
- More Liberalization Edicts in the Pipeline (para. 11) 
- Average Salary in August $ 367.8 (para. 12) 
 
International Security 
---------------------- 
- Joint Military Exercise Continues in Belarus (para. 13) 
 
Quote of the Week (para. 14) 
--------------------------- 
 
------------- 
Civil Society 
------------- 
 
¶2. New Life Church Still Facing Eviction, Receives Support from 
Visiting DRL Officer 
 
On October 7, the Minsk City Economic Court will commence 
hearings on an eviction lawsuit filed by local district housing 
maintenance authorities against the community of the New Life 
Church (NLC).  In their five-year-long dispute with the 
authorities, the parishioners continue to deny GOB officials 
access to their premises and refuse to vacate their building due 
to insufficient compensation offered to the NLC for building a 
new temple and wide-spread bans to lease other facilities 
available in Minsk for organizing their religious services.  The 
NLC has repeatedly dismissed as "illegal" all charges and 
speculations that the community violated procedures for 
reconstructing its church building and holding the land plot 
despite the Minsk City authorities' plans to use it for the 
construction of a school.  The lawyer of the NLC, Sergey 
Lukanin, told the judge that the community had approached the UN 
Human Rights Committee for support on September 9 and requested 
the judge to postpone the hearings until the community received 
a response from the Committee.  On a separate account, various 
independent news agencies carried reports on State Department 
DRL Officer Daniel Nadel's visit with the NLC on September 21 
during his six-day stay in Belarus. Lukanin and NLC's senior 
pastors briefed and updated Nadel on the current situation with 
the NLC, and Nadel assured the church leaders that the USG will 
closely monitor the NLC case until the GOB stopped their 
harassment against the NLC and violating the community's rights 
and religious freedoms. 
 
¶3. "European Belarus" Activists Detained, Fined 
 
A Minsk District Court fined on September 22 "European Belarus" 
civil campaign activist Maksim Vinyarskiy $375 for his 
participation in an unauthorized demonstration.  Police 
dispersed a protest staged by ten campaign members in central 
Minsk on September 21 to show solidarity with imprisoned 
Volkovysk activists Nikolay Avtukhovich and Vladimir Osipenko 
and Malady Front activist Artyom Dubskiy.  Vinyarskiy, detained 
overnight, was apprehended along with his associate Evgeniy 
Afnagel who was released with no charges. 
 
¶4. GOB Continues to Enforce Politically Motivated Military 
Conscriptions 
 
Two Malady Front activists, Gomel-based Andrey Tenyuta and 
Brest-based Evgeniy Skrebets, were summoned for military 
enlistment on September 25 and September 21, respectively.  Both 
have condemned their forced army conscription as "illegal" and 
"politically motivated."  Tenyuta's recruitment had been 
 
MINSK 00000332  002.2 OF 003 
 
 
deferred for the period of his studies; however, he was expelled 
from a school in Russia in June 2009.  The activists were 
enlisted despite being earlier declared "unfit" for army 
services due to some severe health conditions, including 
scoliosis.  Tenyuta will be serving in a transport troop unit in 
the Gomel Region, and Skrebets was drafted to a railroad army 
detachment near Mogilyov. 
 
¶5. GOB Drops Criminal Charges Against Volkovysk Activist Yuriy 
Leonov 
 
On September 24, Volkovysk activist Yuriy Leonov, who was 
released from pretrial holding facilities on August 8, received 
official notification that the Interior Ministry closed the 
criminal case against him on charges of deliberate destruction 
or damage of property and arson.  Leonov argued that the GOB 
thereby admitted that the charges were "groundless," absurd, and 
far-fetched and called for open court hearings against his 
jailed associates Nikolay Avtukhovich and Vladimir Osipenko.  In 
addition, Avtukhovich is facing  terrorism charges.  The 
investigation into that is reportedly ongoing, and no date for 
court hearings has been yet announced. 
 
--------- 
Economy 
--------- 
 
¶6. Belarus' Through-July Commodity Trade Down 40 Percent 
Year-on-Year 
 
According to the data of the state news agency Belta aired on 
September 22, Belarus' commodity trade reached $26.33 billion in 
January-July 2009 or 60 percent of the trade in the same period 
for 2008.  Belarus' exports amounted to $11.022 billion or 53.9 
percent and imports - to $15.308 billion or 65.1 percent, 
respectively, and the trade deficit continues to grow. 
 
¶7. Both Net and Gross Foreign Assets on Decline Though August 
 
A source in the National Bank (NB) told Prime-TASS news agency 
September 21 that, according to the preliminary data, as of 
September 1, the NB and the GOB's net foreign assets totaled 
$2.87 billion, which is 10.2% less than this past January. 
Gross foreign assets dropped through August 9.1% down to $3.3 
billion. 
 
¶8. Widening Current-Account Deficit Increases External Risks and 
Liquidity Pressure 
 
According to data of the IHS Global Insight organization posted 
on September 22,  the Belarus National Bank's (NB) report on 
balance of payments showed continued rapid widening of the 
Belarusian current-account deficit.  In Q2 of 2009, the 
shortfall deepened by 89% year-on-year; however, the pace of the 
widening moderated from the Q1 when the deficit had nearly 
quadrupled, and quarter-on-quarter development demonstrated a 
narrowing of 5%.  Despite the latter, the current account 
deficit of approximately $3.7 billion, or 18% of the GDP in the 
first half of 2009 (vs. $1.4 billion in the first half of 2008) 
poses a major source of external risk and considerable liquidity 
pressures for Belarus.  In Q2 2009, foreign direct investment 
inflow covered only 10% of the current account deficit compared 
to almost 50% in Q1 and nearly 30% in Q2 of 2008. 
 
¶9. GOB Drafted Pessimistic and Optimistic Scenarios of Belarus' 
Development in 2010 
 
According to the GOB press service, answering questions of 
reporters on September 23, PM Syarhey Sidorski explained that 
the GOB has elaborated a draft of the socioeconomic development 
forecast for 2010 based on two scenarios.  First the "Balanced" 
scenario provides for a 2-3 percent growth year-on-year, and the 
second, "Optimistic", envisages a 10-11 percent projected 
growth.  He expressed GOB's hopes for Belarus expanding its 
exports amidst optimistic reports from Russia, Belarus' major 
export market, and the U.S. that the global recession is over as 
well as growing demand for Belarus-made products in such new 
markets as African and Asian countries. 
 
¶10. GOB Expects a Burst of Investment Activities Later This Year 
 
According to media reports, Director of Belarus' National 
Investment Agency, Viktor Kovalenko, told reporters September 18 
that the GOB expects a burst of activity of foreign investors in 
Belarus later this year.  At the moment, the situation is very 
quiet as everybody is waiting for Lukashenka's decrees and 
edicts, giving more benefits to investors, to come into effect. 
Currently, the GOB is allegedly negotiating large investments 
with five foreign financial groups, which plan to invest in 
Belarus. Mr. Kovalenko also announced that Minsk will host a 
Belarusian Investment Forum, November 12-13. 
 
¶11. More Liberalization Edicts in the Pipeline 
 
MINSK 00000332  003.2 OF 003 
 
 
 
A representative of the Ministry of Economy told reporters 
September 22 that six presidential edicts, when signed, would 
reduce customs formalities and tax burden on small businesses. 
Also there would be weekly discussions to identify ways to 
support small businesses which sell Belarusian-made products 
inside and outside the country.  The goal is to increase the 
small businesses' share of such sales from its current 1-3 
percent of the market to 30-40 percent by the end of the year. 
 
¶12. Average Salary in August $ 367.8 
 
The National Statistics Committee announced September 23 that 
the average before-tax monthly salary in Belarus reached about 
$350 in January-August 2009, up 0.8% to $367.8 alone in August. 
Workers in the construction sector were reportedly receiving the 
highest salaries. 
 
---------------------- 
International Security 
---------------------- 
 
¶13. Joint Military Exercise Continues in Belarus 
 
The Zapad-2009 (West-2009) joint Russian-Belarusian military 
exercise, which started in Belarus September 18, entered its 
final stage September 23 and will last until September 29. 
According to the simulated scenario, a conflict broke out in 
Belarus and Russia came to its ally's help.  The troops involved 
will practice repelling air strikes and will streamline the 
management of military units.  The exercise will be supported by 
Belarus' Interior, Emergency Situations, Health, and Transport 
ministries, KGB and the State Border Committee.  The 
Obuz-Lesnovski training ground in the Brest region is the main 
venue of the exercise, the active stage which will take place on 
September 29.  A separate exercise will take place at a training 
ground near the city of Borisov, Minsk region, September 27 and 
¶28.  Its scenario has been drawn up by the Russian Armed Forces' 
General Staff and is not connected with Zapad-2009. 
 
----------------- 
Quote of the Week 
----------------- 
 
¶14. Speaking at the "Dazhinky" festival in the city of Kobryn 
(Brest region) September 19, Lukashenka 
said: 
 
"the level of budget expenditures on social needs that we had 
this year - more than 60 percent - we will definitely preserve 
in order to support people in this difficult time." 
MILLER