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DE RUEHSK #0317/01 2591547
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 161547Z SEP 09
FM AMEMBASSY MINSK
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 0474
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
RUEHSK/AMEMBASSY MINSK 0481

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 MINSK 000317 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM ECON BO
SUBJECT: BELARUS WEEKLY POL/ECON REPORT - SEPTEMBER 11, 2009 
 
MINSK 00000317  001.2 OF 004 
 
 
¶1.  (U) The following are brief items of interest compiled by 
Embassy Minsk. 
 
TABLE OF CONTENTS 
 
Civil Society 
------------- 
 
- GOB Continues to Use a Heavy Hand in Dispersing Opposition 
Demonstrations, Big or Small (para. 2) 
- GOB May No Longer Classify Unregistered NGOs and Political 
Parties Activities as Criminal (para. 3) 
- Artynom Dubskiy from the "Case of 14" Could be Released by the 
End of the Year (para. 4) 
- One Opposition Candidate for the Presidential Election Appears 
to be Unlikely (para.5) 
 
Economy 
---------------- 
- Deputy Finance Ministry: Budget Cuts Inevitable (para. 6) 
- Foreign Debt Up and International Reserves Down (para. 7) 
- Sidorsky: Major Concerns Are Low Industrial Output, Trade 
Deficit and Lax Retail Trade (para. 8) 
- GOB Raised Gasoline and Diesel Prices (para. 9) 
- Subsidies to Mozyr Oil Refinery Suspended (para. 10) 
- IFC and WB Doing Business 2010 Report Notes Belarus' Progress 
in Reforming Economy (para. 11) 
 
Foreign Relations 
------------------ 
- Russia-Belarus Step Up Preparations for Joint Military 
Exercises (para. 12) 
- Lukashenka and Chavez Met in Minsk to Invigorate Bilateral 
Cooperation (para. 13) 
 
Quote of the Week (para. 14) 
--------------------------- 
 
------------- 
Civil Society 
------------- 
 
¶2.  (U) GOB Continues to Use a Heavy Hand in Dispersing 
Opposition Demonstrations, Big or Small 
 
A Minsk court fined 17 opposition activists up to $320 for 
participating on September 9 in an unsanctioned demonstration in 
Minsk protesting against the ongoing Zapad-2009 
Russian-Belarusian military exercises.  In dispersing the rally, 
officers aggressively manhandled protesters and forced others to 
the ground before taking them away in buses.  Zmitser 
Dashkevich, head of Malady Front and small business activist 
Aleksandr Makayev, and five other activists were apprehended 
minutes before the protest.  Journalists who were at the site 
covering the event reported that police interfered and damaged a 
camera of a Polish correspondent filming the demonstration. 
Police later allegedly harassed, humiliated, and struck the 
detainees at a precinct, where they were held overnight.  In a 
related demonstration, a Minsk district court fined Malady Front 
activists Nikolay Demidenko $375 and Margarita Korol $62 for 
staging an unsanctioned demonstration against Zapad 2009 on 
September 8 in front of the Russian Embassy in Minsk.  On 
September 3, police in Vitebsk roughed up and detained for the 
evening local activist Oleg Surgan when he tried to display an 
opposition white-red-white flag. 
 
¶3. (U) GOB May No Longer Classify Unregistered NGOs and 
Political Parties Activities as Criminal Activity 
 
In an unexpected step, Deputy Justice Minister Igor Tushynskiy 
announced that the GOB plans to amend Article 193-1 of the 
Criminal Code that criminalizes any political or social 
activities on behalf of an unregistered political party, NGO, 
association, or religious group.   Under the proposed amendments 
these activities hence force would be subject to administrative 
charges and not criminal charges.  Belarus civil society has 
long advocated for the abolishment of Article 193-1, and Yuriy 
Chausov, a prominent human rights lawyer, expressed cautious 
optimism that the GOB has recognized "the excessive harshness of 
the penalty" [of up to two years in jail] .  Seventeen civil 
society and opposition members, according to Chusov, had been 
convicted under Article 193-1 since it was introduce into 
Belarus Criminal Code in December 2005. 
 
¶4. (SBU) Artynom Dubskiy from the "Case of 14" Could be Released 
by the End of the Year 
 
On September 9, Tamara Sidorenko, the defense counsel for Artyom 
Dubskiy, told the Charge that there were two ways Dubskiy could 
avoid having to serve the one-year prison sentence he received 
for violating the terms of his partial house arrest.  The 
original sentence was related to his participation unsanctioned 
 
MINSK 00000317  002.2 OF 004 
 
 
entrepreneurs demonstrations in January 2008.  Since Dubskiy 
admitted he had violated the terms of partial house arrest, he 
had the right to appeal to President Lukashenka for a pardon. 
The President could pardon him once he had served six months of 
the sentence.  The other option was once Dubskiy had served six 
months of his sentence, prison authorities could initiate a 
process of early release for good behavior.  His time in 
pre-trial detention counts towards the six months, and if a 
disputed 18-day period of his pre-trial detention is counted, 
six months would be November 9.  Under the pardon option it 
could take affect November 10, if it is the second variant it 
takes a month of processing putting Dubskiy's release in 
mid-December.  Dubskiy and his lawyer will pursue both options. 
As for the remaining "Case of 14" participants, four have been 
amnestied, one pardoned, two have paid their fines, one remains 
under partial house arrest until September 2010, and two are 
banned from leaving Belarus and must pay 15% of their salaries 
to the state through September 2010, and three, who were 
sentenced to partial house arrest, fled the country and are now 
studying abroad in Europe. 
 
¶5. (SBU) One Opposition Candidate for the Presidential Election 
Appears to be Unlikely 
 
Belarusian Popular Front (BPF) held its convention on September 
5 and elected deputy Alyaksey Yanukevich its new Chairman. 
Yanukevich stated that only "if regulations are amended to 
ensure that election commissions at all levels have 
representatives of the opposition, would participating in the 
[presidential] elections make sense."  (Note: Presidential 
elections could be scheduled for either late 2010 or early 2011. 
 End note)  Furthermore, Yanukevich stated that BDF will not 
participate in the United Democratic Forces (UDF) primary to 
choose one opposition candidate for the Presidential elections. 
The BPF announced plans to leave the UDF and work with their 
partners on establishing a center-rightist National Democratic 
coalition.  Milinkevich, leader of the For Freedom movement, 
also publicly stated that he did not believe it was possible to 
unify behind one person given the various UDF opposition 
parties' ideologies.  Belarusian Christian Democrats told the 
Embassy they don't believe in the UDF single candidate approach 
and thus have sided with Belarusian Front and Milinkevich.  The 
opposition Communist Party told us they continue to support the 
idea of a primary and one opposition UDF candidate, but said 
they are skeptical the three parties mentioned above will 
support the one opposition candidate approach.  Artur Finkevich, 
chair of the independent youth movement "Young Belarus," also 
told the Embassy that the days of one opposition candidate are 
over as it is no longer a realistic approach given the different 
political ideologies.  Anatoly Lebedko, Head of the United Civic 
Party, and key player in the UDF still believes it is critical 
for the opposition to have a single candidate in the 
Presidential election, and told the Charge he will proceed with 
organizing the UDF primary and will lobby other UDF parties to 
reverse their decisions not to participate. 
 
------- 
Economy 
------- 
 
¶6. (U) Deputy Finance Ministry: Budget Cuts Inevitable 
 
Speaking to chairpersons of Belarus' local councils at a session 
in the Upper House on September 9 Deputy Finance Minister 
Vladimir Amarin stated that the GOB expects "the budget 
situation to worsen before the end of the 2009" due to 
significant "revenues shortfall".   He elaborated that revenues 
collected by central and municipal budgets had reached only 57% 
and 65% of the annual target set by the GOB.  Under 2009 budget 
law, Belarus need to have zero budget deficit.  "We will have to 
fund expenditures in tough terms, ensuring in the first place 
social spending, paying wages, utility services, medicines - 
i.e. secured expenditures." 
 
¶7. (U) Foreign Debt Up and International Reserves Down 
 
According to data posted by the Belarus' Finance Ministry on 
September 7, the country's state foreign debt by August 1 had 
increased 12.6 percent to $6.09 billion. The debt grew due to 
the loans received in 2009 from Russia ($500 million) and the 
IMF (approximately $1.5 billion).  The country's international 
reserves continued to shrink in August falling 4.4.% to $ 3.021 
billion.  Total foreign currency trading volume in Belarus 
decreased in August by 42.7 percent. 
 
¶8. (U) Sidorsky: Major Concerns Are Low Industrial Output, Trade 
Deficit and Lax Retail Trade 
 
According to the presidential press service, Prime Minister 
Sergei Sidorsky told Lukashenka September 4 that Belarus' major 
economic concerns through July were falling industrial output 
(3.9 percent), a $3.1 billion deficit in foreign trade and a 
 
MINSK 00000317  003.2 OF 004 
 
 
lower than expected 2.7 percent year-on-year growth in retail 
trade.  Sidorsky assured Lukashenka that all government agencies 
were actively reducting their inventories of unsold products. 
As of August 1, they had decreased overall inventories to 88.3 
percent of the average monthly industrial output.  The GOB also 
instructed Belarusian embassies to intensify their promotional 
efforts to sell Belarusian-made products. 
 
¶9. (U) GOB Raised Gasoline and Diesel Prices 
 
On September 8, an unnamed source in the GOB told Prime-TASS 
news agency that the government had decided to raise prices on 
gasoline and diesel fuel starting on September 10.  The GOB 
claims the 10 percent increase, opposed by the Transportation 
and Agriculture Ministries, will help offset losses made by 
suppliers of fuel to the domestic markets due to the growing 
world oil price. 
 
¶10. (U) Subsidies to Mozyr Oil Refinery Suspended 
 
An unnamed source in the Finance Ministry told Prime-TASS news 
agency on September 8 that the GOB did not defy its obligations 
to pay subsidies to Mozyr oil refinery for the purpose of 
ensuring its profitable operations.  The day before a source at 
Mozyr refinery told Prime TASS that the facility has not 
received any subsidies over the last three months and will not 
receive any in the near future because of the government's 
budget constraints and the refinery's profitable operations of 
late.  The GOB decided to subsidize Belarusian oil refineries in 
2007 to ensure steady and profitable supplies of crude oil to 
Belarus. 
 
¶11. (U) IFC and World Bank (WB) Doing Business 2010 Report Notes 
Belarus' Progress in Reforming Economy 
 
According to IFC and WB's Doing Business 2010 "Reforming through 
Difficult Times" report presented in Moscow on September 9 and 
in Minsk on September 11, Belarus improved its rankings from 82 
to 58 on the overall ease of doing business, from 98 to 91 on 
advancing "starting a business", and from 62 to 44 in "dealing 
with construction permits."  One of the report's authors stated 
that Belarus among other countries "implemented reforms in 
several areas for the third consecutive year," but despite 
"considerable progress," he noted that "much work remains [to be 
done] to create a favorable business environment that will lead 
to increased investment in Belarus."  Private investment and 
innovation, improving enterprise entry and exit, reduction of 
administrative barriers to business development remain 
priorities on Belarus' economic agenda for recovery from the 
global financial crisis. 
 
---------------- 
Foreign Relations 
----------------- 
 
¶12. (U) Russia-Belarus Step Up Preparations for Joint Military 
Exercises 
 
A Defense Ministry's spokesperson told the press on September 9 
that the first Russian units had arrived in Belarus for the 
scheduled  Zapad (West)-2009 Russian-Belarusian military 
exercises.  A source with the Belarus Air and Air Defense Forces 
reported that six Belarusian MiG-29 aircrafts had deployed to 
southern Russia on September 11 and that Russian warplanes were 
expected to begin arriving in Belarus as September 16.  Zapad 
2009 will involve 12,500 servicemen and up to 200 military 
vehicles and take place in Belarus and Russia simultaneously 
from September 18-29.  According to various media sources, 
Russia and Belarus will be simulating an operation to liberate 
Tskhinvali.  The troops will practice river crossings and 
parachute drops, and will land combat aircraft on highways. 
Zapad-2009 is a second phase of a Collective Security Treaty 
Organization exercise.  The first phase took place in Moscow in 
August 2009.  Presidential Administration contacts told the 
Embassy that Russian President Medvedev is expected to visit 
Belarus on September 29 to view the exercise with President 
Lukashenka. 
 
¶13.  (U) Lukashenka and Chavez Met in Minsk to Invigorate 
Bilateral Cooperation 
 
According to media reports, Lukashenka met in Minsk with the 
visiting Venezuelan President Chavez on September 8 to discuss 
progress in bilateral relations and to boost economic 
cooperation.  Lukashenka thanked Chavez, who was on his fourth 
visit to Belarus, for Venezuela's financial support and noted 
the first profits had already flowed from the two countries' 
joint oil extracting company in Venezuela.  Bilateral trade 
through July had doubled year-on-year and totaled $132.5 
million.  Lukashenka is scheduled to visit Venezuela in January 
¶2010. 
 
 
MINSK 00000317  004.2 OF 004 
 
 
----------------- 
Quote of the Week 
----------------- 
 
¶14.  (U) Meeting with the visiting Slovak Foreign Minister 
Miroslav Laichak in Minsk on September 7 Lukashenka said: "It is 
important to us to have close cooperation with you.  That said, 
we do not put forward any conditions , if we come to terms, we 
strictly abide by our obligations.  We have an ideal order in 
that - something that in other countries is called dictatorship. 
 Business people hail such order - a word means a deal.  They do 
not like all sorts of pseudo democracy." 
SCANLAN