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P 281133Z SEP 09
FM AMEMBASSY LISBON
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UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 LISBON 000516 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL SCUL SOCI PO
SUBJECT: SOCIALISTS WIN PORTUGUESE PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS 
 
REF: A. LISBON 493 
     ¶B. LISBON 510 
 
¶1. Summary:  On September 27, the ruling Socialist Party won 
a plurality of the seats in the Portuguese Parliament with 37 
percent of the vote.  The Social Democratic Party, led by 
former Finance Minister Manuela Ferreira Leite, came in 
second with 29 percent of the vote.  The Socialists lost 25 
seats, while other parties gained seats, increasing their 
representation in Parliament.  Election assessment teams 
concluded that the elections were well organized with no 
disruptions or significant issues.  While too early to 
predict a coalition of the Socialists with another party, the 
most likely scenario is a continued Socialist government. 
End Summary. 
 
¶2. According to unofficial results of Portugal's September 27 
parliamentary elections, the ruling Socialist Party (PS) led 
by Prime Minister Jose Socrates won a plurality of the seats 
in the 230-seat Parliament with 37 percent of the vote.  The 
Socialists, who have ruled with an absolute majority (121 
seats) since 2005, lost 25 seats.  The opposition Social 
Democratic Party (PSD) trailed with 29 percent of the vote, 
followed by the Popular Party (CDS-PP) with 11 percent, the 
Left Bloc with 10 percent, and the Communist Party with 8 
percent.  The PSD gained three seats, while the Popular Party 
gained 10 seats, and the Left Bloc gained 8, doubling its 
presence (from 8 to 16 seats) in the Parliament.  The 
Communists gained four seats.  Voter turnout was 61 percent. 
 
 
Official Results to be Released 
------------------------------- 
¶3. The official results are expected within 10 days, at which 
point the President will ask the Socialist Party to form a 
government.  In his victory speech September 27, Prime 
Minister Socrates left open the door for a possible coalition 
without specifically naming any parties; however, the most 
likely scenario is a minority Socialist-led government with 
ad hoc agreements with the left and the right to pass 
measures through the Parliament. 
 
Media Reaction 
-------------- 
¶4. Local press announced the Socialist victory with reserved 
declarations, such as "Limited PS Victory," "No Absolute 
Majority for the PS," "Absolute Negotiation," and "And Now 
What, Socrates?," that foreshadow the difficult road ahead. 
Press also highlighted the surprising third place finish of 
the right-of-center CDS-PP and the fourth place finish for 
the (far left) Left Bloc that effectively doubled the party's 
current representation in Parliament. 
 
¶5. Media noted the disappointing results for the PSD and 
attributed them to the party's weak campaign, its position on 
the controversial high-speed rail-link project, anti-Spain 
statements, and inclusion of polemic figure Deputy Antonio 
Preto (who has been accused of corruption) as a candidate. 
 
Election Assessment 
------------------- 
¶6. Emboffs visited eight polling centers in four precincts on 
election day, and observed that the centers were well 
organized, with short lines, voters of all ages, including 
families with children, hand sanitizers as a preventive 
measure against the H1N1 virus, and clear signs directing 
voters to their stations.  Emboffs did not notice any 
political propaganda or disruptions, nor any special access 
for the handicapped. 
 
¶7. The OSCE Office for Democratic Institutions and Human 
Rights (ODIHR) Election Assessment Mission concluded that the 
elections went well.  Deputy Head of Mission Michael Meyer 
told poloff September 28 that the polling centers were, for 
the most part, easily accessible although access was 
difficult for the handicapped.  He also noted that there was 
a certain level of informality, but a high degree of 
confidence and experience among election officials.  Large 
political parties and local observers were present at several 
centers.  He noted one small glitch )- use of wrong ballots 
-- in one polling center in the Viana do Castelo district in 
the northern region.  But overall, the elections were well 
organized with no disruptions or significant issues. 
 
 
¶8. Post will report septel further election and post-election 
analysis.  Portugal's municipal elections will be held on 
October 11. 
 
 
For more reporting from Embassy Lisbon and information about Portugal, 
 
LISBON 00000516  002 OF 002 
 
 
please see our Intelink site: 
 
http://www.intelink.sgov.gov/wiki/portal:port ugal 
BALLARD