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UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 KATHMANDU 000872 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PHUM KDEM NP
SUBJECT: NEPAL: NGOS BRIEF DAS SCHER ON GRASSROOTS DEMOCRACY 
 
¶1. (SBU) Summary.  Representatives of democracy and 
peace-building organizations working in Nepal told visiting 
Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense Scher that the Nepali 
population is increasingly frustrated with the ongoing 
political stalemate.  "Backbench" Constituent Assembly (CA) 
members are pressuring political leaders to resolve their 
differences and begin to deal with "bread-and-butter" issues. 
 The Maoists remain the strongest political party and would 
likely win an election held today, but their support is 
slipping among allies from Nepal's ethnic communities.  Much 
of rural Terai remains essentially a lawless region, with 
some signs of increasing non-Nepali Muslim activity.  End 
Summary. 
 
"Cautious Optimism" 
------------------- 
¶2. (SBU) Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense Robert Scher 
met September 16 with four Kathmandu-based representatives of 
organizations working on democracy and peace.  Several of the 
participants were "cautiously optimistic" that the political 
parties would soon break the current deadlock, at least on 
Maoist demands to deal with the issue of "civilian supremacy" 
over the military.  One participant suggested that the party 
leaders feel under increasing pressure from "backbench" CA 
members, civil society activists, and "even the public" to 
resolve their disputes.  The escalating Maoist violence 
surrounding protests against the Prime Minister and President 
also concerns the parties, even the Maoists who fear losing 
control over their more radical members. 
 
Bread-and-Butter Concerns -- Not Constitution 
--------------------------------------------- 
¶4. (SBU) During a recent round of public meetings in rural 
Nepal, one democracy organization representative reported 
that none of the communities wanted to discuss the peace 
process or constitution.  Instead, communities focused on 
bread-and-butter issues that affect their daily lives, such 
as employment, domestic violence, flooding, and even how to 
increase tourism.  The Nepali population is increasingly 
frustrated with the constant strikes and "selfish politics," 
the representative reported. 
 
Maoists Fading or Gaining Strength? 
----------------------------------- 
¶5. (SBU) The participants agreed that the Maoists remain 
better organized than the other parties.  They are the only 
party with a consistent presence in villages and are "much 
more in tune" with local concerns than the others, one 
representative of an organization working in the Terai 
reported.  However, the election-era alliances between the 
Maoists and the ethnically-based organizations, such as the 
Tharu groups, have frayed, since the Maoists "did not 
deliver" anything for their ethnic allies during their tenure 
in government. 
 
¶6. (SBU) Asked who would win an election held today, the 
participants generally agreed that the Maoists would likely 
win the most seats again, but perhaps with a smaller margin. 
The UML -- despite its internal divisions -- has made some 
effort to understand why it performed so poorly in the last 
election and has tried to reform itself.  The UML would be 
particularly competitive against the Maoists in the urban 
areas, especially if Maoist intimidation could be minimized. 
The Nepali Congress, on the other hand, has done little to 
rethink its election strategy, and would likely come in 
third. 
 
Terrorists in Terai? 
-------------------- 
¶7. (SBU) Asked about the possibility of terrorists using the 
Terai as a base of operations, the representative from an 
organization working in the Terai said he had seen no 
evidence of terrorist groups, but noted that the conditions 
are conducive to illegal activities.  In many parts of rural 
Terai there is "virtually no state" -- no police presence and 
no state services.  The borders with India are essentially 
open, and the black market thrives.  Corruption is 
 
KATHMANDU 00000872  002 OF 002 
 
 
institutionalized at the highest levels in the local and 
district governments and among border and customs personnel. 
 
¶8. (SBU) One participant observed that the political rhetoric 
in Nepali mosques has changed markedly in recent years, with 
an increasing number of non-Nepali mullahs preaching in 
mosques.  While Nepal's Muslim population remains relatively 
low, approximately 4 percent of the population, the number of 
madrases is increasing.  In very poor Terai villages, it is 
increasingly common to see well-funded mosques provided by 
the "people of Saudi Arabia" or some Pakistani charitable 
organization. 
 
India's Role Critical, Complicated 
---------------------------------- 
¶9. (SBU) One participant argued that the Indian role in 
Nepali politics remains critical.  The September 13-15 visit 
of Indian Foreign Secretary Rao to Kathmandu was a positive 
sign that India is "taking seriously" the Nepali political 
crisis.  However, Rao reportedly met with each of the 
factions of the various parties separately, an unhelpful 
tactic since it could sharpen intra-party divisions, not heal 
them.  India's overriding interest in Nepal, is preventing a 
terrorist attack emanating from Nepal. 
 
View of Nepali Military 
----------------------- 
¶10. (SBU) The Nepali public's perception of the army has 
changed significantly in recent years -- from a monolithic 
"instrument of the monarchy" to an organization with diverse 
viewpoints, one participant reported.  His organization is 
putting on a workshop to discuss with political parties how 
"civilian control" of the military -- a key Maoist demand -- 
would work in practice.  The current Ministry of Defense has 
only 38 employees and little concept of how to exercise 
appropriate authority over the large and better organized 
Nepal Army. 
 
¶11. (SBU) Comment:  The increasing grassroots pressure on 
party leaders to resolve their differences is an encouraging 
and new development, although we fear that the politicians 
will -- instead of actually resolving the issues -- simply 
discuss another procedure to discuss the problems.  We agree 
that the Maoists remain the best organized party by far, but 
see some hints of slippage in their support, especially in 
urban areas.  End Comment. 
MOON