VZCZCXRO8186
RR RUEHDBU RUEHPW RUEHSL
DE RUEHBUL #2827/01 2601615
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 171615Z SEP 09
FM AMEMBASSY KABUL
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 1515
INFO RUCNAFG/AFGHANISTAN COLLECTIVE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 KABUL 002827 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR S/SRAP, SCA/FO, SCA/A, EUR/RPM 
STATE PASS TO AID FOR ASIA/SCAA 
USFOR-A FOR POLAD 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: KDEM PGOV PREL AF
SUBJECT:  AFGHAN ELECTIONS:  100 PERCENT PRELIMINARY COUNT COMPLETE; 
AUDIT AND RECOUNT TO FOLLOW 
 
REF:  KABUL 2789 
 
¶1. (SBU) Summary.  The Independent Electoral Commission (IEC) 
announced on Sept. 16 the long-awaited full preliminary presidential 
election results (i.e. 100 percent of polling stations).  Hamid 
Karzai maintains his lead at 54.62 percent, with Abdullah Abdullah 
at 27.75 percent and Ramazan Bashardost at 9.2 percent.  The counted 
votes do not include 579 polling stations the IEC had quarantined, 
which will now be scrutinized by the Electoral Complaints Commission 
(ECC), as well as 737 other polling stations that the IEC removed 
from the total number of polling stations.  Reducing this total 
number of polling stations allowed the IEC to announce the 100 
percent.  The IEC's Sept. 16 announcement is a positive development 
after days of foot-dragging have fueled conspiracy theories and 
eroded public confidence.  But the real challenges now are whether 
or not the IEC and ECC can work in concert and productively on the 
difficult tasks of auditing, recounting, and investigating 
problematic polling stations -- which will take a minimum of two 
weeks -- and, of course, whether the results of their work will be 
accepted by the stakeholders in this election.  While odds are still 
in favor of a first round victory, the outcome is not certain, as 
over 2500 polling stations may qualify for the audit/recount, and 
many votes from these polling stations reside within the preliminary 
count.  UNAMA hopes that agreed methodology and an IEC/ECC 
operational plan will be ready by Sept. 19.  End Summary. 
 
¶2.  (SBU) On Sept. 16 IEC Chief Electoral Officer Dr. Daoud Najafi 
announced full preliminary results of 5,662,758 valid votes, with 
Hamid Karzai at 54.62 percent (3,093,256 votes), Dr. Abdullah 
Abdullah at 27.75 percent (1,571,581 votes), Ramazan Bashardost at 
9.2 percent (520,627 votes), Ashraf Ghani at 2.7 percent (155,343 
votes), and Mirwais Yaseni at 0.89 percent (50,461 votes).  Other 
candidates received 271,490 votes, 173,200 votes were invalidated 
because they were improperly marked, and 82,783 votes were 
invalidated because they were for candidates who already dropped 
out.  The IEC announcement was supposed to take place on Sept. 14 
but it was delayed without clear explanation. 
 
¶3.  (SBU) The IEC said the full preliminary count represents results 
from 23,314 polling stations.  This represents a drop of 737 polling 
stations from the total number of estimated polling stations 
nationwide that was announced at the previous press conference. 
 
¶4.  (SBU) In addition to these numbers, and outside the count, 
another 579 polling stations remain under quarantine.  The IEC has 
"referred" these to the ECC for action. 
 
¶5.  (SBU) On Sept. 17, the ECC briefed that its Category A 
investigations had produced invalidations of three more polling 
stations in Ghazni and 14 in Kandahar.  It also dismissed three 
complaints in Ghazni.  We are working to determine whether votes 
from these polling stations have been included in the preliminary 
count.  The ECC said it would release the conclusions of its 
investigations in Herat, Baghlan, Nangarhar, and Kapisa provinces 
next week. 
 
Analysis 
-------- 
 
¶6.  (SBU) Najafi's announcement of complete preliminary results, 
while overdue, was a welcome development that provided key pieces of 
the puzzle to a public starved for information. 
 
¶7.  (SBU) As the IEC worked to reconcile the actual number of 
Tamper-Evident Bags (TEBs) it received with the number of polling 
stations that were open and properly secured on election day, it 
appears the IEC found a number of discrepancies, including "ghost" 
polling stations.   As a result, the IEC chose to reduce the total 
number of polling stations on several junctures in the counting 
process.  For the final preliminary count, the IEC dropped the 
number by a rather significant 737 -- from 24,630 (Sept. 12 figures) 
to 23,893 (Sept. 17 figures).  In sum, to reach its final 
preliminary result, the IEC excluded from the count at least 1316 
polling stations (including the 579 quarantined and referred to the 
ECC). 
 
¶8.  (SBU) IEC and ECC are still working out the criteria for the 
audit/recount, and we expect them to reach agreement on a way 
forward by Sept. 18.  Based on IEC and ECC comments, we continue to 
believe the audit/recount will affect around 2500 polling stations, 
some of which will be found to be in the preliminary results total. 
 
¶9.  (SBU) More than ever, it is essential that the IEC and ECC work 
together in harmonious and swift manner to accomplish the large task 
of completing the audits, recounts and investigations of Category A 
complaints.  This process can still be completed by end of 
September.  The number of polling stations that will be nullified 
 
KABUL 00002827  002 OF 002 
 
 
depends on the degree of fraud in the 2500 stations.  Our message to 
the ECC and IEC has been that we want to see a credible and speedy 
process.  We have supported transparency and statistically-based 
criteria.  We have urged the IEC/ECC to offer a technical briefing 
on their methodology.  Odds remain against a run-off, but there are 
still many variables, so a run-off is still possible.  Once results 
are officially certified, the key question that remains is whether 
or not stakeholders will readily accept the results of the IEC/ECC 
work. 
 
¶10.  (SBU) UNDP-ELECT's Margie Cook briefed today that election 
expert Carlos Valenzuela had arrived in country and that two others 
from UNDP-HQ in New York arrived to assist the ECC with the 
audit/recount process.  From conversations with senior ECC, IEC and 
UNAMA figures Sept. 17, we understand that behind the scenes 
discussions will permit Valenzuela to engage very rapidly to get IEC 
and ECC to complete discussions on audit/recount methodology and 
finish an operational plan.  UNAMA is hopeful that the SRSG will 
have results to share with diplomats on Sept. 19. 
 
EIKENBERRY