VZCZCXRO9440
PP RUEHDBU RUEHPW RUEHSL
DE RUEHBUL #2688/01 2480512
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 050512Z SEP 09
FM AMEMBASSY KABUL
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 1324
INFO RUCNAFG/AFGHANISTAN COLLECTIVE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 KABUL 002688 
 
SIPDIS 
SENSITIVE 
 
E.O. 12958 N/A 
TAGS: ENRG EAID PREL SENV AF
SUBJECT:  Afghan Government's High Hopes for Hydropower 
 
REF: A. Kabul 2363 B. Kabul 561 
 
¶1. (SBU) Summary:  At the August 5 inauguration of a USAID-funded 
diesel power plant in Kabul, President Karzai and Minister of Energy 
and Water Ismail Khan focused on large-scale water projects as the 
key to Afghanistan's energy future.  To implement its national 
hydropower strategy, AfghanistanQs government will need to 
strengthen its capacity in transboundary water rights diplomacy and 
improve upon existing water rights treaties with its neighbors. 
USAID plans to fund technical experts to support the Afghan 
governmentQs efforts to build both planning and negotiating capacity 
on key transboundary riparian issues.  End summary. 
 
¶2. (U) At the August 5 inauguration of a USAID-funded diesel power 
plant, President Karzai and Minister of Energy and Water Ismail Khan 
spoke at length about their hopes for hydropower.  The topic had 
also gained considerable focus during the presidential election 
campaigns: candidates Abdullah Abdullah and Ashraf Ghani Ahmadzai 
both cited hydropower as critical to Afghanistan's economic 
development future during a debate held in Kabul on August 10 (ref 
A). 
 
¶3. (U) Minister of Energy and Water Khan laid out his vision for 
Afghanistan's power future.  "Afghanistan must never rely on 
imports," he said, adding that in 10 to 15 years Afghanistan could 
harvest enough potential hydro resources to meet all domestic needs. 
 Referring to USAIDQs support to develop the Sheberghan gas fields 
in Jawzjan province, Khan then clarified, "some of my colleagues are 
interested in gas, but I want to emphasize hydro."  Recognizing the 
dual role dams play in providing power and agricultural irrigation, 
Khan concluded: "Afghanistan has a lot of resources, but we can't 
resolve our problems until we have enough water.  Once we have 
water, no one will grow poppies, no one will fight, no one will 
leave Afghanistan [for work]...water will resolve all problems in 
Afghanistan." 
 
¶4. (SBU) Although agreeing that AfghanistanQs water endowment would 
be sufficient with appropriately developed infrastructure, President 
KarzaiQs remarks were more measured.  He called for power "whether 
hydro or from generators," and added that Afghanistan could someday 
be an energy exporter.  Note: Neither official commented on the 
social and environmental issues that accompany large-scale hydro 
construction.  Officials at the Afghan National Environmental 
Protection Agency admit the agency does not have the resources or 
skills-base to address current problems, let alone access the 
complex environmental impacts of large dams.  End note. 
 
¶5. (SBU) Other Afghan officials and working-level ministry contacts 
increasingly call for donors to fund major hydropower projects to 
power Afghanistan.  Existing hydropower is Afghanistan's cheapest 
source of electricity (at less than five cents per kWh, it is half 
the price of imports and one-fifth the cost of energy from a 
high-efficiency diesel power plant.)  By Afghan Energy Information 
Center estimates, the country gets over 40 percent of its energy 
from hydropower (42.3 percent in the first seven months of 2009, 
down from 49 percent in 2006 as imports increased to meet growing 
demand.)  The Afghan government has identified a number of locations 
as potential sites for new hydropower dams and the Afghan National 
Development Strategy (ANDS) prioritizes four key hydropower 
infrastructure projects: Kokcha-e-Ulia (1,900MW) and Kokcha-e-Sofla 
(100MW) in Badakhshan, Baghdara (210MW) in Baghlan, and Sorobi II 
(180MW) in Kabul province.  Donors have been reluctant to start 
large hydropower projects, however, in the absence of workable 
water-use treaties or agreements with downstream neighbors. 
 
¶6. (U) USAID, working with the Army Corps of Engineers, is assessing 
the viability of multipurpose dams (irrigation/power/potable water). 
 Currently, USAID is rehabilitating the Darunta hydropower plant in 
Nangarhar province (11MW to be completed by early 2010) and the 
Kajaki hydropower plant on the Helmand River.  Kajaki consists of 
three turbines: Unit 1 (16.6MW) has been completed and is providing 
power to the grid, Unit 2 (18.5MW) installation has been suspended 
after the Chinese subcontractor left the country, and Unit 3 
(16.5MW) is scheduled for completion during fall 2009.  The 
transmission line from Kajaki into the South East Power System 
(SEPS) can transmit only 24MW and will need to be upgraded before 
the units can provide their full power load to the grid.  Insurgent 
activities in the area have caused significant delays and increased 
construction costs. 
 
¶7. (SBU) USAID and the Army Corps of Engineers are also providing 
technical support to the Secretariat of the Supreme Council on Water 
Management.  The U.S. team also participates in a Water Sector 
Donors Group, which brings together interested governments, private 
groups, and organizations to work with the GIRoA on transboundary 
water issues.  To help build the Afghan government's capacity, USAID 
is working to place two international advisors on transboundary 
riparian rights negotiations with the Ministry of Energy and Water 
and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. 
 
Comment 
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KABUL 00002688  002 OF 002 
 
 
 
¶8. (SBU) Afghan government interest in hydropower is unlikely to 
 
change regardless of the results of the elections and whether 
Minister Khan keeps his portfolio.  International donors will need 
to address officials' growing expectations for the resource.  As 
high-level officials increasingly make public statements about 
Afghanistan's need for major dams, the Afghan government will need 
more help in addressing the concerns of its neighbors while managing 
the expectations of the Afghan populace.  Although any major 
hydrologic project will require Afghanistan to launch negotiations 
with its neighbors, contacts in the palace and the Ministry of 
Energy and Water are adamant that they are "not ready to touch water 
questions" with Afghanistan's neighbors.  The USG and the donor 
community will need to help the Afghan government build its capacity 
to take on negotiations with its neighbors as part of moving ahead 
with any major water projects. 
 
Eikenberry