VZCZCXRO6847
OO RUEHCHI RUEHCN RUEHDT RUEHHM
DE RUEHJA #1562/01 2591041
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
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FM AMEMBASSY JAKARTA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 3351
INFO RUEHZS/ASSOCIATION OF SOUTHEAST ASIAN NATIONS COLL
RUCPDOC/DEPT OF COMMERCE WASHINGTON DC
RUEHRC/USDA FAS WASHDC
RUEATRS/DEPT OF TREASURY WASHINGTON DC
RUEHNY/AMEMBASSY OSLO 0186
RUEHBR/AMEMBASSY BRASILIA 0227
RUEHKO/AMEMBASSY TOKYO 3078
RUEHBJ/AMEMBASSY BEIJING 5980
RUEHBY/AMEMBASSY CANBERRA 3661
RUEHUL/AMEMBASSY SEOUL 5409
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 JAKARTA 001562 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR SECC, OES/EGC, AND EAP/MTS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: EAGR EAID KGHG SENV PREL ID
SUBJECT: Climate Change - Taking Advantage of SBY's Moment 
 
REF: A. Jakarta 1421 
     ¶B. Jakarta 1473 
 
¶1. (U) This is an action message; please see para 8. 
 
¶2. (SBU) Summary: The U.S. has an opportunity to shape newly 
re-elected President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono's (SBY) climate 
agenda.  The U.S. could seek a Yudhoyono presidential declaration - 
perhaps timed for President Obama's potential visit in November - to 
limit new plantations to previously degraded land.  This will 
significantly reduce emissions by preserving Indonesia's forests and 
peat lands.  An enhanced U.S. partnership on environmental 
management and climate will help Yudhoyono confront vested logging, 
plantation and bureaucratic interests.  Our partnership with 
Indonesia could catalyze additional hundreds of millions of dollars 
in donor support from other nations.  A Yudhoyono announcement could 
provide a boost to Copenhagen negotiations in December.  End 
Summary. 
 
¶3. (SBU) As the third largest global emitter, Indonesia is key to 
any global solution for climate change.  While Indonesia alone does 
not have the influence to determine a global deal on climate, its 
non-participation or failure to achieve reductions would cause any 
global solution to fail.  Roughly 80% of Indonesia's green house gas 
(GHG) emissions come from the annual degradation of forests and peat 
lands, and that number accounts for about 5% of world emissions. 
While industrial sources of emissions in Indonesia are predicted to 
rise several fold in the coming few decades, destruction of forests 
and peat negatively impact the world today.  In addition, the cost 
for GHG reductions from forests and peat could be much cheaper than 
other sources of global reductions. 
 
A Chance to Leave Behind a Lasting Legacy 
----------------------------------------- 
 
¶4. (SBU) Indonesian President Yudhoyono won his re-election by 
majority popular vote, giving him an increased (but certainly not 
absolute) ability to confront vested interests.  Yudhoyono has a 
strong record of international leadership on climate with the 
hosting of COP-13, the Bali Action Plan, the Forest-11, the Coral 
Triangle Initiative and the World Ocean Conference.  He will be 
looking to leave a legacy by the end of his final term in office in 
2014, and we assess that he would consider Indonesian leadership and 
contributions to a global climate solution as a potential 
achievement. 
 
Indonesian Declaration on Peat and Forests 
------------------------------------------ 
 
¶5. (SBU) In the past few years, Yudhoyono has privately stated that 
he agrees that every country must take on binding emission reduction 
commitments, though at differing levels for advanced and developing 
countries.  Indonesia indicated that it may be willing to commit to 
a specific reduction of 40% from its business-as-usual (BAU) 
scenario if it receives assistance from donor countries.  In order 
to be credible, Indonesia needs to take some initial steps to reduce 
its emissions.  Yudhoyono's senior advisors say a presidential 
declaration, having the force of law, to reduce emissions from 
forests and peat lands is in the realm of possibility, but would 
require high-level support and encouragement from the U.S. and other 
donors (Ref A).  Such a declaration would set a clear direction for 
Indonesia at the outset of Yudhoyono's new administration.  Such a 
concrete positive step could help inject momentum into Copenhagen 
discussions and lay the groundwork for putting peer pressure on 
other key actors in the negotiations. 
 
¶6. (SBU) But Yudhoyono would need clear support from the U.S. to 
take this bold step.  Advisors and Indonesia climate experts 
repeatedly say that Yudhoyono must be armed with viable alternatives 
for the vested interests if he is to effectively change behavior. 
Ideally, pending US climate legislation that creates a carbon market 
with international offsets, including "avoided deforestation," would 
provide the incentives to Indonesia for saving its forests and peat 
lands.  Short of a ready announcement on U.S. legislation, there is 
a smaller, but significant package of U.S. assistance that could be 
characterized as seed support. 
 
U.S. Support Augmented by International Donors 
--------------------------------------------- - 
 
 
JAKARTA 00001562  002 OF 002 
 
 
¶7. (SBU) These bilateral activities include USAID's $150 million in 
climate related assistance on mitigation on forestry and energy and 
adaptation on marine and water/sanitation.  In addition to the 
Tropical Forest Conservation Act (TFCA) recently launched in Sumatra 
for $30 million, the U.S. could announce the beginning of work for a 
TFCA for Papua.  We also recently proposed an Indonesia-U.S. Center 
for Sustainable Ocean Fisheries to assist with food security (Ref 
B).  However, the totaling of the assistance packages by other major 
donor nations could possibly reach up to a billion dollars.  This 
would make an even more compelling case for Indonesia to take 
positive game-changing action.  Senior Indonesian climate officials 
have indicated privately that such numbers would help turn 
Indonesian thinking toward the benefits of conservation instead of 
cutting forests down for the wood or draining peat lands for 
plantations.  International donors resident in Jakarta have said 
they welcome U.S. leadership in pressing Indonesia for policy change 
and renewed engagement on donor assistance on climate. 
 
¶8. (SBU) Action Request: Senior U.S. climate officials should 
propose the concept of advancing the U.S.-Indonesia climate 
partnership through the presidential declaration and U.S. support 
package at the next opportunity with senior Indonesian officials. 
Post understands that Minister of Environment and Chief Climate 
Negotiator Rachmat Witoelar will attend the September MEF, G-20 
meeting, and UN meetings. 
 
OSIUS