VZCZCXRO3511
OO RUEHBZ RUEHDU RUEHJO RUEHMR RUEHRN
DE RUEHSB #0768/01 2671508
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 241508Z SEP 09
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 4944
INFO RUCNSAD/SOUTHERN AF DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY COLLECTIVE
RUEHAR/AMEMBASSY ACCRA 3045
RUEHDS/AMEMBASSY ADDIS ABABA 3158
RUEHRL/AMEMBASSY BERLIN 1587
RUEHBY/AMEMBASSY CANBERRA 2421
RUEHDK/AMEMBASSY DAKAR 2790
RUEHKM/AMEMBASSY KAMPALA 3206
RUEHNR/AMEMBASSY NAIROBI 5651
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RUZEJAA/JAC MOLESWORTH RAF MOLESWORTH UK
RHMFISS/EUCOM POLAD VAIHINGEN GE
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHDC
RUEHGV/USMISSION GENEVA 2338
RHEHAAA/NSC WASHDC

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 HARARE 000768 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
AF/S FOR B. WALCH 
DRL FOR N. WILETT 
ADDIS ABABA FOR USAU 
ADDIS ABABA FOR ACSS 
STATE PASS TO USAID FOR J. HARMON AND L. DOBBINS 
STATE PASS TO NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR MICHELLE GAVIN 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: ECON PGOV PHUM PREL EAID ASEC ZI
SUBJECT: SURVEY SHOWS DRAMATIC DECLINE IN PUBLIC SUPPORT 
FOR MUGABE AND ZANU-PF 
 
------- 
SUMMARY 
------- 
 
¶1.  (SBU) According to a survey conducted by the Mass Public 
Opinion Institute (MPOI) in May 2009, if an election for 
president was held in Zimbabwe today, support for ZANU-PF 
would be at an all-time low -- just over 10 percent -- while 
the MDC would enjoy 57 percent support.  Large majorities in 
both urban and rural areas said they supported the inclusive 
government, and an even larger majority (78 percent) 
indicated that they trusted Tsvangirai somewhat or a lot.  By 
comparison, only 35 percent indicated that they trusted 
Mugabe.  On job performance, approximately 82 percent 
approved of Tsvangirai's efforts in office, while only a 
quarter approved of Mugabe's job performance.  Two-thirds of 
respondents supported lifting sanctions.  On the economy, 
responses indicated greater optimism about Zimbabwe's 
economic future and the quality of life for Zimbabweans.  END 
SUMMARY. 
 
¶2. (SBU) Researchers from the Harare-based MPOI presented 
findings of a May 2009 nationwide public opinion survey, 
entitled "The Quality of Democracy and Governance in 
Zimbabwe," to a group of like-minded donor nations on 
September 22.  The survey examined attitudes regarding voting 
intentions, performance of the inclusive government, 
international sanctions, and current economic conditions.  It 
was conducted from May 9 to May 23, 2009 in Zimbabwe as part 
of the Afro-Barometer Round 4 process.  (NOTE: Afro-Barometer 
(http://www.afrobarometer.org) is a public opinion research 
project covering 20 countries, which receives funding from 
USAID, among other donors.  The Senior Advisor to the project 
is Michael Bratton, Professor of Political Science at 
Michigan State University.  END NOTE.) 
 
¶3.  (SBU) The survey results are expected to be made public 
on September 29.  Until release, they should be kept close 
hold. 
 
---------------------- 
The Survey Methodology 
---------------------- 
 
¶4.  (SBU) The MOI survey involved a nation-wide random 
sample of 1,200 adult Zimbabweans aged 18 and above who were 
chosen using a "Probability Proportionate to Population Size" 
(PPPS) methodology.  The researchers used the 2008 Zimbabwe 
population projected figures from the 2002 census figures. 
150 enumeration areas (EA) were randomly sampled and eight 
interviews were conducted in each EA. 
 
---------------------------------- 
ZANU-PF and Mugabe Support Eroded, 
Even in "Strongholds" 
---------------------------------- 
 
¶5.  (SBU) Respondents were asked for which party they would 
vote if presidential elections were held tomorrow.  While 25 
percent refused to respond, 57 percent said they would vote 
for MDC-T and only 10 percent said they would vote for 
ZANU-PF.  Four percent didn't know, four percent said they 
would not participate, and other parties, including MDC-M, 
PF-ZAPU, and Kusile Mavambo Dawn, received less than one 
percent nationally.  (COMMENT:  It is reasonable to assume 
Qpercent nationally.  (COMMENT:  It is reasonable to assume 
that, given past electoral violence targeted against MDC 
supporters, most of the non-respondents would support the 
MDC-T.  END COMMENT.) 
 
 
HARARE 00000768  002 OF 004 
 
 
¶6.  (SBU) When disaggregated by urban versus rural location 
or by age, support for the MDC-T remained steady between 56 
and 59 percent, with the exception of voters over 51 years of 
age (48 percent).  ZANU-PF commanded only 13 percent support 
from rural voters, 4 percent from urban voters, and 14 
percent from voters over the age of 50.  ZANU-PF's highest 
levels of support were in Mashonaland Central (20 percent) 
and Matabeleland South (17 percent).  (COMMENT: These results 
belie the continued belief by some analysts and academics 
that ZANU-PF still enjoys considerable support in rural areas 
and in particular within the three Mashonaland provinces. 
END COMMENT.) 
 
¶7.  (SBU) When asked if they trusted the President and the 
Prime Minister, 37 percent responded that they trusted Mugabe 
"somewhat" or "a lot" versus 78 percent for Tsvangirai.  The 
gulf in opinion regarding the President and the Prime 
Minister was even greater when respondents were asked how 
well each was doing his job; 81 percent approved or strongly 
approved of Tsvangirai's performance while only 23 percent 
approved of Mugabe's efforts.  (COMMENT: Surprisingly, 
Mugabe's levels of trust and approval were both substantially 
higher than ZANU-PF's projected 10 percent support from 
voters, suggesting Zimbabweans have somewhat more residual 
affection for Mugabe than they do for his party.  END 
COMMENT.) 
 
-------------------------------------- 
Public Supports GNU, But Not Sanctions 
-------------------------------------- 
 
¶8.  (SBU) Public support for the inclusive government was 
high with two-thirds of all respondents and equal numbers in 
both urban and rural areas saying it was the "best option to 
resolve the political crisis."  A majority of respondents 
from every province -- ranging from 53 to 74 percent -- 
supported the inclusive government.  The three Mashonaland 
provinces, where much of last year's election violence 
occurred, recorded the highest percentage of support for the 
new government, ranging from 71 to 74 percent. 
 
¶9.  (SBU) When asked to choose whether sanctions were hurting 
ordinary Zimbabweans and should be removed, or whether 
sanctions only targeted a few individuals resistant to change 
and should be maintained, over two-thirds called for the 
removal of sanctions.  Slightly less than a quarter said they 
should remain.  Despite their agreement with negative 
official rhetoric on sanctions, most Zimbabweans were aware 
of U.S. assistance.  When asked how much the U.S. does to 
help Zimbabwe, 57 percent said somewhat or a lot.  Similar 
numbers of Zimbabweans credit SADC and the UN with helping; 
South Africa (77 percent) and donors and NGOs other than the 
UN (80 percent) get more credit than the U.S., while China 
(45 percent) and the UK (37 percent) get less. 
 
¶10.  (SBU) MPOI researchers noted a significant increase in 
what they term the "political patience" of the population. 
Qwhat they term the "political patience" of the population. 
For instance, when asked whether the government should be 
given more time to deal with inherited problems, two-thirds 
of respondents agreed (compared to only 30 percent in 2005 
and 52 percent in 2004).  Another indicator of political 
patience was that four years ago, 65 percent of those 
interviewed said that "if the present system cannot produce 
results, another system should be tried."  This year, only 30 
percent agreed with that statement.  (COMMENT:  The increase 
in "political patience" would appear to be a result of 
support for the new government.  END COMMENT.) 
 
------------------------------------ 
 
HARARE 00000768  003 OF 004 
 
 
Respondents More Positive on Economy 
------------------------------------ 
 
¶11.  (SBU) Public attitudes on the economy were less negative 
than one might have expected, with roughly equal numbers of 
respondents saying macro-economic conditions were "bad" or 
"very bad" (43 percent) compared to those who described 
conditions as "good" or "very good."  The percentage of 
people describing conditions as bad in May 2009 was much 
lower than those registered in 1999 and 2005, during both of 
which years 94 percent of respondents described 
macro-economic conditions negatively.  Curiously, responses 
in 2009 are only slightly more favorable about the economy 
that they were in 2004, when 49 percent were negative. 
 
¶12.  (SBU) In describing their own situations, respondents 
were again more optimistic than one might have expected with 
slightly more people describing their personal economic 
conditions as "good" or "very good" (38 percent), than those 
describing them as "bad" or "very bad" (36 percent).  Once 
again, the percentage of people saying personal conditions 
were "bad or "very bad" was markedly lower than in earlier 
years (in  2004 and 2005, 54 and 88 percent of those 
interviewed, respectively, called conditions bad or very 
bad).  (COMMENT: Given that only 12 percent of survey 
respondents said they worked full time for a cash income 
while just 10 percent earned cash for part-time work, 
people's relative optimism is remarkable and probably a 
result of faith in the new government.  END COMMENT.) 
 
---------------------- 
Evidence of Alienation 
---------------------- 
 
¶13. (SBU) Optimism about the new government did not overcome 
negative perceptions of fairness and rule of law in Zimbabwe. 
 When asked whether government officials who commit crimes go 
unpunished, only 19 percent said rarely or never while 
seventy percent said often or always.  When the same question 
was asked about ordinary people, 60 percent responded that 
ordinary people who break the law rarely or never go 
unpunished.  Asked how much they personally fear becoming a 
victim of political violence or intimidation during an 
election campaign, sixty-eight percent said a lot and only 9 
percent said not at all.  Asked how many government officials 
are involved in corruption, 36 percent said most or all, 45 
percent said some, and only 5 percent said none.  Elected 
officials received a similar rating, police were considered 
even more corrupt, while traditional leaders and 
judges/magistrates were considered less corrupt. 
 
------- 
COMMENT 
------- 
 
¶14.  (SBU) The lack of support for Mugabe and ZANU-PF in 
former areas of staunch support, such as Mashonaland, is 
startling.  The wave of violence unleashed in Mashonaland and 
other provinces in 2008 following the elections, combined 
with an economy that steadily declined during this decade, 
which many believe was the result of ZANU-PF mismanagement 
Qwhich many believe was the result of ZANU-PF mismanagement 
and corruption, has cost Mugabe and his party dearly.  If a 
reasonably "free and fair" election were held today, Mugabe 
and ZANU-PF would be swept from power. 
 
¶15.  (SBU) In stark contrast, Tsvangirai enjoyed a high 
degree of public support in May.  We suspect that remains 
true today as Tsvangirai appears to be getting credit for an 
increase in political space and marginal economic 
 
HARARE 00000768  004 OF 004 
 
 
improvements.  It is noteworthy that he has drawn large 
crowds at rallies throughout the country.  But people are 
looking for continued improvements in availability of food, 
education, health, and infrastructure; if improvements do not 
take place, his popularity and that of the MDC could wane.  A 
new poll will be conducted in October 2009.  END COMMENT. 
 
PETTERSON