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RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE PRIORITY

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 BRUSSELS 001239 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR EUR/ERA, EUR/RPM 
 
E.O.: 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL EUN
SUBJECT: EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT SET TO CONFIRM BARROSO SEPT. 16 AS 
COMMISSION HEAD; MARGIN OF VICTORY COUNTS 
 
REF: USEU BRUSSELS 877 and 975 
 
Sensitive but Unclassified. Please handle accordingly. 
 
¶1. (U) Summary:  The European Parliament (EP) will likely re-elect 
European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso on September 16. 
Under current Treaty of Nice rules, Barroso needs only a simple 
majority of the MEPs present to be re-elected, which he should have. 
 However, Barroso, the only declared candidate for the post, will 
aim for an absolute majority to win more credibility and avoid any 
calls for a re-vote under the Lisbon Treaty.  The Socialist group 
continues to negotiate its eventual support of Barroso's candidacy 
in exchange for Socialist gains in the next Commission.  The 
European Parliament will likely vote later this year to confirm the 
next group of Commissioners.  End Summary 
 
¶2. (U) After two-and-a-half months of uncertainty, the European 
Parliament political group leaders decided September 10 that the 
plenary vote to approve European Commission President Barroso's new 
five-year term would take place on September 16.  The Socialists and 
Greens tried once again to postpone the vote until after the Irish 
Lisbon reaty referendum October 2; unlike in June, they were 
unsuccessful. 
 
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VICTORY SECURED BUT SEEKING LARGER MAJORITY 
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¶3. (U) Barroso should be able to secure a simple majority of votes 
cast, as required under the Nice Treaty.  However, Barroso's 
political credibility will be enhanced if he secures an absolute 
majority, as required in the Lisbon Treaty, especially if the next 
Commission were to be elected later under the rules of the 
soon-to-be-decided Lisbon Treaty. 
 
¶4. (U) The vote on September 16 will be by secret ballot, and there 
will be some abstentions, making the outcome somewhat less than 
certain.  With his current apparent support, however, Barroso is 
close to an absolute majority of 369 votes.  Both his own 
center-right EPP group (265 seats) and the new ECR conservative 
group (54 seats) have declared their support.  Barroso has also 
secured a majority of the 84 Liberal and Democrats (ALDE) MEPs, 
according to their leader Guy Verhofstadt.  The 55 members of the 
Greens-EFA and the 35 members of the radical left (GUE-NGL), 
however, will likely vote against his re-election. 
 
¶5. (U) Barroso won promises of most of the Liberal and Democrats 
(ALDE) group's support by including some of their demands in his 
proposed program, including the creation of a new post of 
Commissioner for Human Rights and Civil Liberties.  He also promised 
to create a European financial supervisor and work on a special EU 
tax to guarantee the EU's own resources in the next five-year 
financial plan, starting in 2013. That said, six French MoDem 
members of ALDE, and a few others, have said they will vote no. 
 
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SOCIALISTS, ALBEIT DIVIDED, CAN MAKE THE DIFFERENCE 
------------------------------------- 
 
¶6. (U) Barroso's ability to reach an absolute majority may depend on 
the Socialists, who are divided on the question.  Spanish and 
Portuguese Socialist MEPs say they will vote in favor of Barroso, 
for example.  Socialist group leader Martin Schulz told the press 
his negotiating position with Barroso is weak since, for one reason, 
seven Socialist heads of government already support Barroso.  Schulz 
said he hoped to offer Barroso his group's support in exchange for 
written assurances of social measures, such as a new 
irective,stion of a second vote pass. 
 
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COMMENT 
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¶8. (SBU) The decision by the European Parliament to vote on Barroso 
September 16 will reassure those who want the European Commission to 
have a confirmed leader at the upcoming G20 and Copenhagen summits, 
and that consideration alone might produce an absolute majority. 
After the vote, Barroso will, in close collaboration with EU Member 
 
BRUSSELS 00001239  002 OF 002 
 
 
States, form a new College of Commissioners.  Should the Lisbon 
Treaty pass, the European Council meeting October 29-30 could extend 
the term of the current Commissioners by a couple of months to allow 
time to enter Lisbon into force.  Whatever the Treaty, Nice or 
Lisbon, the EP will eventually vote to confirm the next College of 
Commissioners.   According to the EP Secretary General, the EP will 
likely flex its muscles by rejecting one or two nominated 
Commissioners, as it did in 2004.  Although the EP can only vote on 
the entire Commission, not on specific Commissioners, it was able 
then to force some member states to propose new names and Barroso to 
reshuffle portfolios by threatening to reject the proposed College. 
In any event, a new Commission should start working officially by 
January 2010. 
 
MURRAY