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UNCLAS BOGOTA 003047 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PTER PREL PHUM CO
SUBJECT: URIBE'S PARTY WINS BIG IN POLITICAL MUSICAL CHAIRS 
 
REF: BOGOTA 2833 
 
SUMMARY 
 
------- 
 
 
 
¶1. President Uribe's "U" party consolidated its Congressional base 
as part of a political reform that gave members until September 14 
to change parties.  While the changes left the balance of power 
between Uribe's coalition and the opposition in the Congress 
unchanged, the "U" and Conservative Parties increased membership by 
absorbing members from smaller partners.  The opposition Liberal 
Party maintained its position while engineering a key acquisition: 
the Presidency of the House.  Small parties and the Radical Change 
party (divided over whether or not to support the reelection of 
Uribe) were the biggest losers in the process.  While some 
political reforms -- allowing coalition candidates, mandating 
public roll call votes and sanctioning parties whose members engage 
in illicit activities -- have taken effect, others -- involving 
campaign finance, sanctions for electoral violations, increasing 
internal party democracy, gender equity, and marginalized 
territories -- must be worked out in an implementing bill.  These 
reforms will significantly impact the 2010 legislative elections. 
End Summary. 
 
 
 
DEADLINE PASSES FOR POLITICAL MEAT MARKET 
 
----------------------------------------- 
 
 
 
¶2.  On September 14, the deadline passed on a two-month period to 
change party banners under a July 14 constitutional reform. 
Approximately 57 congressmen, hundreds of departmental 
parliamentarians, and thousands of municipal counselors took 
advantage of the singular opportunity to change parties and keep 
their seats (they normally must resign their seats according to 
electoral rules).  The overall political reform was designed to 
strengthen political parties and increase their accountability in 
light of the parapolitical scandal that rocked the 2006-10 Congress 
in which congressmen were accused of colluding with paramilitaries. 
The larger parties supported the party-switching clause against the 
objections of smaller parties and the Alternative Democratic Pole 
(PDA).  The party defections have set the stage for upcoming 
legislative agenda battles and national legislative elections next 
March. 
 
 
 
THE CONGRESSIONAL BOX SCORE 
 
--------------------------- 
 
 
 
¶3.  These are the figures reported to us by the Electoral 
Observation Mission (MOE), an independent monitoring organization: 
 
 
 
                HOUSE(166)     SENATE (102) 
 
                ------------   ------------ 
 
URIBE ALLIED    Before-After   Before-After 
 
--The U           34    44       20    30 
 
--Conservative    32    36       18    23 
 
--Rad. Change     18    12       15    10 
 
--Other           24    17       17     7 
 
-TOTAL COALITION  108   109      70    70 
 
OTHER 
 
--Liberal         36    39       18    18 
--PDA              8     7       10    10 
 
--Other           14    11        4     4 
 
-TOTAL OTHER      58    57       32    32 
 
 
 
URIBE COALITION CONSOLIDATES 
 
---------------------------- 
 
 
 
¶4.  The overall balance of power in Congress did not change 
significantly and the Uribe legislative coalition continues to 
control approximately 68% of the Senate and 66% of the House. 
However, the coalition emerged more concentrated and united around 
the "U" and Conservative Parties, which gained seats at the expense 
of their smaller partners.  The two parties alone now control 
approximately 52% (up from 37%) of the Senate and 48% (up from 40%) 
of the House.  Previously, the coalition majority depended on three 
major parties and seven minor ones making vote whipping and 
maintaining coalition discipline difficult as seen in the final 
push to pass the presidential reelection referendum (see reftel). 
 
 
 
¶5.  Party presidents Luis Carlos Restrepo of the U and Efrain 
Cepeda of the Conservatives can now better coordinate their 
political machinery to turn out the popular vote for the possible 
re-election referendum, and for 2010 congressional and presidential 
elections.  The consolidation also diminishes the possibility of 
losing smaller partners that cannot meet the minimum vote threshold 
for official legal status in the next election.  The consolidation 
has also created some political conundrums, as some original party 
members will now have to compete with their new colleagues for the 
same votes in next year's elections.  Acknowledging these problems, 
Restrepo said publicly that the reconciliation of party lists with 
new members will be a difficult task. 
 
 
 
¶6.  The remaining small Uribe parties are seeking ways to survive 
and remain relevant.  Citizen Convergence, with 17 seats, is the 
largest remaining of them.  The party lost members to the U and 
Conservative Parties but also gained seats from smaller parties. 
The party announced that it is seeking to combine with other 
remaining small parties under a new name and replace Radical Change 
as the number three party in the coalition. 
 
 
 
OPPOSITION DEFIANT 
 
------------------ 
 
 
 
¶7.  Cesar Gaviria, opposition Liberal Party President, declared, 
"The National Government tried to end my party, but the result was 
the opposite."  Before the reform, the Liberals were the single 
largest party in Congress with 54 seats.  Although now surpassed by 
the U, the Liberals gained three seats, including the President of 
the House, Edgar Gomez.  Although Gomez --who left Uribe-allied 
Citizen Convergence-- is now officially in the opposition, he has 
been supportive of continuing Uribe policies, and has publicly said 
that he would not actively oppose the GOC but rather would 
concentrate on promoting open debates in the House.  Gaviria told 
the press that Gomez's move to the party was engineered on July 20 
during Congressional leadership elections.  The Liberals gave Gomez 
their support knowing that he would switch allegiances later.  The 
PDA, the far left opposition party, lost one congressional seat. 
 
 
 
RADICAL CHANGE PARTY DISMEMBERED 
 
-------------------------------- 
 
 
 
¶8.  Radical Change is the biggest loser of the major parties, 
dropping by eleven members of Congress with commensurate losses at 
the local level.  The party, a member of the Uribe congressional 
coalition, had already been torn apart internally between those who 
opposed the reelection referendum -- led by party president and 
presidential candidate German Vargas Lleras -- and those who 
supported it.  The party began disciplinary hearings against five 
representatives who defied party orders and voted for the 
referendum prompting them and four others to desert to the U Party 
before the deadline.  Now that the staunch Uribe loyalists have 
left the party, the party continues with less power, but more 
united behind the presidential candidacy of Vargas Lleras.  Vargas 
Lleras announced that the party was not passing to the opposition 
but that it disagreed with the possible reelection of President 
Uribe. 
 
 
 
SMALL PARTIES AN ENDANGERED SPECIES 
 
----------------------------------- 
 
 
 
¶9.  At least 8 of the currently 16 legally recognized parties are 
at risk of disappearing after losing members to larger parties. 
Party consolidation was a key objective of both the 2009 and 
previous 2003 political reforms.  Consolidation is intended to 
create stability in the party system and define clear party 
platforms and divisions between the government and opposition. 
Fewer parties will also help the National Electoral Council (CNE) 
to distribute state funds for campaigns efficiently (the Colombian 
system is a mix of public and private funding) and enforce 
electoral laws. 
 
 
 
LOCAL IMPACT 
 
------------ 
 
 
 
¶10.  National trends were also played out at the local level.  The 
U Party added to their growing local presence -- 2007 was the first 
time they participated in local elections -- drastically increasing 
their number of municipal counselors from 1,280 to 2,080 and 
departmental legislators from 59 to 101.  The traditional Liberal 
Party also fared well and remains the strongest party locally, 
adding 500 municipal counselors for a total of 3,000. 
 
 
 
ELECTION SEASON LOOMS BUT RULES OF THE GAME UNKNOWN 
 
--------------------------------------------- ------ 
 
 
 
¶11.  Many 2009 reforms require a second law to establish 
implementing regulations.  Congress is currently considering two 
versions of the law, one presented by the GOC and the other by 
members of Congress from across the political spectrum and written 
in collaboration with the United Nations Development Program.  The 
GOC and political parties are in negotiations to reconcile the 
texts but election rules will remain unclear until a compromise is 
reached.  Reforms needing implementing regulations involve campaign 
finance, sanctions for electoral law violations, and rules to 
increase internal party democracy.  Also undefined are the 
principles of gender equity and a "special regimen" for 
marginalized territories.  One change that will have a significant 
impact on the next presidential election is the ability to have a 
multi-party primary to select a coalition candidate. 
 
 
 
¶12.  Some new rules, similar to party switching, have already made 
an impact.  The first was the requirement for public and 
individually counted votes to allow public review of voting records 
and for parties to manage party discipline.  Before the reform, 
legislators would often simply bang on their desks to indicate 
approval for a measure.  Another is the "vacant seat" provision to 
punish parties whose members are convicted of crimes related to 
narcotrafficking, illegally armed groups, and crimes against 
humanity.  Previously, when an office holder was removed, the party 
simply replaced that person with the next candidate on the party's 
election list.  With the new provision, the party would lose the 
seat permanently, and the quorum and majorities would be adjusted 
accordingly.  In 2014, a higher threshold (3% of total votes as 
opposed to 2%) will further limit the number of officially 
recognized political parties. 
BROWNFIELD