VZCZCXRO7623
RR RUEHAG RUEHDF RUEHLZ
DE RUEHRL #1205/01 2730638
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 300638Z SEP 09
FM AMEMBASSY BERLIN
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 5330
INFO RHEHAAA/WHITE HOUSE WASHINGTON DC
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHINGTON DC
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC
RUEATRS/DEPT OF TREASURY WASHINGTON DC
RUCNFRG/FRG COLLECTIVE
RUEHBS/AMEMBASSY BRUSSELS 1577
RUEHLO/AMEMBASSY LONDON 0271
RUEHFR/AMEMBASSY PARIS 0792
RUEHRO/AMEMBASSY ROME 2318
RUEHNO/USMISSION USNATO 1325
RUEHVEN/USMISSION USOSCE 0510
RHMFIUU/HQ USAFE RAMSTEIN AB GE
RHMFISS/HQ USEUCOM VAIHINGEN GE//J5 DIRECTORATE (MC)//
RHMFISS/CDRUSAREUR HEIDELBERG GE
RUKAAKC/UDITDUSAREUR HEIDELBERG GE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 BERLIN 001205 
 
STATE FOR INR/R/MR, EUR/PAPD, EUR/PPA, EUR/CE, INR/EUC, INR/P, 
SECDEF FOR USDP/ISA/DSAA, DIA FOR DC-4A 
 
VIENNA FOR CSBM, CSCE, PAA 
 
"PERISHABLE INFORMATION -- DO NOT SERVICE" 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.0. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: OPRC KMDR KPAO IR AF GM
SUBJECT: MEDIA REACTION: IRAN, AFGHANISTAN, GERMANY;Berlin 
 
¶1.   Lead Stories Summary 
¶2.   Iran)   Missile Tests 
¶3.   (Afghanistan)   Elections, ISAF 
¶4.   (Germany)   Aftermath of Bundestag Elections 
 
 
¶1.   Lead Stories Summary 
 
All media led with stories on the aftermath of the Bundestag 
elections, focusing on the plans by CDU/CSU and FDP to quickly 
start coalition talks and SPD Chairman Mntefering's slow 
retreat from party leadership.  Editorials focused on many 
aspects of the elections, particularly on the situation of the 
SPD after the devastating election results for the party. 
 
¶2.   (Iran)   Missile Tests 
 
Many media reported on "Iran's Threatening Gestures" 
(Frankfurter Allgemeine headline), saying that, "prior to the 
nuclear talks, Iran provokes with tests of missiles that could 
reach Israel" (Sddeutsche). 
 
Sddeutsche (9/29) reported: "Iran again fired Shahab-3 and 
potentially Sejil missiles on Monday.  With this, Tehran 
increases the tensions prior to the planned talks with the P5 
and Germany over its controversial nuclear program....  The 
visible efforts of the U.S. are supposed to increase pressure 
on Iran to give a clear signal during the talks on Thursday 
that the government is prepared to start negotiations over its 
nuclear program.  Israel and the U.S. did not rule out a 
military strike." 
 
Under the headline "China's turn," FT Deutschland (9/29) 
editorialized: "The message is clear: behind the recent 
Iranian missile tests stands the determination of Iranian 
President Ahmadinejad to broaden the confrontation with the 
West to a maximum.  Only optimists really expected Iran to 
make a move during the talks with the P5 and Germany on 
Thursday.  However, the targeted military provocation at this 
moment can only mean that the group of six might as well 
cancel the meeting with the Iranian negotiator.  Just as it 
was right for Obama to start talks with Iran, it is now clear 
that Tehran is not interested in serious talks.  Not the group 
of six, but the UN Security Council would be the right place 
for the talks.  The UNSC must quickly agree on tougher 
sanctions against Iran.  Ahmadinejad's threats are actually 
helpful because Iran is about to put off its remaining allies 
abroad.  Until now, Iran could rely on Russia and China to 
counter the efforts of the West to embark on a tougher course 
against Iran.  At least the Russians have now suggested that 
they are getting impatient with the Iranians.  Even those who 
have officially doubted the military nature of the program are 
now feeling deceived by Ahmadinejad.  Given Russia's change of 
policy, it is now China's turn.   If the Chinese are indeed 
ready to bear their international responsibilities, then they 
will stop obstructing the way for tougher actions against 
Iran." 
 
Under the headline "Russian Mistrust," Frankfurter Rundschau 
(9/29) editorialized:  "The group of six might attend the 
upcoming meeting with the Iranian negotiators more united than 
ever before....  The Russian confidence in the Tehran leadership 
seems to have been seriously undermined....  Information the 
U.S. recently provided is important....  This impressed 
Medvedev.   By the way, China has also been briefed 
extensively.  State leader Jintao still controls his facial 
play...  The Russian position will be: negotiate as long as 
possible, including the threat of sanctions." 
 
BERLIN 00001205  002 OF 004 
 
 
 
¶3.   (Afghanistan)   Elections, ISAF 
 
Sddeutsche (9/29) headlined: "NATO stands by Karzai" and said 
in its intro: "Describing Karzai's election victory as dubious 
is an understatement.....  His challenger Abdullah Abdullah, who 
also stands accused of minor election frauds, called the 
election results a bad joke, noting that the president 
systematically falsified the elections." 
 
Under the headline "The time is short," Frankfurter Allgemeine 
(9/29) analyzed: "The calls of the ISAF commander Mc Chrystal 
to increase the number of U.S. troops in Afghanistan in 
connection with a warning of a likely defeat has given a new 
urgency to the debate about the allies' strategy and tactics 
in this conflict.   President Obama's statement that the 
American nation is tired of this war has the impact of a long- 
expected shock....  For Europeans, it is now clear that Obama 
will not walk into the election campaign at the domestic front 
with an open flank in Afghanistan." 
 
¶4.   (Germany)   Aftermath of Bundestag Elections 
 
All papers carried lengthy election analyses and reports on 
the future strategies of the parties.  The papers again 
focused on what the outcome of the election means for domestic 
policies and only one paper, Handelsblatt (9/29), dealt with 
the effects the election may have on foreign policy.  The 
daily wrote under the headline: "FDP Turns Disarmament into a 
Crucial Issue," "FDP leader Westerwelle remained silent about 
future foreign policy...but he is becoming concrete on 
disarmament policy and by emphasizing this choice, he is 
stressing which profile the FDP wants to pursue in foreign 
policy.  Westerwelle defined the complete withdrawal of the 
last U.S. nuclear weapons from Germany as a short-term goal of 
the new coalition government.  Westerwelle said that, 
following President Obama's disarmament initiative, it would 
only be consistent if Germany made its contribution to this 
initiative.  During a news conference in Berlin a Ukrainian 
journalist asked Westerwelle whether he would pursue a new 
policy towards Russia, Westerwelle said that he would prefer 
to postpone the answer to this question for another news 
conference.  'But this question is understandable,' the daily 
wrote, because "the FDP is the only party that is supporting 
Ukraine's accession to the EU." 
 
ARD-TV's Tagesthemen (9/28) commented: "Angela Merkel said: 'I 
want to be the chancellor of all Germans.'  This was the first 
pillar which she rammed into the ground against the FDP.  And 
North Rhine-Westphalia's Minister President Rttgers promised 
on TV that the CDU/CSU/FDP coalition would not impose any 
radical measures on Germans.  This statement was obvious, for 
he wants to remain minister president in NRW in May, 2010. 
But the FDP has many reasons not to be too radical either. 
The FDP, too, does not want to risk losing its majority in the 
Bundesrat because of a defeat in the upcoming NRW state 
parliament elections." 
 
Norddeutscher Rundfunk radio (9/28) broadcast the following 
commentary: "The majorities are clear: A coalition of the 
CDU/CSU and the FDP will dominate the Bundestag and is very 
likely to have a majority in the second chamber, the 
Bundesrat--at least until the state parliament elections in 
NRW.  This is also the reason that we do not have to be afraid 
of radical change of course, but can expect a policy based on 
circumspection.  Now the chancellor must demonstrate that she 
is able to lead.  This is not, such as the grand coalition, a 
coalition at eye level, but a coalition among unequal 
partners.  This means an end to the presidential 
 
BERLIN 00001205  003 OF 004 
 
 
chancellorship.  Her mandate now will be to sharpen the 
profile of the CDU/CSU and to show her true colors." 
 
Under the headline: "Merkel's Power," Sueddeutsche Zeitung 
(9/29) opined: "Merkel will patch up a coalition government 
which, in her opinion, must be based on three pillars: First, 
the stability of her power; second, the stability of her 
power, and third, the stability of her power.  The better she 
is in achieving this, the freer she will feel also with 
respect to fulfilling the mandate of the voters, i.e. to 
successfully govern....  Following these elections, Merkel is 
stronger than is evident in the mere numbers.  With Guido 
Westerwelle, Merkel has a partner who will be very careful not 
to forfeit the bit of power he will now have.  But there is 
one thing the chancellor is lacking: an opposition that 
corresponds to the most important requirement of a democracy, 
namely to be able at any time to replace the government.  This 
deficit alone stresses the full dimension of Merkel's 
victory." 
 
In the view of Frankfurter Allgemeine (9/29), "Angela Merkel 
did not inadvertently say that she wanted to be the chancellor 
of all Germans, and on Monday, she said that the interests of 
labor and capital would again be well balanced under her 
leadership.  Obviously, she does not want to allow the 
opposition to put her in a 'neo-liberal' corner. 
Nevertheless, she promised that there will be 'more of the 
CDU/CSU' in the new coalition than there was in the old one. 
More of the CDU/CSU?  The curtain has now been raised but many 
questions still remain open." 
 
Frankfurter Rundschau (9/29) judged: "It is by no means 
guaranteed that the new trio of a battered CDU with a hyper- 
nervous CSU and an FDP that is brimming with self-confidence 
will really turn out to be stable in everyday political 
business. With clear words Chancellor Merkel rejected any 
corrections of previous CDU/SPD decisions and assured that 
fundamental FDP demands for social policies would not be 
implemented with her at the helm, because her popularity is 
based on her balanced policy as chancellor." 
 
According to Financial Times Deutschland (9/29), "the moment 
of truth will come for Chancellor Merkel in the coalition 
talks with the FDP.  Then Merkel will have to stand for the 
political projects that have priority for the CDU/CSU.  It may 
sound paradoxical, but Merkel can and should now demonstrate 
her leadership strength the same she did before the election: 
by understatement.  Merkel will certainly do the country and 
trade and industry a favor if she continues her policy of a 
quiet hand for the time being and not allow the FDP and the 
CSU to tell her what she has to do.  The difference to the 
time before the election is that Merkel needs a lot of 
strength now to reject radical reforms." 
 
Handelsblatt ((/29) wondered: "Will Merkel now put aside her 
cotton buds and put on her boxing gloves and fight as a 
resolute reformer for a clear economic policy course?  Those 
who closely listen to the chancellor have their doubts.  Even 
after the closure of all polling stations, all her speeches 
indicate the fearful promise that the social balance will be 
maintained.  Merkel continues to distribute tranquilizers. 
Has the notion left the chancellor that the state referees the 
market without seeking to control it now that she can no 
longer hide behind the SPD?  Election victory or no, Merkel 
the suspicious, continues to remain cautious." 
 
Regional daily Rhein-Neckar-Zeitung of Heidelberg (9/29) 
opined: "Angela Merkel is now required to act as an animal 
trainer.  She must keep the destructive potential of the CSU 
 
BERLIN 00001205  004 OF 004 
 
 
at a low level, rein in the ambitious proposals of the FDP and 
debunk the notion that she is only chancellor by the grace of 
Guido.  These will be exciting times, but they may result in 
fresh and better policies in the coming years after the leaden 
times of the grand coalition.  If someone can turn this chance 
for success into reality, then it is Angela Merkel." 
 
 MURPHY