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O 141527Z SEP 09
FM AMEMBASSY BERLIN
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 5192
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE IMMEDIATE
RUCNFRG/FRG COLLECTIVE IMMEDIATE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 BERLIN 001136 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: GM PGOV
SUBJECT: GERMAN ELECTIONS: MERKEL-STEINMEIER TV DEBATE 
SHOWS MORE DUET THAN DUEL 
 
¶1.   (SBU)  Summary:  The September 13 90-minute television 
debate between Chancellor and Christian Democratic Union 
(CDU) party chief Angela Merkel and Vice Chancellor and 
Social Democratic Party (SPD) chancellor candidate 
Frank-Walter Steinmeier will probably have little lasting 
effect on the electorate and shows why neither candidate has 
been able to generate public enthusiasm.  While both said 
they want to end the CDU/Christian Social Union (CSU)-SPD 
Grand Coalition, they also praised its achievements and 
refrained from personal attacks.  This left the press to 
argue that the discussion seemed, in the words of Stern 
magazine, "more like an appointment for a grand coalition" 
than a contest between political opponents. Telephone polls 
taken after the debate indicate  that Steinmeier did better 
than expected (not a tall order in light of his lackluster 
campaigning to date) but Merkel remains the public's clear 
preference as chancellor.  Substantively, the two differed 
mostly on taxes, nuclear energy, and the minimum wage.  They 
showed unity on foreign policy, both in terms of the need for 
more international regulation of financial markets and 
greater efforts to produce enough stability in Afghanistan to 
allow for an eventual withdrawal of troops.  End Summary. 
 
¶2.  (SBU)  SPD chancellor candidate and Foreign Minister 
Steinmeier had the most riding on last night's debate due to 
his challenger status and his party's distant second in all 
recent opinion polls. Steinmeier rose to the occasion, giving 
a relatively feisty performance that left most commentators 
describing him as the narrow victor. Telephone polls taken 
after the debate show that he did score points with undecided 
voters, who according to an ARD-sponsored poll found him more 
convincing by a 45-37 percent plurality.  A Politbarometer 
telephone poll also indicates that he was able to convince 
SPD voters that he was the right choice as chancellor, and he 
may have helped to shore up SPD support after the party lost 
voters to both the Greens and Left Party in recent state 
elections.  His performance may also serve to mobilize SPD 
supporters to vote on election day.  Steinmeier emphasized 
the need for a Social Democratic presence in the government, 
promoting social and economic justice. He argued that a 
CDU/CSU coalition with the pro-market Free Democratic Party 
(FDP) would primarily serve the interests of big business and 
the wealthy.  While he praised the Grand Coalition, 
Steinmeier argued that the CDU/CSU has blocked SPD proposals 
for a national minimum wage and limits on executive salaries. 
 Despite his claim to be seeking the chancellorship, he 
seemed to be arguing more for continuation of the Grand 
Coalition and could not directly say how he would put 
together a government in which he would be chancellor. 
 
¶3.  (SBU)  Merkel began the debate by praising the grand 
coalition but insisted that a CDU/CSU-FDP coalition would be 
more likely to reduce taxes and produce the economic growth 
needed to get Germany out of its current recession. Telephone 
polls show that Merkel continues to be viewed as the more 
competent of the two by a 51-31 majority but she also did 
less well than expected.  Merkel talked convincingly about 
her accomplishments, but as a Sueddeutsche Zeitung 
commentator noted on Monday, made no gestures to the 
conservative, southern Catholic voters who are the core of 
the CDU/CSU's electoral support.  She did look 
chancellor-like, however, and as the Politbarometer poll 
shows, those who watched the debate still prefer her as 
chancellor by a 55-38 percent majority, down somewhat from 
the 64-29 percent majority of those polled before the debate. 
 
¶4.  (SBU)  Most of the discussion was focused on economic 
policy, and perhaps the most interesting story of the night 
was the non-debate over Afghanistan.  Despite the controversy 
during the last two weeks concerning the bombing in Kunduz, 
Afghanistan was discussed only briefly.  Steinmeier corrected 
erroneous press reports this weekend claiming that a Ministry 
of Foreign Affairs plan would call for withdrawal by 2013; he 
insisted his goal was to create the conditions for withdrawal 
but he did not name a date. Merkel agreed with her Foreign 
Minister. None of the moderators raised the Afghan report 
that claimed 30 civilians had been killed in the bombing, and 
the lack of controversy suggests the public is willing to 
give the government the benefit of the doubt when German 
forces are under threat, particularly when local Afghan 
officials have defended German actions. 
 
¶5. (SBU) COMMENT: Last night's debate, with an estimated 
audience of 14.2 million viewers (down from the 21 million 
Germans who watched Merkel and Schroeder in 2005), may help 
Steinmeier shore up and mobilize his Social Democratic base 
but is unlikely to have any real impact on the election.  The 
race remains too close to call, with the CDU/CSU and FDP 
within reach of a parliamentary majority but with no one sure 
that, as in 2002 and 2005, a black-yellow coalition may once 
again fall short.  Merkel's defense of the Grand Coalition 
 
BERLIN 00001136  002 OF 002 
 
 
and her rather tepid call for a change in government suggests 
that she is keeping her options open, and she did little last 
night to fire up her base.  The election may rest in the 
hands of the minor parties and their level of support. Recent 
opinion polls indicate a plurality of the public wants a 
change in coalitions, but Merkel and Steinmeier seem 
unwilling or unable to give a convincing explanation of why 
such change is necessary.  END COMMENT. 
 
Murphy 
Murphy