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O 141049Z SEP 09
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TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 5184
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE IMMEDIATE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 BERLIN 001133 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: GM PGOV
SUBJECT: WHAT HAPPENS AFTER THE GERMAN ELECTIONS? 
 
¶1.  (SBU)  Summary:  Germany could see a change in government 
after the September 27 Bundestag election, and even if the 
result is another Grand Coalition of Chancellor Merkel's 
Christian Democratic Union and sister Christian Social Union 
(CDU/CSU) party with Foreign Minister Steinmeier's Social 
Democratic Party (SPD), there could be lengthy coalition 
negotiations and turnover at the ministerial and senior 
administrative level.  Embassy Berlin offers a review of the 
rules that govern the process and the timeline that is likely 
to develop depending on the election results.  Coalition 
negotiations could drag on for several months but could also 
go much more quickly in the event of a CDU/CSU-Free 
Democratic Party (FDP) parliamentary majority.  In Germany, 
there is always a sitting government, and Merkel and her 
current cabinet will remain in office until she is either 
re-elected or, although highly unlikely, she is replaced by 
the parliament's election of a new chancellor.  End Summary. 
 
---------------- 
Election Process 
---------------- 
 
¶2.  (U) Every four years, the German electorate chooses a new 
parliament of approximately 598 members.  Voters have a first 
choice for a direct mandate in which they select the member 
of parliament for their constituency by a simple plurality 
(one more than any other candidate).  They have a second vote 
for a state party list (usually 299 members of the parliament 
are chosen by these party lists but the number car vary due 
to a quirk in the electoral system).  A party must win five 
percent of the national vote or three direct mandates 
(constituencies) to be represented in the Bundestag, although 
any candidate winning a direct mandate takes his or her seat 
in parliament.  The second vote determines the overall 
percentage of seats a party gets. 
 
---------------------- 
Coalition Negotiations 
---------------------- 
 
¶3.  (U)  Parties normally make their coalition preferences 
known, and if there is a clear parliamentary majority (which 
was the case after every election except for 1949 and 2005), 
those parties will announced their intention, usually on 
election night, to begin negotiations to form a coalition. 
If the CDU/CSU and FDP win a parliamentary majority on 
September 27, we can expect an announcement that night that 
they will begin negotiations, which could come to a 
relatively rapid conclusion.  In 1998, for example, the SPD 
and Greens concluded negotiations and elected Gerhard 
Schroeder chancellor in exactly one month. 
 
¶4.  (U) In any case, the parliament must meet no later than 
30 days after the Bundestag election.  Its first duty is to 
elect a Bundestag president and vice presidents, with the 
president coming from the largest parliamentary group and the 
vice presidents from the other parliamentary groups (also 
known as caucuses).  When coalition negotiations are 
completed, the parties will inform the federal president of 
their intention to elect a chancellor, and the president will 
propose his or her name to the new Bundestag.  Usually the 
vote will take place shortly thereafter.  If coalition 
negotiations are ongoing or if it is not yet clear what kind 
of coalition will be formed, as was the case in 2005, the 
existing government (chancellor and ministers) remains in 
office in a caretaker status until coalition negotiations 
result in an agreement to elect a chancellor and form a new 
government.  The process can last months; in 2005 the 
Bundestag election took place on September 18 and Merkel was 
not elected chancellor until November 22. 
 
------------------------ 
Election of a Chancellor 
------------------------ 
 
¶5.  (U) The chancellor must receive an absolute majority of 
the members of parliament to be elected in the first round of 
voting; this is the process that has been used in every 
chancellor election since 1949.  If the nominee fails to win 
an absolute majority, then the Bundestag has two weeks to try 
again, as many times as it chooses and for any nominee it 
proposes.  After the two week period is over, another vote 
would take place without delay.  A candidate winning an 
absolute majority must be appointed by the federal president; 
otherwise the president has the choice of naming the 
candidate with a plurality of the votes chancellor or 
dissolving the Bundestag, which would trigger new elections 
within 60 days.  This has never occurred. 
 
¶6.  (U) The president swears in the newly elected chancellor, 
who then nominates a list of ministers who are officially 
appointed by the president.  In recent years, a coalition 
agreement usually stipulates which ministries go to which 
 
BERLIN 00001133  002 OF 002 
 
 
parties, and each party leadership chooses its ministers. 
This process limits the ability of the chancellor to name the 
ministers of his or her choosing.  Since the Schroeder 
government of 1998, coalition agreements have been made 
public and are placed on the government's website despite 
their lack of formal legal status. 
 
------------------------ 
Appointment of Ministers 
------------------------ 
 
¶7.  (U)  After the chancellor and ministers are sworn in, 
there is also a transition of senior administrative 
officials.  Each ministry has one or two parliamentary state 
secretaries (called ministers of state in the Chancellery and 
Ministry of Foreign Affairs) who are members of parliament 
and who help the minister or chancellor with relations to 
parliament or who perform other selected duties, and one to 
there "beamtete" (career civil service) secretaries of state 
who oversee the internal administration of the ministry.  The 
head of the Chancellery can either be a member of the 
cabinet, as is the case with Merkel's Chancellery Chief 
Thomas de Maiziere, who serves as a Minister without 
Portfolio, or is a civil servant, as was the case when 
Steinmeier headed Gerhard Schroeder's Chancellery.  The 
"beamtete" secretaries of state and division chiefs are 
considered "political bureaucrats" who are usually career 
civil servants (but often with clear party affiliation) who 
can be removed from their position at any time and without 
cause.  There senior civil servants are reshuffled over a 
several-month period, with new officials often coming from 
state ministries held by the party of the federal minister or 
from the staffs of the parliamentary caucuses.  Some senior 
officials stay on, but particularly when a ministry changes 
party hands there is a thorough changeover that takes place 
over several months. 
 
------- 
COMMENT 
------- 
 
 
¶8.  (SBU)  The framers of the German Basic Law have 
successfully assured that Germany always has a sitting 
government.  Unless there is a clear parliamentary majority 
for the CDU/CSU-FDP coalition ("black-yellow"), however, 
coalition negotiations are likely to be long and difficult 
this year and could extend past the 20th anniversary 
celebrations of the fall of the Berlin Wall on November 9. 
Protracted negotiations should be expected between the 
CDU/CSU and SPD for another Grand Coalition.  In recent 
years, the parties have also insisted on a coalition 
agreement that puts restrictions on what a chancellor can do 
in important policy areas and that stipulates specifically 
the composition and party make-up of the cabinet.  In 2005, 
for example, the SPD ensured that Merkel could not amend the 
previous government's program to phase out nuclear energy 
without Social Democratic Party approval, and when then Labor 
Minister and Vice-Chancellor Muentefering resigned his office 
in 2007, it was the SPD and not Merkel who decided both his 
replacement as minister and the elevation of Steinmeier to 
the position as Vice-Chancellor.  End Comment. 
 
Murphy. 
 
Murphy