VZCZCXRO5946
PP RUEHAG RUEHAST RUEHBI RUEHCI RUEHDBU RUEHDF RUEHIK RUEHLH RUEHLN
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DE RUEHAH #1177/01 2581300
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 151300Z SEP 09
FM AMEMBASSY ASHGABAT
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 3472
INFO RUCPDOC/DEPT OF COMMERCE WASHDC PRIORITY
RUEATRS/DEPT OF TREASURY WASHDC PRIORITY
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RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK 1147
RHMCSUU/CDR USCENTCOM MACDILL AFB FL
RUEHVEN/USMISSION USOSCE 3904
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
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RUEKJCS/JOINT STAFF WASHDC

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 ASHGABAT 001177 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR SCA/CEN; EEB; NEA/IR 
ENERGY FOR EKIMOFF/BURPOE/COHEN 
COMMERCE FOR EHOUSE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: EPET PGOV EINV IR TU TX
SUBJECT: IRAN PLANS TO TRANSIT 35 BCM OF TURKMEN GAS TO TURKEY 
 
REF: ASHGABAT 886 
 
¶1.  (U) Sensitive but unclassified.  Not for public Internet. 
 
¶2.  (SBU) SUMMARY: Iranian media reported on September 12 that 
Ankara and Tehran agreed to transport Turkmen gas to Turkey.  The 
media reports quoted an official of the National Iranian Oil Company 
as saying that the volume of Turkmen gas transiting Iran would reach 
35 bcm per year.  To date, none of the reports has mentioned when 
such transit operations would begin.  Neither the Turkmen Government 
nor local media have commented on the proposed, increased volumes so 
far.  END SUMMARY. 
 
¶3.  (SBU) In July, Turkmenistan and Iran signed an agreement to 
increase the supplies of Turkmen gas to Iran from eight billion 
cubic meters (bcm) of gas per year to 14 bcm and stated that volumes 
could reach 20 bcm per year in the future.  At the same time, the 
Turkmen Government has never mentioned the possibility of increasing 
gas shipments to Iran to 35 bcm per year.  Turkmenistan can 
technically increase supplies to Iran up to 14 bcm per year in the 
short-term without jeopardizing its existing export obligations. 
However, supplying 35 bcm could only be realized when the South 
Yoloten gas field comes on line some time in the more distant 
future. 
 
¶4.  (SBU) Currently, the Korpeje - Kurdkui gas pipeline connects 
Turkmen western gas deposits to the Iranian gas transportation 
network.  With a diameter of 40 inches, the pipeline is capable of 
transporting about 12.5 - 13 bcm of gas annually.  This pipeline's 
full capacity has never been used to its full extent.  The maximum 
shipments have never exceeded 8 bcm.  Another transit option is the 
Dowletabat - Sarakhs - Khangiran pipeline, planned for completion 
and operation by the end of 2009.  Its capacity will also only allow 
for the transit of 12.5-13 bcm of gas per year (reftel).  As a 
result, if both the Korpeje-Kurdkui and Dowletabat-Sarakhs-Khangirin 
were running at full capacity, they would only provide for the 
transit of 25-26 bcm, falling 9-10 bcm short of the amount reported 
in Iran. 
 
¶5.  (SBU) In addition to insufficient pipeline capacity, another 
challenge is actually getting the 35 bcm of Turkmen gas from the 
Turkmenistan-Iran border to Iran's border with Turkey.  The existing 
capacity of pipelines connecting Iran's northeastern and western 
regions is not capable of carrying more than 10 bcm of gas per year. 
 Iran could employ a gas swap --consuming 10 bcm of Turkmen gas in 
its northeastern provinces and providing the same volume of Iranian 
gas at the Turkish border, but there would still be a need for 
additional capacity to transport the remaining 15 bcm.  Iran has 
long-term plans to increase the capacity of its northeast-west gas 
transportation system, but post has no information regarding how 
many more bcm of gas the upgrade could handle. 
 
¶6.  (SBU) Getting Turkmen gas across the Iran-Turkey border would 
also be a problem, as the capacity of the existing Tabriz-Erzurum 
pipeline is not enough to handle 35 bcm of gas per year.  As a 
result, the two countries may need to construct another gas pipeline 
in order to transport 35 bcm of gas per year.  Last but not least, 
in 2008 Turkey consumed 36 bcm of gas, and is unlikely to require an 
additional 35 bcm of gas given current demands.  Moreover, exporting 
excess gas volumes further west would require additional pipeline 
capacity, which means more investment and more time. 
 
¶7.  (SBU) COMMENT:  Turkmenistan is currently looking for new gas 
customers in addition to Russia, but has not backed off its mantra 
of requiring all customers to buy their gas at the Turkmen border. 
As a result, any new Turkmen gas customers, including Iran, would 
need to invest in pipeline transportation systems that are not only 
costly, but would take years to complete.  As a result, the recent 
announcement by Iran to transport large volumes of Turkmen gas to 
 
ASHGABAT 00001177  002 OF 002 
 
 
Turkey seems only to be in the idea stage for now.  END COMMENT. 
 
CURRAN