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UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 ASHGABAT 001110 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR SCA/CEN; EEB; NEA/IR 
ENERGY FOR EKIMOFF/BURPOE/COHEN 
COMMERCE FOR EHOUSE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: EPET PGOV EINV ECON TX
SUBJECT: TURKMEN GAS NOT TO REACH BULGARIA SOON 
 
REF: ASHGABAT 886 
 
¶1.  (U) Sensitive but unclassified.  Not for public Internet. 
 
¶2.  (SBU) SUMMARY: During an August 27 meeting between Bulgarian 
President Dmitry Pyrvanov and Turkmen President Gurbanguly 
Berdimuhamedov, the Pyrvanov announced that Bulgaria is ready to 
import more than 2 bcm of Turkmen gas, and Berdimuhamedov pledged 
that Turkmenistan is ready to supply the proposed volumes.  Neither 
president mentioned how potential gas supplies from Turkmenistan 
would get to Bulgaria, given there is no current, plausible route. 
In addition, neither president signed any official agreement to 
reinforce their statements.  END SUMMARY. 
 
¶3.  (SBU) The Bulgarian and Turkmen heads of state first raised the 
idea during Pyrvanov's visit to Ashgabat in December 2008.  They 
even signed a memorandum of understanding on cooperation in energy, 
which has not been published in Turkmenistan.  Pyrvanov also 
mentioned that the two countries would look into the possibility of 
using existing routes, at least until such time as Nabucco would be 
built. 
 
¶4.  (SBU) Providing two bcm per year is not a problem for the 
Turkmen gas industry, but finding viable supply routes is an issue. 
Technically, there are two options to transport Turkmen gas to 
Bulgaria.  One of them is through Russia.  The Russian route would 
take Turkmen gas through pipelines crossing the territories of 
Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Russia, Ukraine, Moldova, and Romania to 
reach Bulgaria.  But, realistically, this route is not viable both 
due to political and economic factors.  The Russian Government and 
Gazprom are unlikely to agree to transport Turkmen gas to any 
European country, as such an arrangement would supplant Russia's 
roles as gas supplier to Europe and main customer for Turkmen gas. 
Even if the Russians agreed to take up the transit role in lieu of 
supplier, the transportation costs would be so high that the price 
of Turkmen gas would not be competitive by the time it reached 
Bulgaria. 
 
¶5.  (SBU) The second option is through Iran.  Via this option, 
Turkmen gas would cross a significantly shorter distance than the 
Russian option and only three countries: Iran, Turkey, and Greece. 
The existing pipelines: Korpeje - Kurdkuyi (NOTE: Dowletabat - 
Khangiran will come on stream in December.  (reftel) END NOTE), 
Tabriz - Erzurum, and the Turkey - Greece Interconnector linking the 
Turkmen, Iranian, Turkish, and Greek gas networks are sufficient to 
transport two bcm of Turkmen gas to the Greek city of Komotini. 
From Komotini, Bulgaria plans to build a 168-kilometer pipeline to 
the Bulgarian city of Stara Zagora.  Gas swap deals could also be 
arranged with Iran to improve the economic feasibility of such 
supplies and solve some technical difficulties.  But the Turkey - 
Greece Interconnector is dedicated to gas from the Azeri Shahdeniz 
field, and Turkmen gas would only get into that pipeline if there 
were insufficient supplies of Azeri gas.  There is another pipeline 
connecting Bulgaria and Turkey, but it is used to transport Russian 
gas from Bulgaria to Turkey and will not be reversed to pump Turkmen 
gas the opposite direction. 
 
¶6.  (SBU) COMMENT:  Turkmen gas is unlikely to reach Bulgaria any 
time soon.  Getting Turkmen gas to Bulgaria could only happen 
if/when Nabucco comes on line.  At present, the statements of the 
two presidents seem to be nothing more than declarations of intent. 
For Bulgaria, such a declaration is another argument in favor of 
Nabucco, from which Bulgaria would definitely benefit.  For 
Turkmenistan, such declarations have become a part of its pipeline 
diversification policy.  In the end, however, Turkmenistan's 
expressed willingness to provide gas to customers besides Russia is 
most likely intended to strengthen Turkmenistan's bargaining 
position in negotiations with the Russians on resuming gas 
shipments.  END COMMENT. 
 
ASHGABAT 00001110  002 OF 002 
 
 
 
CURRAN