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RR RUEHBZ RUEHDU RUEHGI RUEHJO RUEHMA RUEHMR RUEHPA RUEHRN RUEHTRO
DE RUEHAN #0682/01 2680811
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 250811Z SEP 09
FM AMEMBASSY ANTANANARIVO
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 2879
INFO RUEHZO/AFRICAN UNION COLLECTIVE
RHMFISS/CDR USAFRICOM STUTTGART GE
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RUCPDOC/DEPT OF COMMERCE WASHDC
RUEATRS/DEPT OF TREASURY WASHDC

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 ANTANANARIVO 000682 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR AF/E - MBEYZEROV 
DOC FOR BERKUL 
TREASURY FOR FBOYE 
PARIS FOR WBAIN 
LONDON FOR PLORD 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL ECON MA
SUBJECT: ANTANANARIVO POL/ECON WEEKLY UPDATE (09/25/2009) 
 
REF: A) ANTANANARIVO 676 
 
¶1. (U) SUMMARY: This is U.S. Embassy Antananarivo's Weekly Update 
for September 21 to 25, an unclassified review of major political, 
economic, and commercial events and information from the U.S. 
Mission to Madagascar and the Comoros. 
 
POLITICAL (paras 2-7) 
- Rajoelina at the UN General Assembly 
- Trial of Legalist leaders 
- Political demonstrations 
- Civil society enters the mediation fray 
- Pierrot: Birth of a new party, death of an old one? 
- Tana Mission offsite 
 
ECONOMIC AND COMMERCIAL (paras 8-11) 
- Madagascar-Thailand cooperation 
- Review of mining contracts, adoption of new petroleum code 
- Shipwreck leads to possible ecological disaster 
- Visit to Self-Help Projects 
 
END SUMMARY 
 
-------- 
POLITICS 
-------- 
 
¶2. (SBU) RAJOELINA AT THE GENERAL ASSEMBLY: Antananarivo has been 
calm this week, with all eyes on New York as HAT President Andry 
"TGV" RAJOELINA prepared for a speech to UNGA.  He is currently 
slated to speak in the afternoon on September 25, according to the 
UN website, although his presidency remains unrecognized by the 
international community - and the UN itself.  Rajoelina's attendance 
at UNGA, and particularly his invitation to a Wednesday meeting on 
climate change, has sparked intense speculation about "UN 
recognition" of Madagascar's ruling HAT.  Internet media, however, 
has also noted that Rajoelina's request to meet with the Secretary 
General was declined, and that he was left out of a White House 
event for African leaders (see ref A). 
 
¶3. (SBU) TRIAL OF LEGALIST LEADERS: Pro-Ravalomanana leaders 
Manandafy RAKOTONIRINA and Ihanta RANDRIAMANDRATO received suspended 
sentences on September 22 (of two years, and of six months, 
respectively) for breach of public and state security, inciting 
civil war, misuse of title, unauthorized organization of public 
gatherings, and destruction of public property.  They were released 
in August, following the Maputo I accords, and had remained out on 
bail since. Former Senator Eliane NAIKA, arrested on September 12 
for alleged involvement in recent violence, was also released on 
bail on the 22nd.  A dual French/Malagasy citizen, she has since 
left the country for Europe, after stating publicly that she had 
been "brutalized but not raped."  Ms. Randriamandrato's husband, 
Ralitera ANDRIANANDRAINA, remains the only high-profile prisoner of 
concern still being held; his case has been pushed back several 
times, and he is currently scheduled for a hearing on September 30. 
 
¶4. (SBU) POLITICAL DEMONSTRATIONS MUTED: Following the AU's 
announcement of an ICG-M meeting to take place in Antananarivo on 
October 6, former President Albert ZAFY'S movement suspended further 
demonstrations; demonstrations by Ravalomanana's movement continued 
on a small scale at the Magro facility north of city center.  The 
three movements have, however, planned a joint political rally for 
Saturday, September 26, in apparent contradiction of their previous 
announcement (see ref A). 
 
¶5. (SBU) CIVIL SOCIETY ENTERS THE MEDIATION FRAY: Numerous civil 
society organizations joined together on September 18 to propose 
that they, along with the armed forces, re-launch talks between the 
four movements with a focus on implementing the Maputo accords. 
Their stated goal is to reach a resolution before the ICG-M meeting 
on October 6.  Army Chief of Staff Andre NDRIARIJAONA has gone only 
as far as stating that he is not against a mediation role if 
required, but political leaders have given the idea a cooler 
reception.  This is but the latest in a series of civil society 
initiatives over the course of the crisis to insert themselves into 
the mediation effort.  All previous attempts have been stymied by 
the lack of a coherent position within civil society, and widespread 
perceptions of partisanship among their leaders. 
 
¶6. (U) BIRTH OF A NEW PARTY, DEATH OF AN OLD ONE? On September 19, 
Pierrot RAJAONARIVELO announced that he would create a new political 
party in two weeks, with a focus on reducing poverty and 
 
ANTANANARI 00000682  002 OF 002 
 
 
implementing "real [...] development, democracy, and good 
governance".  This announcement triggered dissent within the two 
main AREMA factions (AREMA is the party of former President Didier 
Ratsiraka, which split into three factions after Ravalomanana's 2002 
victory, one of which was headed by Rajaonarivelo).  Pro-Ratsiraka 
members of AREMA denounced the move, declaring that Rajaonarivelo 
had already left the party in 2007; Rajaonarivelo's supporters 
retort that he remains SG of AREMA, and that other "factions" had 
misled Ratsiraka, and public opinion, in an attempt to split the 
party after 2002.  Regardless of the fallout within AREMA, this move 
positions Rajoanarivelo for a presidential bid in any eventual 
elections. 
 
¶7. (U) OFFSITE: Mission staff held a strategic planning retreat 
September 21 and 22 at the Peace Corps training facility two hours 
East of Tana to discuss ideas for the coming year.  An action plan 
and democracy strategy paper will be developed based on the fruitful 
discussions to inform the Mission's engagement in Madagascar and the 
Comoros. 
 
----------------------- 
ECONOMIC AND COMMERCIAL 
----------------------- 
 
¶8. (U) MADAGASCAR-THAILAND COOPERATION: A Thai delegation arrived in 
Madagascar on September 16 and met with HAT Prime Minister Roindefo 
MONJA.   Mr. Sengmamy, head of the delegation, announced investments 
of USD 10 million over ten years.  The alleged investments will 
cover several sectors, such as agriculture, tourism, mining, 
micro-finance, and the rehabilitation of the main avenue of the 
capital.  This would be a significant expansion of Thailand's 
previous investments in Madagascar, which were primarily in the gem 
industry. 
 
¶9. (SBU) REVIEW OF MINING CONTRACTS, ADOPTION OF NEW PETROLEUM CODE: 
Recently-appointed HAT Minister of Mining and Hydrocarbons Mamy 
RATOVOMALALA announced plans to meet with the large mining companies 
to discuss their current contracts, and evaluate their influence on 
local quality of life.  In addition, the minister declared that a 
new petroleum code will be adopted before the end of this year. 
This new code will grant tax incentives to attract more foreign 
investments in the sector, and will address the legal framework of 
the bio-energy sector.  Generally, his remarks were received by 
investors with guarded relief, following blatant (but unsuccessful) 
extortion attempts against some of them by others in the HAT. 
 
¶10. (U) SHIPWRECK LEADS TO POSSIBLE ECOLOGICAL DISASTER: Tissue 
samples from four whales found dead on the south coast of Madagascar 
were taken for analysis to a French laboratory to explore a possible 
link to the recent sinking of the Turkish ship "Gulser Ana" off the 
southern tip of Madagascar.  Pending the results, the Ministries of 
Fishing and Transportation have taken preventive measures, and 
issued a ban on fishing in the southern region of the country.  As 
fishing represents the main source of income for one-third of the 
region's population, this prohibition has exacerbated local food 
insecurity. The World Food Program has pledged USD 250,000 in 
assistance to address this need, but further assistance will likely 
be required. 
 
¶11. (U) SOME SELF-HELP PROJECTS CONTINUE: Special Self-Help 
Coordinator visited six project sites in three northern regions of 
Madagascar last week, completing final evaluations on four projects 
involving clean water, solar energy, latrines, and equipment for a 
health clinic.  One of the fully-funded projects from this year is 
in the process of building a latrine, shower, and a well for a 
kindergarten class.  Progress on a second project from this year, 
which provided for the construction of a well to provide water to a 
school, has halted due to the suspension of the SSH program in 
Madagascar.  The amount of funding disbursed for five of the 
projects totals USD 16,000. 
 
MARQUARDT