VZCZCXRO8889
RR RUEHBZ RUEHDU RUEHGI RUEHJO RUEHMA RUEHMR RUEHPA RUEHRN RUEHTRO
DE RUEHAN #0669/01 2610850
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 180850Z SEP 09
FM AMEMBASSY ANTANANARIVO
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 2862
INFO RUEHZO/AFRICAN UNION COLLECTIVE
RHMFISS/CDR USAFRICOM STUTTGART GE
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RUCPDOC/DEPT OF COMMERCE WASHDC
RUEATRS/DEPT OF TREASURY WASHDC

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 ANTANANARIVO 000669 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR AF/E - MBEYZEROV 
DOC FOR BERKUL 
TREASURY FOR FBOYE 
PARIS FOR WBAIN 
LONDON FOR PLORD 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL ECON MA
SUBJECT: ANTANANARIVO POL/ECON WEEKLY UPDATE 
 
REF: A) Antananarivo 662 
B) Antananarivo 659 
C) Antananarivo 657 
D) Antananarivo 654 
E) Antananarivo 653 
F) Antananarivo 646 
G) Antananarivo 634 
H) Antananarivo 667 
 
¶1. (U) SUMMARY: This is U.S. Embassy Antananarivo's Weekly Update 
for September 7 to 18, an unclassified review of major political, 
economic, and commercial events and information from the U.S. 
Mission to Madagascar and the Comoros. END SUMMARY. 
 
POLITICS 
-------- 
¶2. (SBU) POLITICAL UPDATE: Opposition leaders have called for 
widespread demonstrations on September 19, in advance of their 
September 20 deadline for a return to negotiations.  Possibly 
signaling a lack of concern, HAT President Andry Rajoelina plans to 
travel to New York on the 19th for the UN General Assembly (ref C), 
leaving Prime Minister Monja Roindefo to deal with events in his 
absence.  With the opposition increasingly united against Rajoelina 
(ref B), this weekend's demonstrations could be an indicator of the 
opposition's ability to advance its agenda, as well as the coup 
regime's ability to maintain control (ref A) in the face of rising 
popular discontent and widespread international condemnation. 
 
¶3. (SBU) RECENT DEMONSTRATIONS: Following the September 8 nomination 
of the new HAT government "of national unity" (an erroneous title, 
see ref G), supporters of the three other movements restarted street 
demonstrations on September 10 and 11.  Attempts to gather on 
"Democracy Square" in central Tana were met with rapid intervention 
and teargas from local security forces.  The demonstrations have 
resulted in several injuries, including three European bystanders. 
The HAT used the incidents as a pretext to postpone negotiations, 
after originally accepting to meet on September 13, and has created 
a crisis management team to address the recent "trouble-making and 
breach to public order." 
 
¶4. (SBU) NEW POLITICALLY-MOTIVATED ARRESTS: In addition to the 
arrests of a few "looters" during recent demonstrations, the HAT has 
arrested two new high-profile political figures.  Former TIM Senator 
Eliane NAIKA was reportedly violently arrested in a hotel on 
September 12, then put under house arrest.  TIM spokesperson, and 
former National Assembly Deputy, Raharinaivo ANDRIANANTOANDRO was 
brought back into custody for a "breach of public order, criminal 
conspiracy and destruction of property", as he was present during 
the unauthorized September 10 and 11 sit-in outside Democracy 
Square.  Others currently wanted are two pro-Ravalomanana Legalist 
leaders, Ambroise RAVONISON and Andrianalijaona NDREMANAMPY a.k.a. 
Satrobory, for organizing an unauthorized public demonstration and 
breach to public order.  Tabera RANDRIAMANATSOA, a federalist 
activist from Zafy's movement, and former TIM Deputy Yves Aim 
RAKOTOARISOA a.k.a. Meme, are also wanted for incitement to 
violence, in reference to their September 9 speeches at MAGRO. 
 
¶5. (U) IFTAR DINNER: In an effort to strengthen ties with the 
various Muslim communities of Madagascar, the Ambassador hosted an 
Iftar dinner on September 15 that was attended by around 65 guests. 
The guests included an IV program participant, who was eager to 
share his experiences from his recent trip to the U.S. on interfaith 
dialogue.  A number of Comorans resident in Madagascar also 
attended.  The Ambassador's speech regarding Islam's role in America 
and USG efforts to promote freedom of religion abroad was well 
received. 
 
¶6. (SBU) LIBYAN MILITARY ASSISTANCE: Following Madagascar's 
attendance at Libyan leader Muammar Qadhafi's recent celebration of 
his 40th year in power, media sources announced Libya's donation of 
four MI-8 helicopters and a cargo plane to the Malagasy military. 
In a recent cabinet meeting, the HAT reportedly has also decided to 
invite the Libyan military to Madagascar to support their Malagasy 
counterparts in "their fight against rural insecurity".  No further 
details have emerged to indicate that Tripoli was aware of this 
decision, or has any intention of responding. 
 
 
ECONOMIC AND COMMERCIAL 
----------------------- 
¶7. (SBU) TOTAL OIL INVESTMENT: The General Manager of the French 
company Total Exploration and Production Madagascar, Lionel Levha, 
 
ANTANANARI 00000669  002 OF 002 
 
 
told the Ambassador that Total's joint venture with U.S. company 
Madagascar Oil (MO) in northeastern Madagascar to mine oil sands was 
going well, with good cooperation from the government on 
administrative matters.  The company has not been extorted or 
pressured, and intends to maintain its low profile to avoid such 
harassment.  Total, the operator on the Bemolanga block, for which 
MO holds the license, plans to invest USD 70 million during the 
first phase of drilling, which began July 25, 2009.  They plan to 
drill around 150 shallow wells; Levha noted that the oil can be seen 
just lying on the surface.  If the initial testing is positive, a 
pilot project may begin in mid-2011.  The next phase would involve 
an investment of hundreds of millions of dollars, with production 
possibly beginning in another ten years.  Total has 28 expats in 
country, including two that have experience in oil sands mining in 
Alberta.  Levha was optimistic that the mining could be more 
productive here than in Canada or Venezuela because the project has 
an enormous area in which to work; unfortunately, the environmental 
impact in this sparsely populated, lightly-forested area will be 
equally large. 
 
¶8. (U) MINIMUM EXPORT PRICE OF VANILLA: On July 7, 2009, the 
Ministry of Trade fixed the minimum export price of vanilla at USD 
27 per kilogram.  At present, the market rate is USD 18/kg in the 
vanilla-intensive SAVA area (Sambava, Antalaha, Vohemar, and Andapa 
regions).  As vanilla export prices were liberalized in 1995, many 
business associations consider this minimum price as illegal, and 
unfair to free competition.  IMF Representative Pierre Van de 
Boogaerde has publicly expressed his concern for Madagascar's 
competitiveness as a result of the move. 
 
¶9. (SBU) PROTECTION OF ENVIRONMENT AND HARD WOODS: On September 15, 
the GOM created a task force to prevent the looting of hard woods 
(ebony and rosewood) in Masoala and Mananara parks.  The task force 
will be composed of the Ministry of Environment, the armed forces, 
the Ministry of the Interior, the Ministry of Decentralization, the 
Ministry of Justice, and the Ministry of Budget, under 
(unfortunately) the leadership of the Prime Minister's Office. 
Since the beginning of the 2009 political crisis, major 
environmental donors, including WWF, WCS, and CI, have warned the 
GOM about the looming environmental disaster in these areas, 
including in joint communiqus led and coordinated by the U.S. 
Mission. 
 
¶10. (U) THE 2009 SIIT: The 2009 International Fair of Innovation and 
Technology (SIIT) will take place at Futura Andranomena from 
September 16 to 20.  Despite the current political situation, the 46 
participating companies are hoping to re-launch Madagascar's IT 
market through this fair. 
 
¶11. (U) RICE PRICE: Since the beginning of September, the price of 
rice has increased in Antananarivo.  Media reports indicate that the 
increase averaged 5 to 10 percent, although variations across the 
country ranged from negative 6 percent to positive 7 percent 
depending on the region and the type of rice.  The availability of 
rice for the upcoming shortage period constitutes a major concern 
for the country, given that during the last three months, only 1,024 
tons of rice were imported compared to 24,711 tons in 2008 during 
the same period.  Reduced imports are, however, in part due to lower 
demand for imports resulting from the bumper domestic harvest of 
¶2009. 
 
¶12. (U) ENFIN, A SECOND MALAGASY BREWERY: Despite earlier 
administrative obstacles and rumored sabotage by its entrenched 
competitor, new beer producer NBM will soon receive definitive 
authorization from the Ministry of Water to use the Manjakatompo 
spring for its production, Minister of Water Nirhy Lanto 
Andriamahazo recently confirmed.  The Minister of Environment has 
already signed off on the land use, leaving only final authorization 
from the Ministry of Economy before Madagascar's second brewery is 
able to start production.  This will effectively end one of 
Madagascar's most enduring monopolies. 
 
MARQUARDT