VZCZCXYZ0000
RR RUEHWEB

DE RUEHIN #1068/01 2450837
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 020837Z SEP 09
FM AIT TAIPEI
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 2236
INFO RUEHBJ/AMEMBASSY BEIJING 9370
RUEHHK/AMCONSUL HONG KONG 0800

UNCLAS AIT TAIPEI 001068 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR INR/R/MR, EAP/TC, EAP/P, EAP/PD - THOMAS HAMM 
DEPARTMENT PASS AIT/WASHINGTON 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: OPRC KMDR KPAO TW
SUBJECT: MEDIA REACTION: JAPAN'S ELECTIONS 
 
Summary:  Taiwan's major Chinese-language dailies focused news 
coverage September 2 on the Dalai Lama's visit in Taiwan; on the 
Cabinet reshuffle slated to be announced on September 7; on the 
Taiwan government's plan to fight the H1N1 epidemic; and on the 
Taipei District Court's verdicts against family members of former 
President Chen Shui-bian for perjury.  In terms of editorials and 
commentaries, a column in the KMT-leaning "China Times" discussed 
the new Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) government in Tokyo and said 
neither Washington nor Beijing can tell right now which line the DPJ 
will take in terms of its future policy direction.  An op-ed in the 
pro-independence, English-language "Taipei Times," however, 
suggested that Taiwan work hard to "support Washington's 
'Japan-centric Asian Policy,'" or there will be huge change in 
Japan's own Asian policy if the United States shifts to a 
"China-centric policy."  End summary. 
 
A) "Japan's 'National Interests' in between China and the United 
States" 
 
The "International Lookout" column in the KMT-leaning "China Times" 
[circulation: 120,000] wrote (9/2): 
 
"... As of now, both Washington and Beijing maintain a wait-and-see 
attitude toward the [future] policy direction of Japan's new regime. 
 Washington is of course very cautious, but Beijing is close to 
being quiet and serene, because neither can easily tell which line 
the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) will eventually take in the 
future.  People tend to use the previous words and deeds of key 
members of the DPJ as a basis for their general and apparent 
observation [regarding the DPJ's future policy direction]. ...  But 
in reality, those [deeds and words] have nothing to do with Japan's 
future policy direction after the DPJ takes over the helm.  What the 
DPJ [leaders] are pondering are 'Japan's interests.' 
 
What are 'Japan's interests' then?  Japan's interests are the 
resources in the East China Sea and the Senkaku Islands; whatever 
the United States, Europe, India or even Australia can do to 
restrain or overcome China's growing strength is in Japan's 
interests; China's ability to expand its market to accept Japan's 
exports is in Japan's interests; and China's [decision] not to block 
Japan's adamant plan to join the UN Security Council as a permanent 
member is in Japan's interests. 
 
"As for the United States, Washington's continued reliance on Japan 
without increasing the latter's burdens will meet Japan's interests; 
also, it will be in Japan's interests if Washington can assist Japan 
diplomatically and treat it with reciprocity.  It will serve Japan's 
interests if the United States does not interfere with Japan's 
constitutional amendments, and it is in Japan's interests if 
Washington allows Tokyo to cut back on its expenses on the U.S. 
military deployments [in Japan].  Also, it will meet Japan's 
interests if the United States can respect Japan's nuclear 
principles." 
 
B) "The Balance between the US, Japan and Taiwan" 
 
Sebo Koh, a member of the Central Committee of the World United 
Formosans for Independence and the spokesman of World Taiwanese 
Congress, opined in the pro-independence, English-language "Taipei 
Times" [circulation: 30,000] (9/2): 
 
"Though what the Japanese prime minister-elect said before the 
election was alarming, my prediction is that nothing much will 
change in Japan's policy toward the US or Taiwan. ...  Japan has had 
no unified national strategy since the end of World War II. Its 
attitude and policies toward other Asian countries follow those of 
the US. Tokyo's policy toward Taiwan will only change if 
Washington's does. People say Japanese prime ministers after the war 
are experts in karaoke -- Americans write songs and they sing them. 
The danger is changes in US policy toward Asia in general and Taiwan 
in particular. Though there are only hints of a subconscious shift 
toward a China-centric Asian policy, even those hints are 
worrisome. 
 
"So far, the US continues to stress the central importance of Japan 
in Asia, but if there is any substance at all to hints of a 
"China-centric policy," there will be huge change in Japan's own 
Asian policy. Tokyo would have to set out on its own or become a 
junior ally of China.  The latter would be a very hard pill for 
Japanese to swallow.  More likely, Japan will become more 
nationalistic and militaristic. Going nuclear would be unavoidable 
if Japan wanted to maintain a balance of power with China. It's 
difficult to imagine an Asian regional cooperative with China as the 
hegemon and Japan a junior partner. ...  Taiwan has to work hard to 
support Washington's 'Japan-centric Asian Policy,' emphasizing 
Taipei-Tokyo relations and the Taiwan-Japan-US alliance. 
Unfortunately, the administration of President Ma Ying-jeou isn't 
inclined to do so.  It falls on Taiwanese, Taiwanese-Japanese and 
Taiwanese-Americans to try to influence these policies. It will be 
hard but not impossible." 
 
STANTON