VZCZCXRO0003
OO RUEHAG RUEHAST RUEHBZ RUEHDA RUEHDBU RUEHDF RUEHDU RUEHFL RUEHGI
RUEHIK RUEHJO RUEHKW RUEHLA RUEHLN RUEHLZ RUEHMA RUEHMR RUEHNP RUEHPA
RUEHPOD RUEHRN RUEHROV RUEHSK RUEHSL RUEHSR RUEHTRO RUEHVK RUEHYG
DE RUCNDT #0743/01 2161129
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 041129Z AUG 09 ZDK
FM USMISSION USUN NEW YORK
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 7026
INFO RUEHZO/AFRICAN UNION COLLECTIVE IMMEDIATE
RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE IMMEDIATE
RUEHGG/UN SECURITY COUNCIL COLLECTIVE IMMEDIATE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 USUN NEW YORK 000743 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR AF, IO, FM, USUN/W 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PREL PGOV PTER PHUM MARR MOPS KPKO UNSC SO ER
SUBJECT: AU COMMISSIONER LAMAMRA STRATEGIZES ON SOMALIA, 
HOLDS OUT HOPE FOR ERITREA 
 
USUN NEW Y 00000743  001.2 OF 002 
 
 
1.(SBU) SUMMARY. During a July 30 meeting with Ambassador 
Rice, AU Commissioner Lamamra said that there is no 
imminent threat to the TFG, but called for international 
efforts to assist the TFG in taking back 
critical pieces of territory and establishing a secure 
zone of operations. Lamamra discussed plans to hold a 
special AU Summit on conflict mitigation in Libya on August 
31, adding that the U.S. would be invited to "actively 
observe."  He said plans for a second AU Summit on 
stability and "good neighborliness" in the Horn of Africa 
were advancing and that Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki 
would be invited.  Finally, Lamamra is taking a 
wait-and-see approach to stability in Niger, stating that 
the outcome of the August 4 referendum will be critical. 
END SUMMARY. 
 
Lamamra Thinks Creatively on Somalia 
----------------------------------------- 
 
¶2. (SBU) In a July 30 meeting with Ambassador Rice, AU 
Commissioner for Peace and Security Ramtane Lamamra said 
that there is no imminent threat to the Transitional 
Federal Government (TFG), and that the "ping pong game" 
over districts between the TFG and al-Shaabab will endure 
for the foreseeable future.  Lamamra urged consideration of 
an ad-hoc military operation to take back Kismayo (the 
insurgents' spiritual center and site of an important 
seaport) 
as critical to stabilizing the country.  Stating that, "the 
battle for Mogadishu can be won outside of Mogadishu," 
Lamamra described an idea of organizing a coalition of 
foreign forces (mentioning Djibouti, Angola and Egypt), 
along with the Somali Security forces and AMISOM, to take 
back the port city.  He explained that if al-Shaabab 
understood that Kismayo was endangered, they would 
"loosen up" on Mogadishu, which would allow the TFG an 
opening to gain control.  He said that conversations with 
Angola and Egypt about providing troops to the proposed 
mission were going well.  Lamamra noted that AMISOM has 
full authority to use its troops in support of Somali 
transitional institutions, and the protection of Kismayo 
would fall into this provision.  In response to Ambassador 
Rice's question about how the city and port would be held 
after it 
is recaptured, Lamamra said that a naval blockade would 
likely be required to keep the insurgents from returning. 
 
¶3.  (SBU) Thinking creatively, Lamamra proposed the 
establishment of a "blue zone on the sea" (akin to Baghdad's 
"Green Zone") off of Somalia's coast that would be a safe 
area 
for ships holding government offices, a hospital, and 
international 
organizations. This, he stated, would allow the 
international community to operate safely out of the range 
of insurgent groups but be present in Mogadishu. 
 
One More Chance for Eritrea 
-------------------------- 
 
¶4.  (SBU) Lamamra said AU thought was being given to 
holding a special AU Summit in Libya on "stability, 
security and good neighborliness in the Horn of Africa." 
He said that although Eritrea would, "like to start over 
from square one" on the Djibouti Peace Process, the AU would 
likely invite Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki to the Summit 
and 
attempt to create a format that will persuade Eritrea to 
cooperate.  Lamamra will ask Libyan President Gaddafi to 
encourage Isaias to attend the summit, but admitted that, 
"if Eritrea does not help itself, we cannot help." 
Ambassador Rice questioned the contrast between the AU's 
recent 
call for sanctions against Eritrea and this new idea to 
make overtures to Isaias. 
 
¶5.  (SBU)  Lamamra also noted plans for a special August 31 
African Union Summit devoted to conflict mitigation.  He 
said that the Summit will focus on the Horn of Africa, 
including Sudan, Chad, the Great Lakes region and 
Guinea-Bissau.  He said that the U.S. would be invited to 
"actively observe."  Ambassador Rice encouraged Lamamra to 
focus also on Cote d'Ivoire, which is in need of 
international attention. 
 
AU Thoughts on Niger 
---------------------- 
 
USUN NEW Y 00000743  002.2 OF 002 
 
 
 
¶6. (C) Asked by Ambassador Rice for his assessment of the 
situation in Niger, Lamamra stated that it will become 
clear with the August 4 resolution whether there will be an 
"immediate disaster" or not.  Lamara stated that the 
leadership in Niger told ECOWAS that what it has done in 
Niger is consistent with the will of the people and that 
the likelihood of a coup d'etat will depend on the 
referendum's outcome. 
RICE