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UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 19 TOKYO 001953 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR E, P, EB, EAP/J, EAP/P, EAP/PD, PA; 
WHITE HOUSE/NSC/NEC; JUSTICE FOR STU CHEMTOB IN ANTI-TRUST DIVISION; 
TREASURY/OASIA/IMI/JAPAN; DEPT PASS USTR/PUBLIC AFFAIRS OFFICE; 
SECDEF FOR JCS-J-5/JAPAN, 
DASD/ISA/EAPR/JAPAN; DEPT PASS ELECTRONICALLY TO USDA 
FAS/ITP FOR SCHROETER; PACOM HONOLULU FOR PUBLIC DIPLOMACY ADVISOR; 
CINCPAC FLT/PA/ COMNAVFORJAPAN/PA. 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: OIIP KMDR KPAO PGOV PINR ECON ELAB JA
 
SUBJECT:  DAILY SUMMARY OF JAPANESE PRESS 08/24/09 
 
INDEX: 
(1) Political column by Yoichi Kato, editorial writer: Gaps in 
political biorhythm and policies of DPJ and Obama administration 
(Asahi) 
(2) Japan needs comprehensive foreign policy strategy (Yomiuri) 
(3) Do not drop out from the solidarity of nations (Yomiuri) 
(4) Viewpoint in making selection (Part 3): Discuss national 
security issue independently (Mainichi) 
(5) Manifestos for 2009 Lower House election: Focus for choosing the 
party to take on reins of government; Pressure from left prevents 
DPJ from coming up with concrete policy; LDP gives up specifying 
right to collective self-defense in its manifesto (Sankei) 
(6) Column article: Using ODA to control economic bubble (Sankei) 
(7) Tokyo Shimbun pre-election analysis: DPJ likely to win over 300 
seats, LDP about 100 (Tokyo Shimbun) 
(8) DPJ hastily adding more substance to plan for new administration 
(Nikkei) 
(9) 2009 Lower House election: Struggle for power as "Hatoyama 
government" gets ready to launch; Shadow of Ozawa flickers (last 
installment) (Sankei) 
(10) Escalating nuclear power generation business: Obtaining uranium 
is top (Yomiuri) 
(11) Chinese government rejects MADF vessels' visit to Hong Kong, 
possibly because of Uyghur issue (Yomiuri) 
(12) Rough sailing in selection of FX: ASDF should clarify 
operational concept (Yomiuri) 
(13) TOP HEADLINES 
(14) EDITORIALS 
(15) Prime Minister's schedule (Nikkei) 
 
ARTICLES: 
 
(1) Political column by Yoichi Kato, editorial writer: Gaps in 
political biorhythm and policies of DPJ and Obama administration 
 
ASAHI (Page 15) (Full) 
August 24, 2009 
 
With the arrival of new U.S. Ambassador to Japan John Roos in his 
post, the lineup of the Obama administration's Japan policy team has 
now been set. Looking over the White House, the Department of State, 
and the Department of Defense, the team, made up of well-known 
practical persons affiliated with the Democratic Party, is quite 
strong. 
 
When I met some of them, I felt their strong enthusiasm for easing 
the strains in the relationship between Japan and the United States 
that had developed during the closing days of the Bush 
administration over the U.S.'s delisting of North Korea as a state 
sponsor of terrorism. 
 
In Japan, the possibility of a change of government has moved closer 
to reality. Both Tokyo and Washington appear to be ready for "making 
a fresh start." However, it seems that it will be difficult for the 
two countries to return to the starting point because there remain 
two large gaps in the positions of the two countries. 
 
One of the two gaps is a difference in political biorhythm. 
 
The U.S. administration launched an overall review of the U.S. 
diplomatic and security strategies immediately after its 
inauguration. The Obama administration is trying to recreate the 
 
TOKYO 00001953  002 OF 019 
 
 
East Asia Strategy Report (EASR), which was first set up by the 
Clinton administration. The Obama administration plans to complete a 
new EASR by early next year. 
 
However, Tokyo is unlikely to act in concert with Washington. Japan 
is scheduled to compile a new National Defense Program Outline by 
the end of the year. If an administration-led by the Democratic 
Party of Japan (DPJ) is inaugurated, there is a rumor that the 
compilation of the new National Defense Outline will be delayed for 
one year. The U.S. side reportedly was informed by sources familiar 
with the DPJ that until the party wins a single-party majority in 
the Upper House in next summer, it will be unable to do full-scale 
policy making. 
 
In next summer, the United States will enter an inward-looking mode 
an eye on the mid-term congressional elections in the fall. The 
political situations of the two countries will not get along this 
year and next year. 
 
The other gap is in the contents of the alliance policy. 
 
Washington wants Japan not to refer to such core issues as the U.S. 
Status of Forces Agreement (SOFA) and an agreement on the 
realignment of U.S. Forces Japan that consist the bases of the 
bilateral alliance. The U.S. side has warned that the USFJ 
realignment agreement is like building blocks in that if you touch 
one issue, the whole agreement could collapse. This has not changed 
even under the Obama administration. 
 
The U.S. administration is very much concerned because the DPJ, 
however, asserts that it will review the USFJ realignment agreement. 
Although the DPJ uses a soft expression in its manifesto for the 
Aug. 30 House of Representatives election, DPJ President Yukio 
Hatoyama stated on the relocation of the U.S. Marine's Air Station 
Futenma in a party-heads debate on Aug. 17: "We have no intention to 
alter our basic position (of seeking the relocation of Futenma out 
of Okinawa)." 
 
Support ratings for the Obama administration have dropped due to its 
medical insurance reform problem. The U.S. government expects Japan 
to become a partner able to increase policy resources by bring about 
diplomatic achievements. It does not want a negotiator that eats up 
policy resources by "realigning" the USFJ realignment. Amid the 
growing possibility of the DPJ assuming the reins of government, 
some U.S. administration officials are perplexed at the possible 
birth of a DPJ government and some have given up hope. 
 
(2) Japan needs comprehensive foreign policy strategy 
 
YOMIURI (Page 11) (Full) 
August 22, 2009 
 
Akihiko Tanaka, professor at the University of Tokyo 
 
The world is at a crossroads. U.S. power is declining, while China 
is making its presence increasingly felt. The war against terror 
continues, while the nuclear threat is growing. Which way should 
Japan go as the old order is shaken and the balance of power shifts? 
How well can the foreign and security policies of the various 
political parties respond to fresh challenges? --  Ryuichi Otsuka, a 
member of the editorial board. 
 
 
TOKYO 00001953  003 OF 019 
 
 
(Ryuichi Otsuka spoke with two experts--Akihiko Tanaka and Yukio 
Okamoto-and compiled their comments.  Prof. Tanaka's comments appear 
below; Mr. Okamoto's are found in the following article.) 
 
The world is experiencing a complex crisis. We are still mired in 
the financial crisis precipitated by the collapse of Lehman Brothers 
last September, while the threat of terrorism since 9/11 is still 
with us. The situation in Afghanistan, a hotbed of terrorism, is 
also serious. North Korea's nuclear weapons constitute a direct 
threat to Japan. 
 
Structurally speaking, the world is heading toward a redistribution 
of power. While America will probably continue to play a leading 
role, China, India, and other newly emerging economies will play 
growing roles. A truly multipolar era is arriving -- a world in 
which the U.S., China, India, and West Europe will compete on a 
similar scale is approaching. 
 
The challenge for Japan is that on its present scale it will no 
longer be able to compete. At the end of the Cold War Japan 
possessed economic power that posed a threat to the U.S. There was a 
lot of talk about the absurdity of not wielding political power 
befitting such economic power. That Japan deserved to hold political 
power equivalent to its economic power was advanced as an argument 
for its permanent membership in the UN Security Council (UNSC). 
 
In a situation where scale is no longer what counts, how should 
Japan make its presence felt and protect the interests of its 
citizens? How should it deal with China's out-sized presence? What 
should it do not to be squeezed between the U.S. and China? Japan is 
facing ever more difficult problems. It is not enough to think of 
foreign and security policies in conventional terms, such as abiding 
by a pacifist line or prioritizing the Japan-U.S. alliance. 
 
However, neither the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) nor the 
Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) has been able to put forward a 
vision of how Japan can project its presence in a situation where 
relatively it is shrinking in scale. For sure, specific foreign 
policy issues are important. However, there is no over-arching 
foreign policy strategy transcending these issues. 
 
The two parties' collection of policies gives the impression of turf 
battles among the various ministries. For the LDP, policies are 
divided into foreign affairs and security, resources and energy, and 
the environment and global warming. This sounds like the old policy 
speeches of the prime ministers. While campaign pledges do 
ultimately have to be backed by fiscal funding and, in a sense, 
their parceling among different ministries is, in a sense, 
inevitable, the parties should give us the whole picture of the 
future of Japan that they are working for, a vision that encompasses 
all the pledges. 
 
The urgent issues for the people are those related to allaying their 
concerns about matters directly affecting their livelihoods, such as 
the economic crisis, employment, and pensions. All parties have 
presented their solutions. That is well and good, but Japan's power 
will continue to decline if it does not formulate a policy for 
survival amid the seismic shifts in the international community. 
 
In a book he published when he was foreign minister Prime Minister 
Taro Aso wrote, "Japan can do it" and "Japan is an incredible 
country." However, absent from this election has been the message 
 
TOKYO 00001953  004 OF 019 
 
 
that Japan can remain a vibrant proactive country in the world 
community. The same is true with the DPJ. 
 
I believe Japan has a lot of potential. For example, today there is 
unprecedented appreciation of Japanese culture. 
 
It is fine for the DPJ to criticize the construction of a national 
media art center dubbed the "anime hall of fame" as a "state-run 
manga caf." But the novels of Haruki Murakami, the anime of Hayao 
Miyazaki, and Japanese cuisine are not concrete things. So the 
argument that there is no need to build infrastructure is valid. 
However, if infrastructure is not the answer, what does the DPJ 
propose to do to make full use of different forms of Japanese soft 
power and enhance Japan's presence? 
 
I would like to see more constructive discussions of how to make 
good use of Japan's vitality, as well as a vision for world 
leadership that is not just limited to culture. 
 
(3) Do not drop out from the solidarity of nations 
 
YOMIURI (Page 11) (Full) 
August 22, 2009 
 
Yukio Okamoto, foreign affairs commentator 
 
Japan should not drop out from the global "mutual-aid society" 
conducing the war against terrorism. A typical example is the war in 
Afghanistan.  The U.S. is not the only target of the international 
terrorist organization Al Qaeda. That is why the international 
community is united in this fight. In a peaceful expanse of sea 
Japan is providing fuel to multinational forces patrolling the 
Indian Ocean, and with that, it is barely able to be counted as a 
member of the mutual-aid society. It is now facing a decision on 
whether to continue this minimal operation or to take a further step 
and dispatch ground troops, which involves greater risk, in answer 
to the call of the international community. It also needs to stop 
addressing this matter with makeshift special-measure laws. 
 
As for relations with the U.S., the Japan-U.S. alliance has been 
instrumental in ensuring Japan's security and prosperity. The 
overall foreign policy of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) has 
been correct. 
 
In security policy there are few options. Actually, there are only 
three: unarmed neutrality, armed neutrality, and alliance. In theory 
collective security is another option, albeit an unlikely one among 
East Asian countries with diverse political systems, military 
capabilities, and basic values. 
 
Which of the three options should Japan select? Only a small 
percentage of people support unarmed neutrality. Armed neutrality, 
in the absence of a dramatic reinforcement of the Self-Defense 
Forces (SDF), as well as nuclear armament, is not viable vis-`-vis 
neighboring countries. That leaves only alliance. A process of 
elimination winnows the field of possible allies to only one with 
which Japan shares the common values of freedom and democracy - the 
United States. 
 
Even the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) affirms the Japan-U.S. 
alliance is the basis of foreign policy. An alliance brings 
intrinsic rights and duties. Article 5 of the security treaty 
 
TOKYO 00001953  005 OF 019 
 
 
establishes the defense of Japan as the United States' duty, while 
Article 6 stipulates the provision of military bases is Japan's duty 
in return. These two reciprocal obligations are a set. Japan cannot 
request the unilateral easing of its obligation. There can be no 
pick and choose here. 
 
The DPJ must quickly come up with a security policy rooted in 
reality. If it takes over the reins of government, it will have to 
deal with U.S. President Barack Obama's visit to Japan in November 
and the drafting of the Mid-Term Defense Buildup Program and the 
National Defense Program Guidelines (NDPG) in December, which will 
determine the direction of defense policy. Any mistakes will be 
irreversible. 
 
DPJ President Yukio Hatoyama has also said that he will seek an 
"optimum distance" from the U.S., but the U.S. is eager to 
strengthen its ties with China. If Japan indicates a desire to 
weaken relations with the U.S., it will then approach China without 
any qualms. The U.S. and China may proceed to make decisions for 
Asia without heeding Japan's wishes. 
 
I am also dissatisfied with the LDP. Japan is the only 
industrialized country that has been reducing its defense spending 
year after year. I think this is irresponsible in light of North 
Korea's development of nuclear arms, and China's modernization of 
its nuclear arsenal and building of a blue water navy. The LDP has 
given little importance to national defense. 
 
The budget for official development assistance (ODA), which is 
essentially a tax paid as a member of the international community, 
has been reduced by over 40 percent from its peak. China has 
dispatched 2,000 troops for UN peacekeeping operations (PKO) while 
Japan has only sent 40. Does it want to be left out of the 
mutual-aid society and live in isolation? 
 
On the other hand, it is also important to improve relations with 
Asia. Will it be possible to achieve reconciliation with China and 
South Korea through a process similar to that between Germany and 
France? In this I pin my hopes on the DPJ. The interpretation of 
history is at the root of this issue. If the DPJ takes over the 
administration, I would like to see a blueprint of its plans for 
reconciliation with the Asian countries. 
 
(4) Viewpoint in making selection (Part 3): Discuss national 
security issue independently 
 
MAINICHI (Page 1) (Full) 
August 21, 2009 
 
By Kenji Bando, chief foreign news editor 
 
"A global economic crisis brings about a serious outcome 
geopolitically," says Roger Altman, who served as the assistant 
secretary of the U.S. Department of State under the Clinton 
administration, in the latest issue of the bimonthly magazine 
Foreign Affairs. He is close to the administration of President 
Barack Obama. 
 
Altman noted in the article titled, "Recession of globalization": 
"Japan, the U.S. and other industrialized countries in Europe have 
received the most serious blow, posing doubts over the liberalistic 
economic models. China, whose economy returned to a recovery track 
 
TOKYO 00001953  006 OF 019 
 
 
most quickly, has survived in an age of competition. We are entering 
a new age in which there is no leader, emerging from the U.S.-led 
unipolar age in the post-cold war." 
 
The Obama administration was inaugurated under the slogan of 
"change." The Bush Republican administration lost public support due 
to the Iraq war. Given the U.S.-triggered financial crisis getting 
more serious, change from a long-term perspective is now being 
sought. 
 
On foreign and national security policies, the Obama administration 
has begun to place emphasis on favoring diversity, instead of 
imposing its values on other countries. This policy switch is 
reflected in its priority to the framework of the Group of 20 (G-20) 
over that of the Group of Eight (G-8), its willingness to hold talks 
with Iran and North Korea, as well as its emphasis on U.S.-China 
strategic talks. 
 
Next year marks the 50th anniversary of the revision of the 
U.S.-Japan Security Treaty. A response to the Japan-U.S. security 
arrangements is a campaign issue for the upcoming Lower House 
election in Japan. In dealing with North Korea's development of 
nuclear weapons and China's military expansion, cooperation between 
Japan and the U.S. is indispensable. Washington has a sense of 
vigilance against the Democratic Party of Japan for its stance of 
favoring independence and equality. 
 
However, the U.S. has begun to give priority to cooperation in 
dealing with global-scale "new threats," such as climate change, 
infectious diseases, and energy shortage, in addition to traditional 
cooperation in the security area, centered on military power. Joseph 
Nye, Harvard University professor knowledgeable of Japanese affairs, 
emphasized: "In new areas, Japan is a more equal partner." 
 
The U.S. is hopeful of acquiring Japan's advanced technologies to 
realize President Obama's "Green New Deal" designed to foster new 
industries in the environment sector. New U.S. Ambassador to Japan 
John Roos, who arrived in Japan to take up his new post on Aug. 19, 
worked as a lawyer in Silicon Valley, so he is well-versed in new 
energy development. 
 
The U.S. probably is aiming to restore its leadership by 
regenerating its comprehensive national power, while ignoring slight 
differences and picking other countries' brains and power. 
 
As shown by Obama's call for the goal of a world free of nuclear 
weapons, the U.S. has gradually changed its view about national 
security. Japan remains unable to come up with measures to cope with 
problems caused by its graying society. This inability, rather than 
the restrictions on its military operations, is the main cause of 
Japan's limitations. 
 
We are no longer in an age in which Japan can enjoy security and 
prosperity only with dependence on the U.S. and the Japan-U.S. 
security arrangements. Discussing security issues in a hasty way 
must be avoided, but it is necessary to consider independently 
future options for Japan-U.S. cooperation and its security system in 
accordance with the changes in the international environment and the 
emergence of new threats. The campaign for the upcoming Lower House 
election is the starting point of such an effort. 
 
(5) Manifestos for 2009 Lower House election: Focus for choosing the 
 
TOKYO 00001953  007 OF 019 
 
 
party to take on reins of government; Pressure from left prevents 
DPJ from coming up with concrete policy; LDP gives up specifying 
right to collective self-defense in its manifesto 
 
SANKEI (Page 3) (Abridged) 
August 24, 2009 
 
Yoshiki Ozaki, Akajima Shiho 
 
The Korean Peninsula situation has begun showing some signs of 
change due to such events as the recent visit to North Korea by 
former U.S. President Bill Clinton and North Korea condolence 
delegation to South Korea to pay respects to the  late former 
President Kim Dae Jung. Meeting with South Korean President Lee 
Myung Bak on August 23, the North Korean delegation conveyed to him 
North Korean leader Kim Jong Il's message on promoting cooperation 
between the South and North. But if talks do not move forward as 
Pyongyang expects, the North might conduct another nuclear test and 
launch ballistic missiles. The abduction issue and the development 
of ballistic missiles and nuclear weapons can continue looming over 
as "clear and present dangers." 
 
On June 18, a meeting took place between Democratic Party of Japan 
(DPJ) executives and representatives of the Association of the 
Families of Victims of Kidnapped by North Korea (AFVKN) and the 
National Association for the Rescue of Japanese Kidnapped by North 
Korea (NARKN) at DPJ headquarters in Tokyo's Nagatacho. At the 
meeting, AFVKN Secretary General Teruaki Masumoto, who was visiting 
there to urge the DPJ to specify in its manifesto (campaign pledges) 
its determination to find a solution to the abduction issue, 
complained about the existence of some DPJ lawmakers who think Japan 
must not take steps that irritate North Korea. In response, Hatoyama 
said before Masumoto and Sakie Yokota, the mother of Megumi Yokota: 
"True, there are such people, but they are a minority. They cannot 
take on important positions under my responsibility. North Korea 
requires pressure." 
 
"This means Mr. Hatoyama will stifle individuals with ties to North 
Korea," a mid-level DPJ lawmaker explained. In fact, the DPJ vows in 
its manifesto to make utmost efforts to resolve the abduction issue 
when it takes over the helm of government. To a person well-versed 
in the abduction issue, the fact that Hatoyama acknowledged the 
existence of pro-DPRK forces in the DPJ is more surprising (than its 
stance on the abduction issue itself). 
 
? 
 
Atsuhiko Isozaki, a lecturer at Keio University who is well-versed 
in North Korean affairs, indicated that because the DPJ includes 
many former Japan Socialist Party ranks, it has not come up with 
concrete policy toward the North. 
 
On Aug. 14, the Nodong Sinmun, the Korean Workers Party organ paper, 
expressed the following view while pointing out the DPJ's strong 
likelihood to take over the reins of government in the Aug. 30 House 
of Representatives election: "North Korea must closely monitor 
whether the DPJ heads for a new direction or follow the same 
direction as the LDP." In other words, Pyongyang is going to simply 
watching a Hatoyama administration's moves. 
 
At a party-head debate held on Aug. 12, Hatoyama expressed a plan to 
take necessary legislative measures to inspect cargos on vessels 
 
TOKYO 00001953  008 OF 019 
 
 
connected with North Korea. The LDP manifesto, too, vows to take 
legislative measures. There is a strong possibility that the law 
will be enacted during the extraordinary Diet session in the fall. 
Nevertheless, if North Korea plays up a "dialogue mood," pro-DPRK 
forces in the DPJ might gain momentum. 
 
The question of altering the government's interpretation of the 
right to collective self-defense is unavoidable in dealing with the 
military threat from North Korea. 
 
At a press conference on Aug. 4, Hatoyama expressed a view 
dismissive of changing the government's interpretation of the right 
to collective self-defense that Japan possesses the right under 
international law but is not allowed to exercise it under its 
Constitution. The United States can defense Japan by exercising its 
collective defense right. But in compliance with the government's 
interpretation of the right, Japan can neither defend U.S. warships 
from ballistic missile attacks in the high seas nor intercept 
missiles targeting the United States. 
 
If Self-Defense Force (SDF) vessels just look on U.S. warships under 
attacks, the Japan-U.S. alliance will collapse, let alone the DPJ's 
pledge to build a close and equal relationship with the United 
States. Hatoyama simply said, "We would like to begin scrutinizing 
our thinking." 
 
The LDP manifesto that reads, "We will take necessary security 
steps," leaves some room for making changes to the government's 
interpretation. But as seen in Policy Research Council Senior Deputy 
Chairman Hiroyuki Sonoda's explanation that some LDP lawmakers had 
called for the including of the right to collective self-defense in 
its manifesto, while some others raised questions about directly 
specifying the matter in the manifesto, the party discussion 
experienced complications. 
 
Originally, the LDP had planned to sort out the relationship with 
the Constitution, including the question of the right to collective 
self-defense, in compliance with Prime Minister Taro Aso's strong 
wishes. But that has been pushed back by cautious views in the 
party. 
 
At a party-heads debate on Aug. 17, Prime Minister Aso underlined 
the need to strengthen the security foundation in connection with 
the collective self-defense right apparently in a bid to make a 
clear distinction with the DPJ. 
 
But the party has yet to deepen its discussions due party because 
its coalition partner, New Komeito, is clearly opposed to the 
exercise of the collective defense right, even though it advocates 
the steady implementation of a missile defense (MD) system. 
 
(6) Column article: Using ODA to control economic bubble 
 
SANKEI (Page 7) (Excerpts) 
August 24, 2009 
 
Hideo Kesen, commentary writer 
 
The Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MOFA) in late July reorganized its 
International Cooperation Bureau, which is responsible for official 
development assistance (ODA). The structure that divided into 
sections yen loans, grants, and technical cooperation was changed 
 
TOKYO 00001953  009 OF 019 
 
 
into a system that could strongly respond to the needs of regions or 
specific countries. 
 
MOFA's thinking is that each developing country has different aid 
needs, and determining the best aid package by country would make 
ODA more efficient. 
 
What is ODA for in terms of its definition? It is for the sake of 
Japan's "national interest," in the first place. Needless to say, 
the government should aim to provide ODA that will contribute to the 
national security and peace of mind. The international community 
operates under the principle of give and take. It is also important 
to understand that "charity is not good for its recipient." 
Furthermore, in terms of the international economy, ODA contributes 
to order and stability in the flow of money. 
 
Almost one year has passed since the financial crisis that started 
in the U.S.. Many analyses and studies have been made about the 
cause of this crisis. Many experts cite the disequilibrium in the 
flow of money as the cause. In other words, while you have countries 
like the Arab states and Russia exporting oil and China exporting 
goods which enjoy substantial balance-of-payment surpluses, there 
are countries like the U.S. that have neglected its 
balance-of-payments deficits for years. This resulted in surplus 
money in the world inundating the U.S., causing a financial bubble. 
 
Although the newly emerging economies are growing rapidly, the gap 
between rich and poor is considerable. Since the social security 
systems and medical services are inadequate, people who feel 
insecure about their future tend to increase their savings. Since 
there is little capacity to absorb investment based on real domestic 
demand in these countries, they headed for the U.S. through banks 
and other institutions. However, such investments resulted in losses 
and triggered a worldwide recession. In light of this sad reality, 
one lesson learned is that ODA should be used to improve the 
international balance of payments in the future. 
 
Aid for the African states with balance-of-payment deficits can be 
used to achieve balance-of-payment surpluses through the process of 
building domestic infrastructure, poverty reduction and increase in 
domestic savings, fostering of industries with growth potential, and 
increasing exports. 
 
For the newly emerging economies enjoying surpluses, ODA can be used 
to create the environment for investments to expand domestic demand 
through assistance for legislation of domestic laws and relaxation 
of regulations and fostering domestic industries with technical 
cooperation, in order to help reduce the surpluses. 
 
The world is expanding fiscal spending and easing monetary policies 
in its attempt to extricate itself from the recession. Excess 
liquidity has the potential of causing another bubble. The use of 
ODA to correct the disequilibrium in international balance of 
payments can be expected to help prevent the next worldwide bubble 
to a certain extent. 
 
(7) Tokyo Shimbun pre-election analysis: DPJ likely to win over 300 
seats, LDP about 100 
 
TOKYO SHIMBUN (Top play) (Slightly abridged) 
August 23, 2009 
 
 
TOKYO 00001953  010 OF 019 
 
 
The Tokyo Shimbun conducted interviews and an independent telephone 
poll on Aug. 22 ahead of the 45th House of Representatives election 
to be held on Aug. 30. The results showed that the Democratic Party 
of Japan (DPJ), the major opposition party, is likely to garner 300 
seats, perhaps as many as 320, substantially more than the number 
that would give them a majority, 241. That would represent a quantum 
leap above its pre-election strength of 115 seats. In contrast, the 
ruling coalition of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and the New 
Komeito is certain to fail to secure a majority, with the former 
suffering a major setback from its pre-election strength of 300 
seats. 
 
In the single-seat constituencies, the DPJ is certain to secure 180 
seats and has a good chance of winning an additional 50 seats. The 
DPJ has the upper hand not only in urban areas but also in rural 
areas. In the proportional representation segment as well, the DPJ 
is expected to secure 90 seats, a majority. 
 
Meanwhile, the LDP is expected to win a total of 100 seats -- 50 
seats each in the single- and proportional-representation segments. 
The LDP is fighting an uphill battle both in urban areas, where it 
demonstrated overwhelming strength in the previous 2005 election, 
and in the countryside, its traditional base of conservative 
support. Then again, it is possible for the LDP to regain lost 
ground and win over 150 seats. 
 
As for the New Komeito, which has fielded eight candidates, only one 
is certain to win a seat. Chances are high that the party will fail 
to maintain its pre-election strength of 31 seats, even including 
the rock-solid proportional representation segment. 
 
The Japan Communist Party may win more than its pre-election nine 
seats, on the strength of a solid performance in the proportional 
representation segment. The Social Democratic Party and the People's 
New Party will be hard pressed to keep their respective nine and 
four seats. 
 
Your Party is certain to win one seat. The prospects for Kaikaku 
Kurabu (Japan Renaissance Party) or the New Party Nippon (NPN) to 
secure seats are nil. 
 
The situation could change, as 36.3% and 32.8% of respondents in the 
telephone survey said they had not made up their minds regarding the 
single-seat segment and the proportional representation segment, 
respectively. 
 
DPJ ahead of other parties in 21 Tokyo districts 
 
The DPJ has fielded candidates in 22 constituencies in the 25 
single-seat districts in Tokyo. It is leading in 21 constituencies. 
There is a possibility that the DPJ, which won only one seat in the 
previous election, will achieve an overwhelming victory, 
outdistancing the LDP. 
 
In the Tokyo bloc (17 seats) as well, the DPJ is likely to garner 
nine proportional-representation seats, a substantial increase from 
the six seats it won in the previous election. The LDP, which won 
seven in the last election, is expected to win no more than five. 
Following (its victory) in the Tokyo assembly election, the DPJ 
continues to sail with the wind at its back. 
 
The situation could shift, as nearly 40% of respondents remain 
 
TOKYO 00001953  011 OF 019 
 
 
undecided regarding the single-seat segment. 
 
The LDP is enjoying a lead in the 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 6th, 7th, 12th, 
14th, 15th, 18th, 19th, 21st, 22nd, and the 24th districts. 
Meanwhile, the LDP has the upper hand in the 8th, 17th, and the 25th 
constituencies. 
 
Thirty-eight percent of respondents said they would vote for the DPJ 
in the proportional representation segment, 20.7% for the LDP, and 
6.2% for the New Komeito. Over 90% of respondents expressed interest 
in the upcoming election. 
 
(8) DPJ hastily adding more substance to plan for new 
administration 
 
NIKKEI (Page 2) (Slightly abridged) 
August 23, 2009 
 
The Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) is hurriedly adding more 
substance to its plan for a new administration included in its 
campaign manifesto (policy platform) for the Aug. 30 House of 
Representatives election. The major focus of attention is on the 
authority and membership of the new organizations proposed in the 
manifesto, such as a national strategy bureau and an administrative 
renovation council. These are core organizations to powerfully 
promote policymaking under politicians, but many points have not yet 
been clarified. Since the DPJ needs to give consideration to the 
Social Democratic Party (SDP) and the People's New Party (PNP), with 
which the DPJ has pushed ahead with election cooperation, senior DPJ 
members are working out the details of the plan in a cautious 
manner. 
 
Focus on power and lineup of proposed new organizations 
 
DPJ President Yukio Hatoyama said that he would pick the cabinet 
minister regarded as most deeply versed in policies for the top post 
of the national strategy bureau tasked with setting budget outlines 
and foreign policy. The party also plans to appoint officials 
responsible for administrative work from among both bureaucrats and 
private citizens. There is also a proposal to assign 30 persons as 
members of the strategy body. 
 
If the main opposition party takes over the reins of government, the 
party will create the new body in its first cabinet meeting and set 
it in motion when its government is inaugurated. But the party 
intends to delay legal preparations to grant the new body with 
powerful authority until after the start of the next extraordinary 
Diet session in the fall. 
 
A cabinet members' council, another proposed new panel, would 
discuss key issues prior to the first cabinet meeting. For instance, 
the DPJ would instruct the Finance Ministry to compile a budget in 
accordance with the budget outlines set by the national strategy 
bureau. The cabinet ministers' council would lay down a budgetary 
plan, and the plan would be adopted in a cabinet meeting. 
 
Another key element is an administrative reform council tasked with 
exposing wasteful spending and securing the fiscal resources to 
finance the policy measures to be adopted by the new administration. 
 
 
Hatoyama plans to bring some local government members into the 
 
TOKYO 00001953  012 OF 019 
 
 
national strategy bureau. A plan has also been proposed to 
powerfully promote decentralization reform under the prime minister 
by integrating the functions of the existing Decentralization Reform 
Committee and the Decentralization Reform Headquarters. 
 
The DPJ has yet to present details about these new organizations, 
such as the form and also the composition and selection criteria for 
their members. 
 
If a change of government takes place, the new administration will 
have to complete the formation of its cabinet and negotiations on a 
coalition government by the middle of September, with a view to the 
UN General Assembly in late September and other diplomatic events. 
There is concern that hastily created organizations could hinder the 
handling of the government. In addition, party members might be 
abuzz and the atmosphere of tension in the election campaigning 
could slacken. 
 
A senior party member told Hatoyama: "There are members who are 
talking about personnel appointments in an elated mood." 
 
Regarding a plan to establish a government independently by the DPJ, 
PNP Acting President Shizuka Kamei commented: "The DPJ must discuss 
what to do about the authority and contents (of the new 
organizations) with the PNP and the SDP. Even if a coalition 
government is established, it would come to a standstill (if these 
discussions are not conducted). 
 
(9) 2009 Lower House election: Struggle for power as "Hatoyama 
government" gets ready to launch; Shadow of Ozawa flickers (last 
installment) 
 
SANKEI (Page 3) (Full) 
August 20, 2009 
 
The Lower House election was publicly announced on August 18. 
Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) President Yukio Hatoyama kicked off 
his campaign in Nanba, Osaka, and then with vigor, quickly visited 
five prefectures, including Kyoto and Aichi prefectures.  He then 
visited Yotsuya, Tokyo, as the final place that day to deliver an 
impassioned speech, his face flushed with excitement. 
 
"For your livelihoods and futures, Japan will not last unless a 
change of government comes about. Please help the DPJ (do that)." 
 
As the dominance of the DPJ is being reported, the possibility of 
the inauguration of "Prime Minister Hatoyama" is becoming 
increasingly likely.  However, how effective the party's highlighted 
pledge for politician-led handling of government?  There is a big 
gap over security and foreign policies between the DPJ and the 
Social Democratic Party and the People's New Party.  The term 
"change of government" is moving ahead, while the outline of the 
government is still vague. 
 
The DPJ has had troubles in compiling its proportional 
representation list until the night of August 17.  DPJ Acting 
President Ichiro Ozawa called former Lower House member Yukichi 
Maeda, whose name was on the recommendation list submitted by the 
DPJ Aichi prefectural chapter. 
 
"Do not run for an election this time, you will have another 
chance." 
 
TOKYO 00001953  013 OF 019 
 
 
 
Maeda had to leave the DPJ in October 2008 to take responsibility of 
receiving donation from a pyramid selling scheme, and he had 
announced that he would not run for the Lower House election.  While 
he was a DPJ lawmaker, he served as the secretariat of "Isshin-kai," 
Ozawa's political group.  He was known as an Ozawa close aide within 
and outside the party. 
 
The DPJ had difficulties in coordinating the order of the DPJ's 
candidates in the proportional representation constituency, because 
election campaign is going in favor of the party and the possibility 
became high that a candidate only running for a proportional 
representation constituency and listed lower in the list and not 
likely to win at normal times might win this time.  If they know 
they cannot win from the beginning, they can give it up.  However, 
they now have a possibility of winning, so there were fierce battles 
among the candidates listed low. 
 
"Ozawa is the only one who can settle the issue by force" (according 
to a DPJ official). 
 
Ozawa was given a free hand in coordinating the list.  As a result, 
the "shadow of Ozawa" loomed behind the list announced on the 
morning of August 18. 
 
In fact, a candidate who is close to Ozawa and decided to be on the 
list was rejoiced at the surprising news, saying, "It came as a 
surprise to me.  I have to start preparing for the election now." 
It implies that the list was made at the initiative of Ozawa.  An 
Upper House member from the Hokuriku-Shinetsu bloc had to explain to 
local supporters, because they asked about what has caused the 
difference in the list's order. 
 
A candidate from the Minami-Kanto Bloc openly expresses discontent. 
 
 
"There are many mysteries about the list.  Everything might be 
'Ozawa Brand.'" 
 
"All DPJ candidates in the prefectural constituencies will win." 
"If the 'DPJ government' is inaugurated, I will join the Cabinet." 
 
 
A DPJ senior official who repeatedly made such remarks during an 
election campaign was singled out and criticized at a meeting of the 
three top DPJ officials, including President Hatoyama and Secretary 
General Katsuya Okada, held at the party headquarters on August 3. 
One of the attendees warned that "Is not the election campaign 
coming loose?"  As the attendee is concerned, DPJ's preparedness for 
election is, in fact, gradually slackening. 
 
However, the future of the DPJ is not as stable as to be intoxicated 
with the atmosphere of "easy victory."  Hatoyama as well as Ozawa 
has had a political donation issue, and there are many pitfalls 
ahead. 
 
"Mr. Hatoyama often sinks into serious thought, so do not give him 
any strange information." 
 
Ozawa made the order to party officials in mid-August.  He is likely 
to have worried that Hatoyama might distress himself by the issue of 
falsified report on political funding. 
 
TOKYO 00001953  014 OF 019 
 
 
 
Hatoyama might be able to get the issue out of his mind during the 
election campaign, but the falsified report issue will haunt the DPJ 
even after the Lower House election.  If the DPJ takes control of 
the government, the "opposition Liberal Democratic Party" will be 
sure to take up the issue in the extraordinary election scheduled to 
be convened in fall. 
 
"I would like to take power and restore confidence in politics," 
said Hatoyama in a speech in Hachinohe, Aomori Prefecture on August 
¶19.  If he topples by his own "money and politics" issue, the DPJ 
will lose public expectation for the "DPJ government" at once. 
 
(10) Escalating nuclear power generation business: Obtaining uranium 
is top 
 
YOMIURI (Page 8) (Full) 
August 21, 2009 
 
"It is important to expand and strengthen business areas upstream." 
President of Toshiba Corporation Norio Sasaki stressed at a 
management briefing on August 5. 
 
If one portrays the nuclear power generation business as a river, 
construction of a nuclear power plant, which is the center of the 
business, would be the middle part of the river.  The process of 
mining uranium and producing fuel for nuclear power plant would be 
the upstream part and the lower part of the river would be the 
recycling of spent nuclear fuel.  Nuclear power plant builders, who 
want to secure the upstream part of the business, are rushing to 
secure uranium. 
 
Toshiba Corporation obtained an interest in a uranium mine in 
Kazakhstan, which has the second largest uranium reserve in the 
world.  Toshiba also capitalized on a big Canadian uranium 
development company in February.  Following the conclusion of the 
Japan-Russia Nuclear Energy Agreement in May, Toshiba started 
discussion with a Russian national nuclear company on using stored 
enriched uranium for business.  It is a strategy to enrich uranium, 
mined in Kazakhstan, in Russia, which has the highest capability in 
the world. 
 
Mitsubishi Heavy Industries will use the group's organizational 
strength.  It set up a joint venture company with Mitsubishi 
Material Corporation, Mitsubishi Corporation, and French Areva to 
design, produce, and sell fuel on a consistent basis. 
 
Hitachi has been cautious about independently proceeding upstream, 
as (Vice President Hiroaki Nakanishi) said, "(Hitachi) has 
established a strong relationship with U.S. company, General 
Electric (GE)."  However, Hitachi tied up with Cameco Corp, the 
world's largest uranium production company, and secured a uranium 
ore supply route. 
 
Companies are rushing to move upstream, because it is viewed that a 
"business, which has a mixture of uranium procurement and 
construction of a nuclear power plant will become mainstream" (Tokyo 
Foundation researcher Taisuke Abiru). 
 
It is not easy for emerging countries, which have no know-how about 
nuclear power generation, to procure fuel on its own.  Whether to be 
able to establish a consistent system from (procurement of) fuel to 
 
TOKYO 00001953  015 OF 019 
 
 
construction of (nuclear power) plant is the key to win in 
competition for orders. 
 
It is said that uranium reserves will not dry up for another 
century.  It is abundant (amount of reserve) at this point compared 
with 40 years of oil and 60 years of natural gas.  However, if a 
rush of nuclear power plant construction continues, the uranium 
supply could dry up.  A sense of crisis is also intensifying the 
competition to secure uranium. 
 
Meanwhile, (companies') approach to the downstream part of the 
business is lagging behind, compared to upstream efforts.  A nuclear 
fuel cycle is indispensable for a long-term stable operation of 
nuclear power plant.  It is also important from the viewpoint of 
nuclear nonproliferation.  Only a limited number of countries have 
the technology (of recycling nuclear fuel).  It has been becoming a 
global challenge. 
 
Japanese companies pooled their technologies and built a nuclear 
fuel-cycle facility in Rokkasho Village in Aomori Prefecture. 
However, due to a series of mishaps, when the facility will start 
operation is unknown.  Joint efforts by public and private sectors 
will be the key for Japanese companies to become global as 
comprehensive nuclear-power plant builders. 
 
(11) Chinese government rejects MADF vessels' visit to Hong Kong, 
possibly because of Uyghur issue 
 
YOMIURI (Page4) (Slightly abridged) 
August 22, 2009 
 
The Chinese government has rejected a Japanese proposal for Maritime 
Self-Defense Force (MSDF) vessels to call at Hong Kong in August or 
early September, citing scheduling difficulties. 
 
According to the Ministry of Defense and other sources, the MSDF 
sounded out the Chinese government about a visit to Hong Kong by its 
training ships Kashima and Shimayuki and its destroyer Yugiri 
embarking some 710 MSDF officer candidates in all in conformity with 
an agreement to promote defense exchanges, reached at the 
Japan-China defense ministerial meeting in March this year. In 
response, the Chinese side conveyed its rejection to Tokyo via the 
Japanese Consulate General in Hong Kong earlier this month. Some 
Japanese observers believe China's rejection of the port call is 
connected with the recent visit to Japan by World Uyghur Congress 
President Rebiya Kadeer, a visit to Japan later this year by former 
Taiwanese president Lee Teng-hui, and a visit to Japan by the 14th 
Dalai Lama, the spiritual leader of Tibet. 
 
(12) Rough sailing in selection of FX: ASDF should clarify 
operational concept 
 
YOMIURI (Page 11) (Full) 
August 22, 2009 
 
Hidemichi Katsumata, editorial staff member 
 
The process of selecting the next fighter (FX) for the Air 
Self-Defense Force (ASDF) is in a state of confusion, and the budget 
requests for the next fiscal year to be published in late August 
will not include allocations for the procurement of the FX. 
 
 
TOKYO 00001953  016 OF 019 
 
 
The selection process started in earnest three years ago, and the 
ASDF has been eying the U.S.-made state-of-the-art F-22 fighter. One 
senior ADSF officer confessed that Japan wants the F-22 "very 
badly." This is because the F-22 has very high stealth performance 
meaning it is very hard to detect with radar, possesses supersonic 
cruise capability, and is termed the "most powerful" fighter. 
However, the U.S. has prohibited its export precisely due to its 
sophisticated military technology. The U.S. defense budget has also 
been reviewed in April, resulting in the discontinuation of the 
production of the F-22. 
 
One would think that the FX selection process was now back at square 
one, but during his visit to the U.S. in May, Defense Minister 
Yasukazu Hamada made a request to U.S. Secretary of Defense Robert 
Gates regarding the export of the F-22. The U.S. Congress also 
passed a bill on studying the possibility of exporting the F-22. 
Therefore, the ASDF is not fully resigned to giving up on this 
aircraft. ASDF Chief of Staff Kenichiro Hokasono stated at a news 
conference on August 7 that the situation "is not completely 
hopeless." It is said in the Ministry of Defense (MOD) that "the 
ministry, including the minister, is in a state of not being able to 
back down." But is this the best option? 
 
One reason for such doubts is that the ASDF has been unclear about 
the role of the FX in its future fleet of aircraft. 
 
When the National Defense Program Guidelines were revised five years 
ago, the ASDF did away with any distinction between the "main 
fighters," which are meant for anti-aircraft operations, and 
"support fighters," which are responsible for ground and anti-ship 
attack, unifying all 260 fighters under the category of 
"multi-purpose fighters." 
 
After the selection of the FX, the ASDF's main fighter F-15 will be 
become obsolete in over 10 years, and after that, the F-2s will have 
to be updated. Ideally, along with the selection of the FX, the ASDF 
needs to clarify its concept of operations on the capabilities and 
operational requirements for its future fighters, then explain the 
models and number that need to be procured. 
 
Another problem is that little attention is paid to the production 
and technical base, which is important for the stable operation of 
the fighters. 
 
There are two ways to import fighters from overseas: licensed 
domestic production by paying for the patents and designs of foreign 
manufacturers and import of finished products. After World War II, 
the ASDF has mostly maintained a system of licensed domestic 
production for over 50 years, starting with the F-86 fighters. 
 
Two years ago, a U.S. Air Force (USAF) F-15 fighter ruptured in 
flight, and it took 3.5 months before the USAF could resume 
operation of the F-15. However, Japanese manufacturers, using 
technology accumulated through licensed production, were able to 
pinpoint the cause on their own, and the ASDF resumed the operation 
of the F-15 only 18 days after the accident. Japanese technicians 
involved with licensed production say that "fighters are an 
amalgamation of advanced technology. It is impossible to maintain 
the technology without licensed production." 
 
Even if the procurement of the F-22 or the F-35, which is still in 
the development stage, becomes possible, the method is expected to 
 
TOKYO 00001953  017 OF 019 
 
 
be the import of finished products since these fighters use many top 
secret technologies. The aircraft itself will have to be sent back 
to the U.S. every time repairs are required, which means the 
utilization rate of the fighters will be very low. At the same time, 
the domestic production and technical base is very likely to be 
lost. 
 
The important thing in FX selection is how to maintain and improve 
Japan's technology and development capability when the time comes 
for the next fighter after the FX. Russia is said to be deploying 
stealth fighters six years from now and China is expected to do the 
same in 10 years. By that time, they will be undertaking the 
development of even more advanced capabilities. 
 
The UK has been eagerly promoting its Eurofighter as a candidate for 
the FX this time. However, it is not stopping at the Eurofighter and 
is participating in the joint development of the F-35, adopting an 
attitude of constantly pursuing the most advanced technology. Japan 
should learn from this. The MOD should set up a mechanism for 
integrating continuous research and development with the production 
and technical base. 
 
(13) TOP HEADLINES 
 
Asahi: 
Ruling coalition heavyweights stay in home constituencies to 
campaign 
 
Mainichi: 
LDP steps up criticism against DPJ to overcome inferior position in 
general election, DPJ guards against letting advantage slip 
 
Yomiuri, Sankei, and Tokyo Shimbun: 
North Korean delegation conveys North Korean leader Kim Jong Il's 
message to South Korean President Lee calling for resumption of 
dialogue to improve South-North ties 
 
Nikkei: 
Lawson, Matsumotokiyoshi eye business tie-up to open new outlets 
starting next spring 
 
Akahata: 
Appearing on NHK program, Chairman Shii calls for shift of weight 
from business world to household finances, and foreign policy that 
makes use of Article 9 of the Constitution 
 
(14) EDITORIALS 
 
Asahi: 
(1) 2009 general election: Multilayered livelihood support system 
essential 
(2) Disputes and international law: Japan must work for humanitarian 
causes 
 
Mainichi: 
(1) Six days before 2009 Lower House election: One vote carries 
greater significance 
(2) Lower House election: Science and technology-oriented country; 
Solid research base vital 
 
Yomiuri: 
(1) Both LDP's, DPJ's recipes for growth lack punch 
 
TOKYO 00001953  018 OF 019 
 
 
(2) Decentralization: Shift of power requires specific discussion 
 
Nikkei: 
(1) Massive chain-store operators faced with three "reductions" 
 
Sankei: 
(1) Political parties must pledge to carry out civil service reform 
from viewpoint of structural reforms 
(2) Proposed income indemnity system may run counter to plan to 
increase farmers 
 
Tokyo Shimbun: 
(1) 2009 Lower House election: Improving pension system a top 
priority 
(2) Nikkei Stock Average that has been hovering around 10,000 level 
must be monitored carefully 
 
Akahata: 
(1) Large-firm-oriented policy must be corrected to put more weight 
on small and medium-sized enterprises 
 
(15) Prime Minister's schedule, August 22 
 
NIKKEI (Page 2) (Full) 
August 23, 2009 
 
07:03 
Met Cabinet Office Director General Omori at Haneda Airport. 
 
07:31 
Departed Haneda on ASDF U-4 multipurpose aircraft. 
 
08:24 
Arrived at Kobe Airport. Met with Hyogo Governor Ido. 
 
10:28 
Met Sayo Town mayor at town government office. 
 
10:43 
Visited shopping mall in front of JR Sayo Station that was affected 
by torrential rains. 
 
10:48 
Returned to Sayo Town government office. 
 
12:05 
Met his secretary at Okura Hotel Kobe in Kobe City. 
 
13:27 
Delivered stump speech in front of Daimaru Department Store. 
 
14:26 
Visited New Komeito candidate's election office in Amagasaki City. 
 
15:01 
Visited LDP candidate's election office in Itami City. 
 
15:37- 
Gave stump speeches in Osaka City. 
 
17:00 
Visited New Komeito candidate's election office in Sakai City. 
 
TOKYO 00001953  019 OF 019 
 
 
18:27 Departed Kansai Airport via JAL 186. 
 
19:16 
Arrived at Haneda Airport. 
 
20:02 
Arrived at his official residence. 
 
Prime Minister's schedule, August 23 
 
NIKKEI (Page 2) (Full) 
August 24, 2009 
 
07:05 
Appeared on Fuji TV program at Grand Prince Hotel Akasaka. 
 
08:43 
Appeared on TV Asahi program. 
 
11:56 
Arrived at LDP headquarters. 
 
13:44 - 
Delivered stump speeches in various locations in Chiba Prefecture. 
 
19:11- 
Stump speeches in Tokyo. 
 
21:43 
Arrived at his official residence. 
 
ROOS