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FM AMEMBASSY STOCKHOLM
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 4630
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RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUEHBS/USEU BRUSSELS PRIORITY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 05 STOCKHOLM 000515 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/17/2019 
TAGS: EAID ETTC EUN MARR PREL SW
SUBJECT: A/S CARSON'S SWEDEN VISIT AND U.S.-EU TROIKA 
MEETING ON AFRICA JULY 14 
 
Classified By: CDA Robert Silverman for 
reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). 
 
1.(SBU)  Summary: Assistant Secretary for African Affairs 
Johnnie Carson represented the U.S. at the EU troika meeting 
on Africa issues held July 14 in Stockholm.  The agenda 
included the Horn of Africa (Somalia, Ethiopia and Eritrea), 
Sudan, Zimbabwe, Kenya, unconstitutional changes of 
government (Madagascar, Mauritania, Guinea, and Niger), and 
the Sahel.  In addition to the agenda items, A/S Carson 
raised the issues of piracy and drug trafficking in Africa. 
The troika meeting provided the context for a good exchange 
of views on many issues, on which the U.S. and the EU 
generally agree.  A/S Carson and Head of the Africa 
Department at the Swedish MFA Ambassador Anders Hagelberg 
declared the meeting a great success.  Hagelberg said the EU 
and the U.S. are &more like-minded than ever before,8 
adding that he looked forward to a close cooperation during 
the Swedish EU Presidency. 
 
¶2. (C)  A/S Carson and the CDA had a pull-aside on July 14 
with Swedish MFA State Secretary Frank Belfrage to discuss 
the intense public pressure on the Swedish government to get 
Eritrea to release imprisoned Swedish-Eritrean journalist 
Isaak Dawit.  Belfrage asked if the U.S. had insights on 
approaches to Eritrea.  End Summary. 
 
Overview 
-------- 
 
¶3. (U)  Head of the Swedish MFA Africa Department Ambassador 
Anders Hagelberg, chairing for the EU, opened the meeting by 
praising President Obama's July 12 speech in Accra, Ghana, 
saying he saw it as "re-shaping" U.S. Africa engagement in 
offering the platform that will open new opportunities for 
U.S.-EU cooperation on the continent.  A/S Carson explained 
that  the U.S. will focus on placing "Africa in the hands of 
Africans."  The U.S. will be a partner in four key areas: 
democracy and governance; economic challenges; public health; 
and conflict mitigation.  We also share the EU's focus on 
climate change in the Africa context and on the effects of 
the global economic crisis in Africa. 
 
Somalia 
------- 
 
¶4. (C)  Somalia was the meeting,s top priority, and the 
troika spent the majority of the morning discussing it.  A/S 
Carson led the discussion by explaining U.S. support for the 
Djibouti Process under the Intergovernmental Authority for 
Development (IGAD), Sheik Sharif and the Transitional Federal 
Government (TFG), and the African Union Mission in Somalia 
(AMISOM). He outlined Somalia,s problems, calling these 
issues a &festering sore that impacts the entire region.8 
The U.S. and the EU agreed that they need to address the 
following issues: Somali refugee flows to neighboring 
countries; spillover effects of Ethiopian and Eritrean hot 
and cold war tensions; movement of smuggled goods; piracy; 
the arrival of foreign fighters and their relation to 
Al-Shabaab and Al-Qaeda; and continued efforts to find the 
individuals responsible for the bombing of U.S. embassies in 
Africa in 1998.  A/S Carson emphasized the importance of a 
comprehensive political solution that does not simply treat 
the symptoms, but also treats the root causes of the internal 
conflict in Somalia.  He expressed deep concern for the 
refugee problem, citing figures of nearly 270,000 refugees 
currently in camps in northern Kenya and an additional 
5-6,000 refugees entering Kenya each month. 
 
¶5. (C)  Swedish Special Envoy for the Horn of Africa Marika 
Fahlen responded, pointing out that the EU is the largest 
donor to Somalia and that the EU hopes to harmonize EU-US 
policies. Fahlen expressed fear that the TFG lacks a clear 
vision and is now less able to articulate the Djibouti 
Commitment upon which its legitimacy is based.  Fahlen noted 
both U.S. and EU donations to the AMISOM and questioned 
AMISOM,s capability, asking whether or not the EU should 
increase its mandate for AMISOM without providing more 
equipment.  Additionally, Fahlen stated that the EU and the 
U.S. should work to stop the "financial middle man8 and 
interrupt the flow of equipment to Al-Shabaab.  She addressed 
the symbiotic relationship between the pirates and 
Al-Shabaab, an exchange of service for protection.  Fahlen 
also took up the role of the Somali diaspora (25,000) in 
Sweden and Somali-Swedes fighting in Somalia.  She expressed 
that perhaps the diaspora could possibly play a constructive 
role in aiding Somalia, if properly encouraged.  A/S Carson 
noted that the U.S. was also very concerned about the foreign 
fighters in Somalia, some of whom traveled there in response 
to Ethiopian engagement.  Both sides expressed concern that 
 
STOCKHOLM 00000515  002 OF 005 
 
 
Sheik Sharif might call for the return of Ethiopian troops. 
 
¶6. (C)  Jose Costa Pereira of the Council Secretariat asked 
about the idea of a special EU representative to the Horn of 
Africa.  A/S Carson emphasized  that the TFG must show that 
it is an effective government, not just a symbol.  The U.S. 
will continue to support AMISOM, but will urge the Algerians 
first to provide troop transportation.  A/S Carson agreed 
with his EU interlocutors that Eritrea acts as a regional 
spoiler in Somalia not because it loves Al-Shabaab but 
because Eritrea seeks to undermine Ethiopia.  Additionally, 
A/S Carson suggested that the U.S. and the EU work to 
energize the seven IGAD states individually coordinate 
representations and joint demarches in Nairobi; and ask Kenya 
not to serve as a port for foreign fighters and illegal 
trade. 
 
Ethiopia-Eritrea 
---------------- 
 
¶7. (C)  Both the U.S. and the EU voiced similar concerns 
about Ethiopia and Eritrea. A/S Carson said he agreed with 
the EU assessment that "political space" has narrowed in 
Ethiopia. Amb. Hagelberg described the situation as 
sensitive, but not as sensitive as it has been, stating that 
the EU &shouldn,t be too shy8 about the border dispute. 
The EU places elections at the center of the Ethiopian agenda 
and is concerned with election observation and instability 
that could result following the &wrong8 election results, 
he said.  A/S Carson stressed the importance of resolving the 
Eritrea-Ethiopia border dispute by getting Ethiopia to live 
up to its Algeria Agreement commitment, adding that the EU 
might be better positioned to achieve this.  A/S Carson, 
noting that "we're stymied," asked if EU access to dialogue 
with Ethiopia has actually produced influence.  Delegates 
admitted that the Europeans were frustrated too, and said 
that the EU would reassess its Eritrea policy during the 
Swedish Presidency. 
 
Sudan 
----- 
 
¶8. (C)  A/S Carson said the EU and the U.S. shared much the 
same position on Sudan regarding the elections, the 
north-south divide, and the situation in Darfur.  He led the 
discussion and emphasized that if the Comprehensive Peace 
Agreement (CPA) is not concluded, efforts to end the 
humanitarian crisis in Darfur will be ineffective. A/S Carson 
commented that any referendum calling for the division of 
Sudan should not necessarily have to result in an "immediate 
split" of the country.  The Council Secretariat's Pereia 
noted that the CPA ends soon and that the international 
community needs to address post 2011 political, economic, and 
security arrangements.  Ambassador Fahlen added that Darfur 
has become so politicized that it too is its own player in 
the peace process, adding that dialogue should include rebel 
groups.  Eritrea has had a role in training Justice and 
Equality Movement (JEM) rebels in Darfur, so it needs to be a 
player in the peace process as well.  A/S Carson stated that 
the U.S. was uncertain as to how important the work of the 
Mbeki Panel would be, adding that the U.S. hopes it be 
consistent with other efforts.  Amb. Hagelberg stated that 
the International Criminal Court's (ICC) indictment of Bashir 
has handicapped Europe,s relations with Sudan. 
 
Zimbabwe 
-------- 
 
¶9. (C)  Amb. Hagelberg led the discussion for the EU side, 
saying that along with Somalia, Zimbabwe would be at the top 
of the EU priority list during the Swedish Presidency.  (It 
will also feature prominently on the agenda of the October 
EU-South Africa Summit.)  The Commission's Roger Moore, 
Director of the Horn of Africa and Southern Africa, Indian 
Ocean and Pacific (ACP III), and A/S Carson exchanged views 
on meetings with Morgan Tsvangirai and his GOZ delegation 
during their recent visits to the U.S. and Europe.  Moore 
opined that relations between Tsvangirai and Mugabe's Zanu/PF 
factions seemed both "complementary and competing," a 
description with which A/S Carson agreed.  Moore said that 
Zimbabwe and the EU have agreed to produce "joint roadmaps," 
with Zimbabwe doing one related to commitments under the 
"global political agreement," and the Commission addressing 
the normalization of EU-Zimbabwe relations.  The goal would 
then be to build bridges (linkages) between the two roadmaps. 
 Moore admitted that there was probably little chance of a 
successful outcome to this endeavor, but it was all that was 
going at the moment.  The Europeans listened eagerly to A/S 
Carson's detailed recounting of the GOZ visit to both the 
White House and the State Department, and of A/S Carson's 
 
STOCKHOLM 00000515  003 OF 005 
 
 
recent meeting with Mugabe at Sirte.  (Mugabe rejected all 
approaches about "his" GPA and insisted that his "favorable 
legacy" in the history books has already been established.) 
A/S Carson also expressed concerns about Mugabe's possible 
successor(s), while noting that the leader is still healthy 
and vigorous.  The successor generation contains some "bad 
apples," but there are also some, for example Vice President 
Joyce Mujuru, who do recognize the need for change in 
Zimbabwe. 
 
Kenya 
----- 
 
¶10. (C)  A/S Carson stated that he is deeply concerned about 
the turn of events in Kenya.  The coalition is fragile and 
the process is not moving forward, he opined.  All 
delegations expressed approval of the agreement brokered by 
Kofi Annan and fear that Kenya,s fragile coalition could 
falter. A/S Carson noted the failure of the Kenyan government 
to prosecute corruption, human rights violations and 
extra-judicial killings and only "patchwork" progress on 
reform.  The EC called the situation in Kenya depressing but 
still recognized its potential in regard to its thriving 
private sector, independent media, and strong civil society. 
Hagelberg said that the U.S. and the EU share many of the 
same concerns and should keep up the pressure on the reform 
agenda. 
 
Madagascar 
---------- 
 
¶11. (C)  Both sides expressed the need for involvement 
regarding the problem of unconstitutional governments.  A/S 
Carson emphasized the need to nurture and support democracy. 
He noted that the African Union embraces democracy as a 
principle and must support and reward progress.  In regard to 
Madagascar in particular, A/S Carson expressed hope for 
further AU partnership and a need to break the "cycle of 
elite entitlement" in the country.  All, or else none of the 
current presidential candidates should have the ability run, 
and the U.S. prefers that no current government members run 
in the next election.  Carmen de la Pena , representing the 
incoming Spanish Presidency of the EU, stated that the 
international community needs to send Madagascar a common 
message and might get more strongly behind the SADC mediation 
efforts of former Mozambican President Chissano. 
 
Mauritania 
---------- 
 
¶12. (C)  All delegations acknowledged the risks associated 
with the upcoming elections.  A/S Carson emphasized that the 
international community should stay engaged after the 
elections, honor the results, and make sure that if the 
current government loses that it does not seek revenge.  De 
la Pena expressed fear of a post-election coup and called 
Mauritania a &situation waiting for a crisis.8 
 
Guinea 
------ 
 
¶13. (C)  Conversation on Guinea-Conakry was short.  A/S 
Carson raised the topics of elections and the increasing 
concern about narcotraffickers operating in the country.  The 
EU delegates commented that leadership in the country is 
isolated and difficult to influence.  They expressed fears 
that the government will not live up to promises of elections 
and noted their concerns about drug trafficking. 
 
Sahel 
----- 
 
¶14.  (C)  The EU has committed to a series of fact-finding 
missions in the region.  The first has been Mali, and in 
September it will focus on Mauritania and Niger. De la Pena 
shared her delegation's findings with the group, and 
emphasized the need for Europe not to solve the region,s 
problems but to provide help and support.  A/S Carson added 
that Mali and Algeria must work together to counter the 
terrorist threat in the region, but the international 
community should not confuse the historical, political, and 
social problems related to Tuareg insurgents with the growing 
Al-Qaeda presence in the region.  The EC's Moore stated that 
threats in the region "feed off of one another," and added 
that security forces in the region must be strengthened. 
 
U.S. Requests 
------------- 
 
¶15. (C)  A/S Carson requested that that the EU member states 
 
STOCKHOLM 00000515  004 OF 005 
 
 
consider a proposal to prosecute and imprison pirates who 
attack their respective flagged vessels.  The Council's 
Pereira explained that this issue would not fall under EU 
compentency, but is up to member states, stressing that 
piracy is not a crime under the criminal codes in these 
countries as well.  A further complication would be that in 
some Member States, captured pirates might even be able to 
apply for assylum.  Nevertheless, the EU side took note of 
A/S Carson's request. 
 
¶16. (C)  A/S Carson also requested that the EU consider 
prosecuting and imprisoning drug traffickers caught in Africa 
that are subject to Interpol, international or European 
warrants.  The EC responded that the feasibility of this 
would depend on the type of crime.  The Europeans seemed to 
think the Latin American drug trafficking problem in Africa 
has decreased and that many of the drug traffickers are now 
of local origin. 
 
Other Discussions 
----------------- 
 
¶17. (C) CDA Robert Silverman hosted a dinner for A/S Carson 
on July 13, giving him the opportunity to meet a number of 
key Swedish officials who did not attend the troika meeting. 
Dinner topics included the Sudan, Eritrea and Somalia.  Horn 
of Africa Special Envoy Marika Fahlen mentioned that an 
Al-Shabaab &spiritual8 leader and cleric recently spoke at 
a Gothenburg mosque to recruit young Somali-Swedes, which 
prompted major concerns from the Somalia diaspora in Sweden. 
The diaspora has now invited a delegation of moderate Somalis 
to speak in Sweden, Fahlen pointed out.  Director-General for 
Development Cooperation Jan Knutsson emphasized that although 
Sweden had reduced the number of countries receiving Swedish 
assistance, Africa remained a top priority, adding that four 
of the top five aid recipients of Swedish aid are in Africa. 
(Sweden has a long history of providing assistance to Africa, 
including more than 60 years of aid to Ethiopia.)  In an 
interesting aside, Fahlen opined that the U.S. might be the 
only actor that could &pressure8 Bashir not to run for 
President in Sudan.  A/S Carson,s dinner interlocutors were 
extremely enthusiastic about working closely with the U.S. 
during Sweden,s EU Presidency and praised President Obama,s 
speech in Ghana. 
 
¶18. (C)  A/S Carson also met with Swedish State Secretary for 
Foreign Affairs Frank Belfrage and Director-General for 
Political Affairs Bjorn Lyrvall on July 14, prior to the 
start of the troika meeting.  Belfrage stated that Sweden 
supports the Djibouti Process, the TFG and Sheik Sharif, 
adding that &Al-Shabaab could well take over if the TNG 
fails.8  A/S Carson noted that success will hinge on Sheik 
Sharif,s ability to mobilize his forces, fight and begin to 
act like a government.  Sheik Sharif is disadvantaged against 
Al-Shabaab by the fact that he is not a warlord, but an 
Islamic scholar with no training in conducting warfare.  A/S 
Carson stressed the U.S. is moving toward a holistic view of 
Somalia and the region that transcends a purely 
counter-terrorism perspective. 
 
¶19. (C)  At the end of the formal meeting, Belfrage pulled 
aside A/S Carson and the CDA to discuss "a sensitive matter." 
 He explained that the Swedish government is under intense 
pressure from its public (in the form of petitions and 
continuing headlines in the press) to engage Eritrea in order 
to obtain the release imprisoned Swedish-Eritrean journalist 
Isaak Dawit.  Belfrage reported that direct bilateral 
contacts with Eritrea have not worked, and an approach via 
the Foreign Minister of Qatar &backfired.8  (Eritrea,s 
President Isaias Afwerki publicly condemned Sweden for asking 
the Qataris to help release the journalist.)  Belfrage said 
another option is for Sweden to ask the Libyans for help.  A 
final option is to ask the EU to put aid to Eritrea on hold; 
he said the EU Commissioner for Development and Humanitarian 
Aid Louis Michel has warned the Eritreans, most recently at 
the AU meeting in Sirte, Libya, that aid may be reexamined as 
a result of human rights policies.  Belfrage asked if the 
U.S. had suggestions on possible approaches to Eritrea. 
 
¶20. (C)  A/S Carson replied that the USG also is attempting 
to reach out to Eritrea as part of our general approach of 
seeking diplomatic engagement with a number of regimes, 
including Iran, Syria, and Cuba.  To date, the U.S. 
approaches to Eritrea have not been fruitful, and A/S Carson 
detailed his unsuccessful attempts to obtain a visa to 
Eritrea prior to his trip the week before to Ethiopia and 
Kenya.  Secretary Clinton also has attempted to call 
President Isaias Afwerki unsuccessfully, he noted. 
Underlining USG concern with Eritrean support for al-Shabaab 
in Somalia, A/S Carson commented that our willingness to 
 
STOCKHOLM 00000515  005 OF 005 
 
 
engage with Eritrea is not an open-ended offer. 
 
¶21. (U)  This cable has been cleared by A/S Carson. 
 
 
 
SILVERMAN