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DE RUEHSM #0512 2261319
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 141319Z AUG 09
FM AMEMBASSY STOCKHOLM
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 4626
RHEBAAA/DEPT OF ENERGY WASHDC PRIORITY
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE

UNCLAS STOCKHOLM 000512 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE ENTIRE TEXT, PLEASE HANDLE ACCORDINGLY 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: SENV KGHG PREL SW
SUBJECT: CLIMATE -- SWEDISH PM'S CLIMATE ADVISOR EXPRESSES NEED FOR 
NEW INITIATIVES IN THE CLIMATE DIALOGUE 
 
¶1.  (SBU) Summary:  The comparability discussion continues to be 
important to the Europeans, and Reinfeldt's top climate advisor 
thinks that the mid-term target year needs to be moved beyond 2020. 
The Swedes sees potential in the MEF and are curious about the 
prospect of a limited MEF leaders' meeting prior to COP-15.  End 
summary. 
 
¶2.  (SBU) Embassy Stockholm ECON FSN talked with Lars-Erik Liljelund 
on August 13, in advance of Charge's meeting with Environment 
Minister Carlgren August 19. Liljelund is Prime Minister Reinfeldt's 
closest climate advisor, and has participated in all MEF meetings 
this year. 
 
¶3.  (U) Liljelund said he heard from Bonn that it wasn't going so 
well, and that G-77 countries were rather un-constructive. 
 
¶4.  (SBU) Regarding the state of the overall negotiations, Liljelund 
said it is not possible to get much more out of the system 
presently, due to developments with Japan, Canada, the recent 
set-back in Australia, etc.  He cited a large gap in positions among 
developing countries, which he said suits the G-77 countries very 
well. He noted Stern/Pershing's proposal of an Alliance among Annex 
I countries, admitting that such a proposal could be hard for Sweden 
to deal with in its Presidency capacity. 
 
¶5.  (SBU) Liljelund said that from the G20 Sherpa meeting at the end 
of July, he had understood that several G-77 countries are skeptical 
about the side-processes to the UNFCCC track, including the MEF -- 
that it risks weakening their negotiation position.  In the G-77 
group, dissatisfaction had been expressed about the G8 declaration 
agreeing to the 2 degree target. 
 
¶6.  (SBU) Liljelund said the informal EU Energy and Environment 
Council meetings in Are in July gave Environment Minister Carlgren 
the mandate to discuss conditionality, i.e. what would be needed in 
order for the EU to scale up its emissions reduction target from 20 
to 30 percent.  By a rigid interpretation, he said, there is no 
ground for the EU to scale up to 30 percent, but some EU Member 
States fear that the EU will scale up to 30.  Taking the 
science-based approach, a scaling up is necessary, Liljelund opined. 
 He said we need to discuss another year for the mid-term target -- 
it cannot remain 2020.  The base-year discussion is less of a 
problem according to Liljelund, as the G8 declaration states "1990 
or the years thereafter". 
 
¶7.  (SBU) Liljelund further said that the comparable efforts 
discussion will be very important over the next few months.  The way 
things are shaping up now, what is possible to get at COP-15 will 
not be the final agreement.  Instead, we need to identify what needs 
to be solved by Copenhagen, which political issues must be solved. 
He said he sees great potential in the MEF process, in that it is 
largely the same people who are also involved in the Convention 
negotiations. 
 
¶8.  (SBU) Liljelund also discussed the extra informal European 
Council dinner the Swedes will convene, likely on September 17 (same 
dates as MEF4), which has not yet been formally announced.  The 
dinner will mainly be about G20 preparations, including climate 
financing discussions.  He said that the U.S. plans to discuss 
financing at the G20 meeting in Pittsburgh has thrown the EU's 
discussions of financing out of sync because the EU had planned to 
deal with financing in the Environment Ministers Council, then 
ECOFIN, and then the regular European Council meetings the last days 
of October.  Therefore, the need for the extra informal dinner to 
discuss financing. 
 
¶9.  (SBU) Liljelund said that the best chance for progress ahead, in 
his mind, is the limited MEF Leaders' meeting which Obama talked 
about at L'Aquila.  If such a meeting takes place, it would most 
likely be in November.  Liljelund feels that an opportunity to solve 
some political issues at such a meeting has great potential. 
 
SILVERMAN