VZCZCXRO8680
OO RUEHAG RUEHAO RUEHAP RUEHAST RUEHAT RUEHBC RUEHBI RUEHBL RUEHBZ
RUEHCD RUEHCHI RUEHCI RUEHCN RUEHDA RUEHDBU RUEHDE RUEHDF RUEHDH
RUEHDT RUEHDU RUEHED RUEHEL RUEHFK RUEHFL RUEHGA RUEHGD RUEHGH RUEHGI
RUEHGR RUEHHA RUEHHM RUEHHO RUEHHT RUEHIHL RUEHIK RUEHJO RUEHJS RUEHKN
RUEHKR RUEHKSO RUEHKUK RUEHKW RUEHLA RUEHLH RUEHLN RUEHLZ RUEHMA
RUEHMC RUEHMJ RUEHMR RUEHMRE RUEHMT RUEHNAG RUEHNEH RUEHNG RUEHNH
RUEHNL RUEHNP RUEHNZ RUEHPA RUEHPB RUEHPD RUEHPOD RUEHPT RUEHPW RUEHQU
RUEHRD RUEHRG RUEHRN RUEHROV RUEHRS RUEHSK RUEHSL RUEHTM RUEHTRO
RUEHVC RUEHVK RUEHYG
DE RUEHC #7532/01 2332344
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 212326Z AUG 09
FM SECSTATE WASHDC
TO RUEHBUL/AMEMBASSY KABUL IMMEDIATE 2973
INFO ALL DIPLOMATIC AND CONSULAR POSTS COLLECTIVE IMMEDIATE
RUEHTRO/AMEMBASSY TRIPOLI IMMEDIATE 9238
RHEHAAA/WHITE HOUSE WASHINGTON DC IMMEDIATE
RHEHNSC/WHITE HOUSE NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL WASHINGTON DC IMMEDIATE
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHINGTON DC IMMEDIATE
RUEKJCS/JOINT STAFF WASHINGTON DC IMMEDIATE
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHINGTON DC//USD:SOLIC// IMMEDIATE
RHRMAKS/COMFIFTHFLT IMMEDIATE
RHMFIUU/COMSIXTHFLT IMMEDIATE
RHMFIUU/NGA HQ BETHESDA MD IMMEDIATE
RHMFISS/COMSOCEUR VAIHINGEN GE IMMEDIATE
RHHJJAA/JICPAC PEARL HONOLULU HI IMMEDIATE
RHHMUNA/HQ USPACOM HONOLULU HI IMMEDIATE
RHMFIUU/CDR USSOCOM MACDILL AFB FL IMMEDIATE
RHMFISS/CDR USCENTCOM MACDILL AFB IMMEDIATE
RHMFIUU/CDR USJFCOM NORFOLK VA IMMEDIATE
RHMFISS/CDR USEUCOM VAIHINGEN GE IMMEDIATE
RUEADWD/HQDA WASHINGTON DC//DAPE:PRO/DAPE-PRR-C/DAPE:MO// IMMEDIATE 0782
RUEADWD/DA WASHINGTON DC//DAMO-AOC-CAT//PCC// IMMEDIATE
RHMFIUU/CDR USSTRATCOM OFFUTT AFB NE IMMEDIATE
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC IMMEDIATE
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC//TWC// IMMEDIATE
RUEKJCS/JOINT STAFF WASHINGTON DC IMMEDIATE
RUEKJCS/JOINT STAFF WASHINGTON DC//J-1//J-3:JOD// IMMEDIATE
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC IMMEDIATE
RHMCSUU/FBI WASHINGTON DC IMMEDIATE 5528

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 STATE 087532 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: AEMR ASEC CASC KFLO MARR PINR PREL PINR
AMGT, XD, AF, KPAO, EAID, KDEM 
SUBJECT: TFAF01 AFGHAN ELECTION WATCH:  SIT REP AND 
S/SRAP MEDIA MESSAGING REPORT #5 
 
---------------------------------- 
Operations Center Situation Report 
---------------------------------- 
¶1.  (SBU) Begin Sitrep: 
KARZAI AND ABDULLAH BOTH CLAIM VICTORY 
--------------------------------------- 
(SBU)  A Karzai representative later backtracked from 
earlier claims of victory.  Abdullah's campaign will 
file complaints of irregularities and acts of 
intimidation.  Ghani, the third major candidate, 
indicated he might publicly allege election fraud. 
(TFAF01/SRAP e-mail) 
BALLOT COUNTING COMPLETED IN 30 OF 34 PROVINCES 
--------------------------------------------- -- 
(SBU)  Afghanistan's Independent Election Commission 
(IEC) must complete counting in Kabul, Baghlan, 
Nangarhar, and Herat provinces.  Commentary on voter 
turnout remains speculative pending IEC findings.  The 
IEC will not release final election results until 
September 17, after adjudication of complaints by the 
Electoral Complaints Commission. (TFAF01/Kabul telcon, 
Kabul 2459) 
 
(SBU)  Afghan Security Forces continue to provide 
security at polling centers and will support the 
movement of ballot materials to the IEC tally center in 
Kabul with International Security Assistance Force 
(ISAF) logistical support.  ISAF reported a record 
number of uncoordinated and ineffective insurgent 
attacks on election day.  (ISAF Afghan Election Summary 
VTC briefing) 
 
ASSESSMENTS BY U.S. OBSERVER MISSIONS 
------------------------------------- 
(SBU)  The International Republican Institute (IRI) 
observers said the election appeared credible, though 
lower turnout, fraud, and abuse of state resources 
brought these polls to a lower standard than previous 
Afghan elections.  (Kabul SitRep14) 
 
(SBU)  Democracy International (DI) observers in 
Kandahar City expect voter turnout to be no more than 10 
to 15 percent.  Rocket attacks in the afternoon might 
have reduced voting numbers.  They did not directly 
observe any fraud or voters being prevented from 
voting.  (Kabul SitRep 14) 
 
MEDIA FOCUS ON SECURITY, FRAUD, TURNOUT, AND VOTE COUNT 
--------------------------------------------- ---------- 
(U)  Observers hailed the election as a success, after 
voting passed off relatively peacefully amid threats of 
insurgent attacks.  Media also report allegations of 
fraud, and mixed voter turnout.  (bbc.co.uk) 
 
---------------------- 
S/SRAP Media Messaging 
---------------------- 
 
¶2.  (U) Begin Messaging: 
 
 
STATE 00087532  002 OF 004 
 
SUBJECT: TFAF01 AFGHAN ELECTION WATCH:  SIT REP AND 
S/SRAP MEDIA MESSAGING REPORT 
(U) Please find attached coordinated media messaging 
guidelines regarding the Afghan elections.  This 
messaging has been cleared for public use throughout the 
Department and interagency.  Updates will follow by 0600 
and 1600 daily for the duration of the Department's 
Afghan Election Task Force. 
 
SRAP:  SUMMARY OF UPCOMING EVENTS 
--------------------------------- 
Aug 22:  Ramadan Begins 
Aug 22-23:  Observer Mission Reports (EU Election 
Observer Mission, National Democratic Institute, FEFA); 
Press Conferences from IEC, ECC 
Aug 23:  CJCS and Ambassador Eikenberry on Sunday 
morning talk shows 
Aug 24:  IEC press conferences 
Aug 25 (NLT):  Partial Results from IEC 
Sept 3:    Preliminary Official Results 
Sept 17:  Final Certified Results 
Oct 10:   Possible Inauguration 
 
Approximate Runoff Schedule 
--------------------------- 
Oct 1:  Runoff elections 
Oct 15:  Preliminary Results 
Oct 29:  Final Results 
Nov 28:  Possible Inauguration 
SUMMARY OF ELECTION STATEMENTS 
------------------------------------ 
U.S. PRESIDENT'S STATEMENT: This was an important step 
forward in the Afghan people's effort to take control of 
their future, even as violent extremists are trying to 
stand in their way.... Over the last few days -- and 
particularly yesterday -- we've seen acts of violence 
and intimidation by the Taliban, and there may be more 
in the days to come.  We knew that the Taliban would try 
to derail this election.  Yet even in the face of this 
brutality, millions of Afghans exercised the right to 
choose their leaders and determine their own destiny. 
And as I watched the election, I was struck by their 
courage in the face of intimidation, and their dignity 
in the face of disorder.... The United States did not 
support any candidate in this election.  Our only 
interest was the result fairly, accurately reflecting 
the will of the Afghan people, and that is what we will 
continue to support as the votes are counted, and we 
wait for the official results from the Afghan 
Independent Electoral Commission and the Electoral 
Complaints Commission. Meanwhile, we will continue to 
work with our Afghan partners to strengthen Afghan 
security, governance, and opportunity. Full Statement: 
 
http://www.whitehouse.gov/the_press_office/Re marks-by- 
the-President-on-the-recent-elections-in-Afgh anistan/ 
U.S. Embassy Kabul Statement: (Cable - Kabul 2451) 
NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rassmussen: 
http://www.nato.int/cps/en/SID-B73C9A0F- 
D304FC01/natolive/opinions_57014.htm?mode=pre ssrelease 
UN Special Representative of the Secretary General Kai 
Eide: 
http://unama.unmissions.org/Default.aspx?tabi d=1761&ctl= 
Details&mid=1892&ItemID=5354 
 
UN Secretary General Ban Kai Moon: 
http://unama.unmissions.org 
 
 
STATE 00087532  003 OF 004 
 
http://www.un.org/apps/news/story.asp?NewsID= 31821&Cr=af 
ghan&Cr1 
 
White House Press Briefing: 
http://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing_room/Press Briefings/ 
 
State Department Daily Press Briefing: 
http://www.state.gov/r/pa/prs/dpb/2009/index. htm 
 
SRAP:  MESSAGING 
----------------- 
(U) In the coming days, speculation will continue 
regarding the election results, voter turnout and 
irregularities/fraud. The below messages are the basis 
for all USG commentary: 
 
(U) Q: WHAT IS YOUR OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF THE ELECTIONS? 
August 20 was a good day for the people of Afghanistan 
and a bad day for the insurgency. Afghan security 
forces, with international support, ensured violence did 
not derail these elections. Approximately 95 percent of 
polling centers (6200 of 6523) opened and it seems clear 
that a great many Afghans defied Taliban attempts to 
deny them their right to vote. 
 
The Afghan people should be commended for their courage 
in conducting this election despite the insurgent 
intimidation and logistical challenges of carrying out 
an election in Afghanistan, and we and the international 
community are proud to support them. 
 
The electoral process is entering the critical phase of 
counting and verification of results. 
 
(U) SECURITY: The fact that elections proceeded despite 
significant challenges, is a major step forward. 
Despite acts of violence and intimidation over the past 
few days, millions of Afghans exercised the right to 
choose their leaders and the future of their country. 
The Afghan Security Forces capably responded and ensured 
that insurgents were unable to disrupt this important 
day. 
 
Afghan security forces prevented a number of incidents 
during the election day in various parts of the country. 
The IEC, supported by the UN and international 
community, also rose to the challenge and ensured 
millions of Afghans who wanted to vote were able to do 
so. 
 
(U)  HAVE YOU SEEN REPORTS THAT X CAMPAIGN IS ANNOUNCING 
VICTORY? 
Only the IEC is in a position to announce official 
results. Anything else is just speculation at this 
point. We call on all parties to exert patience and 
restraint and to wait for the official announcement of 
the election results. 
 
(U) ARE THERE ANY PLANS FOR A RUN-OFF? 
The IEC will determine if a run-off is necessary and 
lead preparations for a run-off, should they become 
necessary. The IEC has assured that adequate 
preparations will be in place. 
 
(U)  HAVE YOU SEEN X REPORT FROM X OBSERVER GROUP? 
 
STATE 00087532  004 OF 004 
 
SUBJECT: TFAF01 AFGHAN ELECTION WATCH:  SIT REP AND 
S/SRAP MEDIA MESSAGING REPORT 
Several observer groups will make statements in coming 
weeks.  We are reviewing the reports as they come in. 
Observers play an important role in helping ensure a 
credible election.  We appreciate their efforts in 
challenging circumstances. 
 
It will be several days before official preliminary 
results are issued by the IEC, and we hope initial 
reports will refrain from speculation until results are 
announced. Final results - which will be certified only 
by the Independent Electoral Commission -- could take 
several weeks. We call on candidates and their 
supporters to behave responsibly during and after the 
elections. 
 
(U) DO YOU HAVE ANY REACTION TO CLAIMS OF FRAUD? 
We condemn acts of fraud; it is important that the 
outcome of these elections reflects the will of the 
Afghan people. Robust mechanisms exist for dealing with 
incidents of fraud, through the IEC and the Electoral 
Complaints Commission. The formal complaints period for 
the ECC ends September 17, when the ECC will submit 
findings to the IEC for final determination. 
 
A key way of combating fraud is the observer missions. 
The U.S. funded more than 360 observers from independent 
international NGOs and from Embassy Kabul to observe the 
process.  These U.S. funded observers were present in 29 
of Afghanistan's 34 provinces. 
 
¶3. (U) MINIMIZE CONSIDERED. 
CLINTON