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RR RUEHAST RUEHDH RUEHHM RUEHLN RUEHMA RUEHPB RUEHPOD RUEHSL RUEHTM
RUEHTRO
DE RUEHUL #1393/01 2430901
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 310901Z AUG 09
FM AMEMBASSY SEOUL
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 5523
RUEHZN/ENVIRONMENT SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY COLLECTIVE 0009
RHEBAAA/DEPT OF ENERGY WASHDC
RHEHAAA/WHITE HOUSE WASHDC

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 SEOUL 001393 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR OES/PCI AND OES/EGC 
STATE FOR EAP/K 
STATE FOR S/SECC 
STATE PASS TO EPA FOR INTERNATIONAL PROGRAMS 
WHITE HOUSE FOR OSTP AND CEQ 
DOE FOR INTERNATIONAL, NE, FE, AND EERE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: SENV ENRG PREL KGHG KS
SUBJECT: KOREA'S GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS REDUCTION SCENARIOS SPARK 
SPIRITED DEBATE 
 
¶1.  (U) This cable is sensitive but unclassified and is not/not 
intended for Internet distribution. 
 
¶2.  (SBU) Summary:  On August 4, the Korean government announced 
three "scenarios" for reducing its greenhouse gas emissions.  The 
scenarios range from an eight percent increase over the 2005 
emissions baseline to a four percent reduction.  An August 18 public 
forum on the scenarios revealed deep divisions among stakeholders 
about how fast and how far Korea should move to reduce its 
emissions.  The government hopes the debate will ultimately 
culminate in public support for its climate change and energy 
policies and expects to adopt one of the emissions reductions 
targets by year's end.  Moreover, by announcing its three emissions 
reduction scenarios, the government is demonstrating to the 
international community that it can match with concrete actions 
earlier statements about Korea playing a "bridging role" between 
developed and developing countries in climate change negotiations 
ahead of next December UNFCCC Conference in Copenhagen.  End 
summary. 
 
Government Announces Greenhouse Gas Emissions "Scenarios" 
--------------------------------- ----------------------- 
¶3.  (SBU) The Korean Presidential Committee on Green Growth and the 
Prime Minister's Office on August 4 announced three potential 
greenhouse gas mid-term reduction targets.  The three potential 
targets and the measures required to meet them are to be the subject 
of a "national consensus building process" - the government intends 
to conduct public hearings and consultations with various 
stakeholders including the business community and civil society 
groups, as well as carry out public surveys, before deciding later 
in the year which of the three target scenarios it will adopt. 
Korea's announcement is significant in that it is the first 
non-Annex 1 country under the Kyoto Protocol to publicly announce 
even a range of specific mid-term targets. 
 
¶4.  (SBU) Target Scenario One calls for holding emissions to within 
an eight percent increase over 2005 levels, which also represents a 
21 percent reduction from the "business as usual" (BAU) curve. 
Under this scenario, modest greenhouse gas emissions will be allowed 
until the "peak year" of 2020.  The target would be achieved through 
implementation of measures with short-term costs, but potential 
long-term benefits.  Under Target Scenario 2, Korea would return to 
its 2005 baseline emissions levels (a 27 percent reduction from the 
BAU curve), with a peak emissions year of 2015. The target would be 
achieved through implementation of measures similar to those under 
Target Scenario One, but with some additional moderate-cost 
measures.  Target Scenario Three is the most ambitious, calling for 
a reduction in emissions to four percent below 2005 levels with the 
peak year occurring in 2012.  This would be achieved through 
"implementation of aggressive measures with high mitigation cost." 
 
Stakeholders Voice Opposing Positions 
------------------------------------- 
¶5.  (SBU) At a public discussion organized August 18 by the Climate 
Change Center of the Korea Green Foundation (one of Korea's leading 
environmental NGOs), the NGO community expressed dissatisfaction 
that even the highest emissions reductions target did not go far 
enough, while the business community complained that the lowest 
reduction target went too far.  Members of the general public 
appeared to be evenly divided in their questions and comments.  A 
Korean Chamber of Commerce and Industry (KCCI) representative said 
it was premature to announce targets because many of the 
technologies that will contribute most to emissions reductions, such 
as carbon sequestration and storage, advancements in renewable 
energy, and hydrogen cell vehicles are still in the developmental 
stages.  Other business representatives also said the targets should 
be voluntary and not compulsory.  When the government representative 
stated that Korea should be in the forefront on the international 
scene and play a bridging role between developed and developing 
countries, industry representatives responded that Korea would gain 
nothing by moving faster than other developing countries because the 
United States and European Union were focused on China and India and 
not on small players like Korea. 
 
Industry Says Government Going Too Far Too Fast 
---------------------------------- ------------ 
¶6.  (SBU) On August 20, ESTH Officer met with Sonia Hong, Secretary 
General for the Korea Business Council for Sustainable Development 
(KBCSD).   A part of the regional Asian network of the World 
Business Council for Sustainable Development, KBCSD is a network 
grouping of 26 of Korea's largest companies affiliated with KCCI, 
and also serves as the secretariat for the Presidential Committee on 
 
SEOUL 00001393  002 OF 003 
 
 
Green Growth.  Hong echoed the sentiments voiced by industry 
representatives at the August 18 public hearing.  She said Korean 
industries have developed into truly global competitors only in very 
recent years.  In addition, Korea is just now beginning to emerge 
from the global economic downturn.  She said Korean industries need 
more time to fully modernize before undertaking costly measures to 
implement arbitrary greenhouse gas emissions targets.  She applauded 
government decisions to invest in new and renewable energy 
technologies and suggested that once these technologies are 
developed and deployed, Korean industries would be more comfortable 
with the idea of targets for reducing greenhouse gas emissions. 
 
Environmental NGOs Feel Left Out, Unempowered 
--------------------------------------------- 
¶7.  (SBU) In July, ESTH Officer gave a presentation on U.S. energy 
policies to approximately 50 NGO representatives in Busan.  In the 
discussions that followed, the NGOs were unanimous in their approval 
of President Lee's direction with regard to climate change. 
However, they were also unanimous in their opposition to several 
specific aspects of the President Lee's Low Carbon Green Growth 
initiative, announced earlier this year and which initially did not 
include mention of emissions reduction targets.  They complained 
that the "Green New Deal" (a jobs creation program for constructing 
environmental infrastructure) is more geared to helping ailing 
Korean construction companies than to protecting the environment. 
They complained that the cap-and-trade program included in the draft 
Basic Law on Climate Change (currently before the National Assembly) 
contains no details on targets or how the program would be 
implemented.  They also complained that NGOs were not consulted in 
the drafting of the Basic Law.  When ESTH Officer noted that NGOs 
are represented on the Presidential Committee for Green Growth, 
which drafted parts of the Basic Plan, the Busan NGO contingent 
replied that only pro-government NGOs were selected to participate 
on the Committee.  They also opined that despite its public 
pronouncements on low carbon and green growth, the government would 
ultimately give in to business and industry pressure. 
 
Spirited Debate 
--------------- 
¶8.  (SBU) At the Incheon City-sponsored Global Environmental Forum 
on August 12, a National Assembly member embarrassed the Vice 
Minister for Trade and Energy of the Ministry of Knowledge Economy 
in front of an international audience during the question-and-answer 
session following a panel discussion on renewable energy.  Taking 
the microphone as an audience member, the MP said Korea should aim 
for a 10 to 15 percent reduction in emissions, that the four percent 
target was "nothing," and that accepting an eight percent increase 
would be "shameful."  The Vice Minister, taken aback, replied that 
questions from the audience should relate directly to the panel 
discussion and that this was not the proper place to discuss 
domestic issues. 
 
Government Caught in the Middle 
------------------------------- 
¶9.  (SBU) In a phone conversation on August 18, Ministry of Foreign 
Affairs and Trade Director for Climate Change and Environment Kim 
Hyo-eun told ESTH Officer the government's putting forward three 
possible emissions reductions targets was intended to spur public 
debate.  She said that plan has succeeded all too well, and 
acknowledged that the government indeed has found itself caught in 
the middle between those who feel it is moving too fast and those 
who feel it is not moving fast enough to tackle climate change. 
However, she felt that the public supports President Lee's general 
approach to combating climate change, and would eventually come 
around to supporting bolder emissions targets. 
 
¶10.  (SBU) Kim said the government had another purpose in making the 
announcement:  The ROK is trying to play a constructive role in the 
international negotiations leading up to the UNFCCC Conference in 
December, she explained.  It is coordinating its positions with the 
United States and actively participating in President Obama's Major 
Economies Forum. By announcing the mid-term target scenarios, she 
said, Korea is demonstrating in concrete terms that it can take a 
leadership role in international negotiations on climate change by 
being a model for other developing nations under Kyoto to step up to 
the plate. 
 
¶11.  (SBU) Comment:  Although the emissions reduction targets under 
the three scenarios are modest, the Lee Myung-bak Administration 
appears committed to reducing greenhouse gas emissions.  Besides its 
announcement of the emissions target scenarios, it is investing 
heavily in the development of new and renewable energy technologies, 
 
SEOUL 00001393  003 OF 003 
 
 
"smart energy" systems, improved energy consumption efficiencies, as 
well as in public awareness and education.  The initiatives, 
however, have all originated as pronouncements from the 
administration.   Its participation in the August 18 NGO event and 
its own planned public hearings on the three emissions reductions 
scenarios are intended to generate more open debate and more 
participation by stakeholders with the hope of garnering the public 
support necessary to succeed.  If the ROK can commit to meaningful 
greenhouse gas emissions reductions with broad public support, it 
can truly be a model for other developing countries. 
TOKOLA