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UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 05 SEOUL 001224 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PREL PGOV MARR ECON KPAO KS US
SUBJECT: SEOUL - PRESS BULLETIN; August 04, 2009 
 
TOP HEADLINES 
------------- 
 
Chosun Ilbo 
Cable News YTN President Gu Bon-hong Offers 
Sudden Resignation 
 
JoongAng Ilbo 
ROK Companies to Supply Car Batteries for BMW and GM 
 
 
Dong-a Ilbo 
ROKG Pulls Plug on Badly Run Small and Midsized Businesses, Supports 
Blue-chip Midsized Enterprises 
 
Hankook Ilbo 
Another Clash between Police and Ssangyong Motor Labor 
 
Hankyoreh Shinmun 
Fraternal Feuding within Kumho Asiana Group Is Not Over; Fired 
Brother Takes Legal Action to Fight His Dismissal 
 
Segye Ilbo 
Rapid Increase in Foreign Direct Investment in ROK 
Boosts Economic Recovery 
 
Seoul Shinmun 
Childcare Leave Has Yet to Take Root among Civil Servants 
 
 
DOMESTIC DEVELOPMENTS 
------------------------ 
 
The ROKG is moving to tighten financial rules to freeze funds 
related to terrorism and weapons of mass destruction, which 
observers say could target North Korea. (JoongAng, Dong-a, Seoul, 
Segye) 
 
According to the Ministry of Unification, the ROKG will spend 3.57 
billion won of inter-Korean cooperation funds to finance ROK aid 
groups' humanitarian programs to the North. (All) 
 
ROK nuclear envoy Wi Sung-lac left for Hawaii yesterday to discuss 
the North Korean nuclear issue with U.S. Special Envoy for the 
Six-Party Talks Sung Kim. (Segye, MBC, VoiceofPeople) 
 
 
INTERNATIONAL NEWS 
------------------ 
 
Regarding the recent AP story that China has declined Washington's 
suggestion to discuss a North Korea contingency plan, China's Global 
Times reported that the U.S.'s proposal is a tactic to drive a wedge 
between China and North Korea, adding that the moment China begins 
discussing the plan with the U.S., Sino-North Korean relations will 
end. (Chosun) 
 
A North Korean defector who was granted refugee status by the U.S. 
this June said on July 30, "The U.S. is only pretending to accept 
North Korean defectors" and urged the USG to take more active steps. 
(Chosun) 
 
The Pentagon is seeking to speed deployment of an ultra-large 
"bunker-buster" bomb on the most advanced U.S. bomber as soon as 
July 2010, amid concerns over perceived nuclear threats from North 
Korea and Iran. (Chosun, Seoul, Segye, all TVs) 
 
 
MEDIA ANALYSIS 
------------- 
 
-North Korea 
------------ 
 
SEOUL 00001224  002 OF 005 
 
 
Right-of-center JoongAng Ilbo and conservative Dong-a Ilbo reported 
that the ROKG is moving to tighten financial rules to freeze funds 
related to terrorism and weapons of mass destruction, which 
observers say could target North Korea. 
 
All newspapers reported that the ROKG decided yesterday to resume 
humanitarian aid to the North by allocating 3.57 billion won of 
inter-Korean cooperation funds to finance ROK aid group programs. 
 
JoongAng Ilbo carried an editorial about a nuclear connection 
between North Korea and Myanmar.  It said: "North Korea is assisting 
Myanmar's nuclear development, presumably for various reasons. 
North Korea may want to obtain food in return for its nuclear 
cooperation, or may intend to provoke the U.S. by fuelling suspicion 
over nuclear proliferation.  What is most worrisome is that North 
Korea is developing additional nuclear programs indirectly through 
Myanmar.  This could pose a direct threat to us.  Also, nuclear 
development by autocratic Myanmar, which neighbors Thailand, Laos, 
China, India and Bangladesh, could jeopardize the stability of the 
entire Asian region." 
 
Regarding the recent AP story that China has declined Washington's 
suggestion to discuss a North Korea contingency plan, conservative 
Chosun Ilbo picked up a story by China's Global Times, a sister 
paper of the People's Daily.  The story said that the U.S. proposal, 
which the ROK backs, is a tactic to drive a wedge between China and 
North Korea, adding that the moment China begins discussing the plan 
with the U.S., Sino-North Korean relations will end. 
 
In a related editorial, Chosun Ilbo said: "In the event of a North 
Korea contingency, observers speculate that China is more likely to 
resolve the situation through the UN Security Council than to 
intervene in North Korea militarily...  Since North Korea is also a 
UN member state, it will not be easy for the ROK to gain priority 
status over the North Korean region just because the two Koreas 
share the same history and ethnicity.  At the UNSC, China and Russia 
have veto power, which means that they can reject any change if it 
does not suit their national interests.  In the end, the best way to 
prepare for a post-Kim Jong-il future is to strengthen our relations 
with the U.S. and China at the same time." 
 
Iran 
Conservative Segye Ilbo replayed a story by the online version of 
the U.K.'s Times, which quoted sources as saying that Iran completed 
a research program to create weaponized uranium in the summer of 
2003 and that it could feasibly make a bomb within a year after an 
order from its Supreme Leader. 
 
 
OPINIONS/EDITORIALS 
-------------------- 
 
ROK SHOULD DEVELOP ITS OWN ATTACK HELICOPTERS 
(Seoul Shinmun, August 4, page 31) 
 
There is a controversy over whether the ROK should introduce 
next-generation attack helicopters from overseas or should develop 
its own indigenous attack helicopters.  Major attack helicopters 
such as the 500MD model introduced in 1970 and the AH-IS Cobra 
deployed in 1988 will become too decrepit to be deployed for 
operations between 2015 and 2018.  Moreover, the last remaining 
battalion of 24 Apache helicopters, which plays a key role in 
deterring North Korea, allegedly will be pulled out of the ROK by 
2012, when wartime operational control (OPCON) of troops will be 
transferred to the ROK.  Therefore, the ROK should urgently make a 
decision in either direction. 
 
Confusion arose when the Defense Ministry and the Defense 
Acquisition Program Administration expressed their interest in 
introducing used Apache helicopters.  Their logic is that if the ROK 
seeks to develop its own attack helicopters, it will be hard to 
deploy them within 10 years, potentially posing a danger to national 
security.  The problem is that (used) Apache helicopters provided by 
the U.S., whose unit price is 21.6 billion dollars, are 25 years old 
 
SEOUL 00001224  003 OF 005 
 
 
and the ROK should purchase by bulk 500 kinds of discontinued parts 
that cover 30 years.  This led the ROKG to review its plan (to 
purchase the used helicopters) from the scratch. 
 
The ROK is the world's third largest importer of weapons following 
China and India.  We import more than 70% of our weapons from the 
U.S.  The ROK, which owns more than 600 helicopters, is the world's 
seventh largest possessor of helicopters but does not produce 
indigenous ones.  This is an outflow of national wealth and (an 
unnecessary) technological dependence.  Product prototypes of the 
Korean utility helicopter "Surion," which have been developed for a 
cost of 1.3 trillion won, came out last month despite (initial) 
opposition and doubt.  90% of the Surion helicopter's parts 
reportedly can be utilized to develop attack helicopters.  There is 
no reason to import used helicopters when the ROK can manufacture 
more than 200 helicopters by 2012 and can export them to overseas. 
 
 
 
WE SHOULD BE CAUTIOUS ABOUT NUCLEAR CONNECTION BETWEEN NORTH KOREA 
AND MYANMAR 
(JoongAng Ilbo, August 4, page 34) 
 
There is mounting suspicion that North Korea is helping Myanmar 
develop its nuclear programs.  In 2003, U.S media reported that 
North Korean technicians were actively working in Myanmar.  In 2006, 
suspicions were raised at a U.S. Senate hearing that North Korea and 
Myanmar were cooperating (in nuclear development).  This June, a 
U.S. Senate hearing addressed the same suspicion and last month U.S. 
Secretary of State Hillary Clinton expressed concerns over military 
cooperation between North Korea and Myanmar at the ASEAN Regional 
Forum (ARF).  An Australian newspaper reported on August 2, citing 
the evidence of defectors, that Myanmar is building a nuclear 
reactor with the help of North Korea, which is expected to be 
completed in 2014. 
 
(Suspicions over) a nuclear connection between the two countries 
have not yet been confirmed.   However, given North Korea's past 
record, there seems to be a high possibility (of a nuclear 
connection.)  It is considered a fact that North Korea has 
cooperated with Iran and Pakistan in developing nuclear and missile 
programs.  Also, it is almost an established fact that North Korea 
helped Syria build a nuclear reactor.  In particular, it has been 
confirmed that North Korea introduced uranium enrichment technology 
and some equipment to Pakistan. 
 
North Korea is assisting Myanmar's nuclear development, presumably 
for various reasons.  North Korea may want to obtain food in return 
for its nuclear cooperation, or may intend to provoke the U.S. by 
fuelling suspicion over nuclear proliferation.  What is most 
worrisome is that North Korea is developing additional nuclear 
programs indirectly through Myanmar.  Even though North Korea has 
detonated nuclear bombs in the past, the characteristics of 
plutonium require that their explosive capability should be tested 
again every 10 years.  However, North Korea reportedly cannot 
produce stable plutonium for the long term because the Yongbyon 
nuclear reactors are too old.  Therefore, North Korea may want to 
conduct these types of tests through a proxy such as Myanmar. 
Moreover, North Korea may seek to cooperate with Myanmar to build a 
uranium nuclear bomb, which is easily manufactured, does not require 
a nuclear test and can be possessed for a long time.  This could 
pose a direct threat to us.  Also, nuclear development by autocratic 
Myanmar, which neighbors Thailand, Laos, China, India and 
Bangladesh, could jeopardize the stability of the entire Asian 
region. 
 
The ROKG should pay keen attention to the moves made by the two 
countries by thoroughly exchanging information with the 
international community.  If this nuclear connection is confirmed 
true, we should put the international coordination system in place 
to immediately punish and neutralize (the two countries.)  The ROK 
should not let North Korea become a breeding ground for 
international nuclear proliferation. 
 
 
SEOUL 00001224  004 OF 005 
 
 
 
HOW CAN SEOUL FIND A HEARING OVER N. KOREA? 
(Chosun Ilbo, August 4, 2009, page 31) 
 
Senior officials of the Obama Administration asked China on several 
occasions to discuss a contingency plan in case the North Korean 
regime collapses following the death of Kim Jong-il.  But as it did 
during the Bush Administration, China refused. 
 
China's position is that such discussions would only agitate North 
Korea.  Beijing also appears to feel that there is still not enough 
trust in its relationship with Washington to discuss such sensitive 
issues.  But the mere fact that the prospect of a North Korea 
without Kim Jong-il keeps being tabled in discussions between the 
U.S. and China is extremely significant.  It means that the fate of 
Korea could again become an issue of discussion between two outside 
powers. 
 
In a front-page article on Monday, Chinaview, a sister publication 
of the People's Daily, reported that the ROK was behind the U.S. 
government's efforts to press China to form a contingency plan in 
case of Kim's death.  It claimed that this is part of an effort to 
drive a wedge between China and North Korea, adding that the chances 
of a North Korean regime collapse are slim. 
 
It may be unrealistic to expect the North Korean regime to collapse 
as a result of international sanctions or blockades.  But the 
consequences of the death of its supreme leader are extremely 
difficult to forecast even for China, especially in a country like 
North Korea where the head of state is treated as a virtual deity. 
North Korea watchers say Kim's illness is likely to recur in the 
coming years.  That mean a major storm is brewing on the Korean 
Peninsula. 
 
While it refuses to discuss the issue, it is unimaginable that China 
has not researched or prepared a contingency plan in case of Kim's 
death.  Beijing has been steadily increasing troops deployed along 
its North Korean border, which can only be seen as part of a plan in 
case of sudden changes in the North. 
 
For now, there is a strong possibility that China may block any 
attempts led by the ROK to reunify the Korean peninsula.  Moreover, 
Chinese military intervention in North Korea, using a mutual 
assistance treaty with Pyongyang as an excuse, is probably included 
among Beijing's options.  For us, this is the worst-case scenario. 
If that happens, then our only choice would be to deal with the 
situation by turning to our alliance with Washington. 
 
In the event of a North Korean contingency, observers speculate that 
China is more likely to resolve the situation through the UN 
Security Council than to intervene in North Korea militarily. 
According to foreign diplomatic sources in Beijing, China views the 
UNSC as the most viable option in case of a regime collapse in North 
Korea.  Since North Korea is also a UN member state, it will not be 
easy for the ROK to gain priority status over the North Korean 
region just because the two Koreas share the same history and 
ethnicity. 
 
At the UNSC, China and Russia have veto power, which means that they 
can reject any change if it does not suit their national interests. 
The ROK is neither a permanent nor a non-permanent member.  Japan is 
elected as a non-permanent member each time.  Out of the 15 member 
nations in the Security Council, how many would be willing to go 
against China and side with the Republic of Korea? 
 
In the end, the best way to prepare for a post-Kim Jong-il future is 
to strengthen our relations with the U.S. and China at the same 
time.  We must gather all our diplomatic capabilities and at the 
same time come up with our own contingency plan for North Korea. 
 
(This is a translation provided by the newspaper, and it is 
identical to the Korean version.) 
 
 
 
SEOUL 00001224  005 OF 005 
 
 
STEPHENS