VZCZCXYZ0012
OO RUEHWEB

DE RUEHSO #0507 2381233
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 261233Z AUG 09
FM AMCONSUL SAO PAULO
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 9531
INFO RHEHNSC/NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL WASHDC IMMEDIATE
RUEHBR/AMEMBASSY BRASILIA PRIORITY 0665
RUEHRI/AMCONSUL RIO DE JANEIRO PRIORITY 9238

UNCLAS SAO PAULO 000507 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE INR/R/MR; IIP/R/MR; WHA/PD 
 
DEPT PASS USTR 
 
USDOC 4322/MAC/OLAC/JAFEE 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: KMDR OPRC OIIP XM XR XF BR
SUBJECT: MEDIA REACTION - SOUTH AND CENTRAL ASIA:  AFGHANISTAN, 
PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION; WESTERN HEMISPHERE; GLOBAL ECONOMY: FINANCIAL 
MARKET CRISIS; CHINA AND GLOBAL ECONOMY; SAO PAULO 
 
"Afghan crossroad" 
 
Editorial in liberal Folha de S. Paulo (8-25) states:  "Without this 
positive scenario [elections in Afghanistan without fraud reports 
and contested results], it will be harder for the U.S. President to 
sell a plan that anticipates a prolonged occupation....In addition 
to the skepticism about the capacity of external forces to create a 
functional Afghan State, U.S. specialists are beginning to raise 
doubts about the final aim of the war. In Iraq, the gradual 
withdrawal (of US troops) today is accompanied by the violence that 
springs from power disputes that only Iraqis can resolve. In 
Afghanistan there is a fear that Al Qaeda bases, if eradicated, 
would return when the U.S. leaves, no matter how much time this 
takes......There is no easy option before Obama, but he hasn't even 
formulated the modest aims he promised." 
 
"The return of the militarists" 
 
Op-ed in liberal Folha de S. Paulo (8-25) by Marcos Nobre 
says".....a militarist ascendancy is under way....There is today a 
sizeable anti-American and nationalist alliance that was last seen 
in the 60's. Everything indicates that Brazil's Armed Forces were 
able to place in the heart of the political system its lasting 
conviction: the need of giving Brazil a armament power that secures 
to the country an incontestable position of military hegemony in 
South America...In the future we will have a poor and unstable Latin 
America following an unprecedented arms race, which will consume 
precious resources that should be used to fight inequalities." 
 
Considerations on the economic crisis" 
 
Op-ed in center-right O Estado de S. Paulo (8-25) by former 
Ambassador Rubens Barbosa notes: "....The perspectives for the world 
economy are not very optimistic for the "coming years. The situation 
is likely to get worse before it gets better, perhaps by the end of 
¶2010. Although there are some positive indicators of a rebound 
arising....., what is happening is only the slowing down of a fall, 
and not the return of growth. The economic crisis is far from 
ending. There is a structural problem that needs to be faced: the 
unbalance between countries with surplus - China, Germany - versus 
the ones with deficits (mainly the U.S.)...." 
WHITE