VZCZCXRO1714
OO RUEHQU
DE RUEHPU #0728/01 2251429
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 131429Z AUG 09
FM AMEMBASSY PORT AU PRINCE
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 0278
INFO RUEHZH/HAITI COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUEHBR/AMEMBASSY BRASILIA PRIORITY 2369
RUEHMN/AMEMBASSY MONTEVIDEO PRIORITY 0416
RUEHSA/AMEMBASSY PRETORIA PRIORITY 2088
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC PRIORITY
RUMIAAA/HQ USSOUTHCOM J2 MIAMI FL PRIORITY
RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK PRIORITY 1919

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 PORT AU PRINCE 000728 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR WHA/EX AND WHA/CAR, S/CRS, INL FOR KEVIN BROWN, 
HEATHER WILD, AND MEAGAN MCBRIDE 
SOUTHCOM ALSO FOR POLAD, STATE PASS AID FOR LAC/CAR, 
INR/IAA, DS/IP/WHA, WHA/EX PLEASE PASS USOAS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM ASEC HA
SUBJECT: VALIDATION OF SENATORS: POLITICAL CRISIS OR SAME 
OLD SHENANIGANS? 
 
REF: A. PORT AU PRINCE 00667 
     ¶B. PORT AU PRINCE 00706 
 
¶1. (U) SUMMARY: The Haitian Constitution of 1987 requires the 
seated Senate to validate the 11 newly elected Senators 
before they take office.  Given alleged issues of credibility 
regarding the provisional electoral council (CEP) and the 
senatorial elections (reftel), it is unlikely that the Senate 
will have a quorum for the validation session unless an 
agreement is reached between the dissenting parties and 
President Preval. END SUMMARY 
 
¶2. (U) According to Article 108 of the Constitution, newly 
elected Senators must be validated by the seated Senate 
before they can take office.  This provision requires a 
simple majority in order for the validation to take place. 
This requires 16 Senators out of the full 30 seats. Given 
there are currently only 18 Senators, a minority of 3 
dissenting Senators may prevent a session from ever taking 
place. 
 
¶3. (U) As it stands, Senators Anacasis and Heriveaux have 
stated they will not participate in the validation session. 
They claim the election process to have been illegitimate, 
given the CEP,s alleged pro-Preval bias and the exclusion of 
Fanmi Lavalas from elections.  In addition, the allegations 
of fraud in the South and Artibonite Departments made by the 
CEP,s Vice-President Rodol Pierre (reftel) has only fueled 
the plethora of grievances from losing candidates and 
political parties. 
 
¶4. (U) Several other Senators are expected to be absent at 
the validation session, itself not yet scheduled.  Several 
political parties, including Fusion and OPL, have already 
stated they will not participate at the validation session 
and have condemned President Preval,s decision to publish 
the list of elected Senators before all objections are 
resolved.  At least 6 Senators have thus far claimed that 
they will not engage in the validation process. 
 
¶5. (SBU) It remains nonetheless difficult to assess who will 
actually participate or not.  In their conversations with 
PolOff, several insiders, including Senators Clerie and 
Anacasis, remain optimistic that differences can be resolved. 
 The President of the Senate Kelly Bastien and President 
Preval are both keen to have the new Senators validated. 
Bastien recently announced that since the list of elected 
Senators has been officially presented by the President, 
there are no legal obstacles to the Senators being registered 
(all have subsequently registered).  However, a meeting he 
had called for on August 4 to discuss the validation issue 
only brought 5 Senators to the table, according to Senate 
Vice-President Andris Riche (himself OPL affiliated, and 
strongly against the validation). On the same day, Preval's 
office issued a press release stating that the CEP's decision 
is final and that there would be no investigation into the 
allegations of fraud. The CEP has also stated in a letter to 
the Organization of American States that it will not 
reconsider its position. 
 
¶6. (U) One scenario suggested by government insiders would 
have the concerned parties agreeing to validate 9 of the 11 
Senators while the 2 contested seats in the South and 
Artibonite await resolution.  Micha Gaillard, spokesperson of 
the Fusion party, indicated that this would require President 
Preval,s leadership.  While most parties understand that 
there were irregularities with the elections, he believes 
that the validation could go through if an agreement were 
reached to exclude the 2 contested seats.  Alternatively, 
rumors have it that there may be an attempt orchestrated by 
Preval to obtain the quorum by including the 11 newly elected 
Senators in the count. This remains unlikely. 
 
¶7. (SBU) COMMENT: The validation is unlikely to occur until 
President Preval agrees to respond to the allegations of 
fraud in the South and Artibonite, either directly or through 
political bartering.  The absence of a functioning Senate 
would further jeopardize the fragile political stability and 
halt the process of constitutional reform.  This is 
 
PORT AU PR 00000728  002 OF 002 
 
 
especially relevant given uncertainty over the feasibility 
and legitimacy of major parliamentary elections at the end of 
this year (for one third of Senate and entire Chamber of 
Deputies).  The possibility of unrest remains real, in the 
event Preval fails to come to an agreement with the concerned 
parties and given recent protests linked to the the minimum 
wage law (reftel).  Preval is however known to be an able 
negotiator, and a protracted political deadlock is by no 
means a certainty. END COMMENT 
TIGHE