VZCZCXRO3830
OO RUEHGA RUEHHA RUEHMT RUEHQU RUEHVC
DE RUEHOT #0658/01 2401937
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 281937Z AUG 09
FM AMEMBASSY OTTAWA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 9788
INFO RUCNCAN/ALL CANADIAN POSTS COLLECTIVE PRIORITY

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 OTTAWA 000658 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
E.0. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PINR CA
SUBJECT: GETTING IN SHAPE FOR FALL 
 
REF: 08 Ottawa 1586 
 
¶1. (SBU) Summary:  PM Stephen Harper announced new Senate 
appointments and key changes to his inner team on August 27 as the 
Conservatives prepare for the return of Parliament -- and a possible 
election -- in the fall.  The Liberal caucus will gather for a 
planning retreat at month's end.  Senior Liberals appear to be 
tempering public expectations as the party weighs when and whether 
to force an election.  End summary. 
 
MOVING IN ON THE SENATE 
----------------------- 
 
¶2. (U) Prime Minister Stephen Harper filled nine vacancies in the 
Senate on August 27, cutting into a longstanding Liberal majority in 
the 105-seat upper chamber, and boosting Conservative representation 
to 46 versus the Liberals' 53 seats and six Independents.  The 
appointments mark the second time in eight months that Harper has 
reneged on a personal and party commitment not to appoint senators 
unless they have first been elected.  Harper appointed 18 new 
senators in December 2008 (reftel), the largest number of senate 
appointments at one-time in Canadian history.  Harper has now 
appointed the most senators in any twelve-month period in Canadian 
history.  The new senators will be sworn-in when the Senate returns 
on September 15. 
 
¶3. (U) By the end of the year, three more Liberal senators and one 
Independent will reach the mandatory retirement age of 75 years.  If 
PM Harper remains in office until year's end, and if he appoints 
Conservatives to all four vacancies, the Conservatives and Liberals 
will have 50 seats apiece by January 2009, and be poised to form a 
majority in the upper house. 
 
¶4. (U) Harper reiterated his government's determination to continue 
to push for a "more democratic, accountable and effective" Senate in 
his public statement on the appointments.  However, he insisted that 
in the interim, his government must fill vacancies to carry out the 
business of government, including key anti-crime and democratic 
reform bills that he alleged some [Liberal] senators had blocked. 
He underscored that the appointees had pledged to support government 
efforts to reform the Senate and promised to serve only eight-year 
terms (although no mechanism exists to enforce this.)  Media and 
political contacts suggest the Prime Minister's Office (PMO) had 
reportedly wanted to announce the appointments earlier this week, 
but had held off out of concern that they would be accused of 
"burying" them in media coverage of the passing of U.S. Senator Ted 
Kennedy. 
 
LARGELY PARTISAN APPOINTMENTS 
----------------------------- 
 
¶5. (U) The new senators fill three vacancies in Quebec, two in 
Ontario, and one each in Manitoba, New Brunswick, Nova Scotia and 
Nunavut.  Six of the appointees are Conservative political figures: 
 
 
-- Doug Finley, a veteran Conservative strategist, national 
Conservative campaign director for the 2004, 2006 and 2008 federal 
elections, former Director of Political Operations for the 
Conservative Party, and husband of current Minister of Human 
Resources and Skills Development Diane Finley; 
 
--Carolyn Stewart-Olsen, a Harper loyalist, press secretary to PM 
Harper since 2000, and director of strategic communications in the 
Prime Minister's Office (PMO) until she stepped down in July; 
 
-- Don Plett, President of the federal Conservative Party since 
2003; 
 
-- Claude Carignan, Mayor of Saint-Eustache, Quebec since 2000, and 
a former member of the provincial Action Democratique du Quebec, who 
ran unsuccessfully for the federal Conservative Party in the 2008 
election; 
 
-- Judith Seidman, a member of the Conservative Party National 
Council, chaired Harper's leadership campaign in Quebec in 2003, and 
QCouncil, chaired Harper's leadership campaign in Quebec in 2003, and 
is an expert in health and social services; 
 
-- Dennis Patterson, former leader of the Northwest Territories; 
 
--Jacques Demers, former coach of the Montreal Canadiens hockey 
team, and a former TV sports broadcaster; 
 
--Linda Frum Sokolowski, author, journalist, and former National 
Post columnist; 
 
-- Kelvin Ogilvie, former president of Acadia University (Nova 
Scotia), and an award-winning international expert in biotechnology, 
bio-organic chemistry, and genetic engineering. 
 
SHUFFLING THE TEAM 
 
OTTAWA 00000658  002 OF 002 
 
 
------------------ 
 
¶6. (U) The Senate appointments coincided on August 27 with a shuffle 
in the senior ranks of political staff in the PMO, after the 
departure of many advisors who had been with the PM since 2001. 
Harper appointed John Williamson, a former newspaper lobbyist and 
former head of the Canadian Taxpayers Federation as his new director 
of communications.  Williamson will replace the outgoing Kory 
Teneycke in mid-September.  Media observers suggest that the 
low-profile Williamson will work closely with Dimitri Soudas, the 
PM's current press secretary, who will become the PM's chief 
spokesperson.  Jenni Byrne, a long-term Harper loyalist, will move 
to Conservative Party headquarters to replace Doug Finley as 
Director of Political Operations.  Finley will continue to direct 
the next Conservative election campaign from his new perch in the 
Senate.  Jasmine Igneski, who had been Director of Priorities at 
PMO, will succeed Byrne as Director of Issues Management.  Mark 
Cameron, an architect of Harper's political strategy since 2006, 
will be replaced by Andrew Wallace, who is currently Harper's 
advisor on finance, industry, and infrastructure.  The new team is 
charged with ensuring the government and the party are ready for an 
election that may come as early as the fall, according to several 
media and parliamentary contacts. 
 
A NARROW WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY 
------------------------------ 
 
¶7. (SBU) In the next two weeks, political parties will hold retreats 
to plan strategy for the return of the House of Commons on September 
¶14.  The Liberals will meet August 30 to September 2 in Sudbury, 
Ontario, to assess whether to use their first opportunity in late 
September or early October to table a no-confidence motion that 
could trigger an election.  In comments on August 27, the Liberals' 
national campaign co-chair David Smith appeared to temper 
expectations for an early election in the wake of summer polls that 
have shown the party has failed to gain traction on key issues. 
Smith argued that Employment Insurance (E.I.) -- the issue on which 
the Liberals had been expected to defeat the government -- was not a 
"defining issue," underscoring that "we don't have to be in a 
constant shootout at the O.K. Corral for an election every time 
Parliament meets and there's a vote of substance in the House." 
However, the Liberals did not rule out a confidence motion on 
another issue, or at a later date, although the fall window for the 
Liberals to topple the government and complete an election campaign 
before Christmas is narrow.  Liberal staffers who will work the 
campaign concede that any confidence vote would have to occur by 
late October to avoid an election spilling into the holiday season. 
Thereafter their next likely chance would not come until after the 
Winter Olympics in Vancouver in late February 2009. 
 
COMMENT 
 
¶8.  The Senate appointments, although perhaps troubling to the 
Conservative base and fodder for the media, advance the government's 
incremental reform agenda and will not harm the government's 
standings in the polls.  PMO and party personnel changes (including 
Finley's move to the Senate), reposition the PMO for a fractious 
fall session of parliament, and a potential election.  Still, tepid 
poll results for the Liberals suggest they are likely to remain 
cautious as they weigh election timing. 
BREESE