VZCZCXRO3406
RR RUEHDE RUEHROV RUEHTRO
DE RUEHNR #1826/01 2401122
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 281122Z AUG 09
FM AMEMBASSY NAIROBI
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 0822
INFO RUCNSOM/SOMALIA COLLECTIVE
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RUEKDIA/DIA WASHDC
RHMFIUU/CJTF HOA

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 NAIROBI 001826 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR AF/E 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM SO
SUBJECT: SOMALIA - DEBATE CONTINUES OVER SOMALILAND ELECTION 
 
REF: NAIROBI 1772 
 
¶1. (SBU) Summary:  As Somaliland's political crisis 
continues, major disagreements remain between the Somaliland 
government and opposition parties. Still at issue are the 
voter registration list, the possible postponement of the 
elections, currently scheduled for September 27, and the 
nature of a caretaker government should elections be 
postponed. On August 20, thousands of demonstrators from the 
two opposition parties protested peacefully in all six 
regions of the self-declared Somaliland republic, despite 
attempts by police to stop them (reftel). In an effort to 
mediate, Ethiopia dispatched a delegation to Hargeisa. 
Negotiations resulted in a &Non-Paper on the Upcoming 
Election in Somaliland,8 which was issued on August 22, and 
claimed to outline an agreement between the ruling party 
UDUB, and the two opposition parties, Kulmiye and UCID. 
However, on August 23, Kulmiye and UCID issued a strongly 
worded letter in which they rejected the Riyale 
Administration's proposals to a) postpone the election (which 
has already been delayed three times), b) extend the 
President's term, and c) retain four of the current election 
Commissioners. The leaders of the two opposition parties 
appear to have very different views on the progress made by 
the Ethiopian-led mediation. Embassy believes that premature 
international community support for the Ethiopian-led effort 
might pressure the opposition parties into accepting a 
settlement which appears at this juncture to unduly favor the 
incumbent President and his party.  End summary. 
 
Ethiopian Mediation Efforts and the "Non-Paper" 
--------------------------------------------- -- 
 
¶2. (SBU) An Ethiopian delegation led by Minister of State for 
Foreign Affairs Dr. Tekeda Alemu visited Hargeisa from August 
19 - 23, in an attempt to break the impasse between the 
Somaliland government and opposition parties. As a result of 
the Ethiopian-led efforts, a &Non-Paper on the Upcoming 
Election in Somaliland8 was issued in Hargeisa. The 
non-paper claimed to outline a number of points agreed upon 
"in principle" after extensive consultations with the 
Ethiopians, and to a lesser extent British government 
representatives in Hargeisa. The non-paper was intended to 
form the basis of an agreement and a future Memorandum of 
Understanding (MOU) between the ruling party UDUB and the two 
opposition parties, Kulmiye and UCID. The non-paper appeared 
to decidedly favor the Government's position. It proposed 
postponing the election (currently scheduled for September 
27), extending the terms of office of the President and Vice 
President, and "revisiting" rather than "revoking" the 
National Electoral Commission (NEC) decision on the voter 
registration list. In the past none of these proposals has 
been acceptable to the opposition. 
 
The Electoral Debate: "Solution" or Stalemate? 
--------------------------------------------- - 
 
¶3. (SBU) In an August 23 joint letter, both opposition 
parties rejected the Government proposals to a) postpone the 
election, b) extend the President's term, and c) retain the 
current election Commissioners. The opposition parties in the 
letter insisted that if elections were delayed beyond 
September 27, a "caretaker" government should take 
responsibility until elections could be held. Observers are 
certain that President Riyale would certainly reject this, as 
he has consistently maneuvered to remain in power. 
 
¶4. (SBU) On August 27, we learned that opposition leaders 
Ahmed Mohamed "Silanyo" (Chairman of Kulmiye) and Faisal Ali 
Warabe (Chairman of UCID), planned to issue a second joint 
letter which we expect to receive shortly.  The second letter 
was reportedly intended to clarify the current position of 
the opposition on the Ethiopian mediation and the non-paper. 
"Silanyo" and Warabe told us that the second letter would 
emphatically reject any extension of the President's and Vice 
President's terms and insist, as earlier agreed by all three 
parties, on the removal of four members of the NEC. 
 
¶5. (SBU) Although the proposed joint second letter as 
previewed by the opposition parties was  to hew to the same 
hard line, the two major opposition party leaders in a 
subsequent, August 28 conversation nevertheless appeared to 
have different views on the progress made during the 
Ethiopian mediation. "Silanyo" told us that the negotiation 
was a failure and voiced deep frustration with Ethiopian 
mediation efforts, and especially with Tekeda, who he said 
 
NAIROBI 00001826  002 OF 002 
 
 
was adamant that the President and Vice President remain in 
power in the interests of stability. Warabe, who talked with 
us just one hour earlier, appeared more optimistic. 
Confusingly in light of the proposed second letter, he told 
us that he felt the negotiations initiated by the Ethiopians 
were proceeding in a positive manner. Warabe admitted that 
the Kulmiye party remained less optimistic, but he believed 
that if an interim national unity government were formed with 
ministers from the opposition, he would be able to persuade 
"Silanyo" and his party to sign an agreement. 
 
Comment and Way Forward 
----------------------- 
 
¶6. (SBU) There are several significant concerns with the 
Ethiopian non-paper. It appears that the non-paper, at least 
in its current form, is not supported by the two Somaliland 
opposition parties. Even if a degree of buy-in were to 
emerge, which would likely require concessions on points 
vital to the opposition, the next steps are problematic, and 
could derail the mediation efforts. The Ethiopian delegation 
reportedly plans to return to Hargeisa in early September to 
develop the non-paper into a MOU. While the Ethiopian 
diplomatic endeavor was initially welcomed by all parties, we 
note that developing the degree of detail needed for an MOU 
would be a significant challenge and would inevitably raise 
controversial issues that have been glossed over in the 
non-paper. Second, we noted that the non-paper is very 
general on a number of key points, including the way forward 
for the voter registration list and the appointment of an 
unspecified "expert body" to address voter registration. We 
are concerned that the non-paper's vagueness could be 
exploited by President Riyale,s government in order to 
attain its own objectives. Finally, selecting a mutually 
agreed upon election date will likely be tricky if the 
September 27 elections are delayed. 
 
¶7. (SBU) On August 27, the Embassy delivered a letter to 
President Riyale from Assistant Secretary Carson, which 
highlighted USG concern with the NEC,s decision not to use 
the internationally-funded voter registration lists.  The 
letter also condemned the Riyale Administration's 
heavy-handed treatment of the press. Somalia Unit has 
continued to push the Somaliland government to agree to a 
long-delayed call between Somaliland President Riyale and a 
high-level Department representative. Riyale,s staff, 
however, continues to delay, citing a long-promised, 
"pending" letter from their Foreign Minister which in their 
view must be received by the USG before any conversation can 
take place. PDAS Carter conducted an interview with Horn 
Cable TV during the week of August 17 which increased 
pressure on President Riyale. 
 
¶8. (SBU) Ethiopia and other involved parties are likely 
trying to gauge the degree of international support for their 
mediation efforts. The media reported that the African 
Union's envoy arrived in Hargeisa on August 25, and planned 
to meet with representatives of all political parties.  We 
believe that premature international community support for 
the Ethiopian-led effort might pressure the opposition 
parties into accepting a settlement which appears at this 
juncture to unduly favor the incumbent President and his 
party. 
RANNEBERGER