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UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 NAIROBI 001729 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
E.O. 12958:  N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM SO
SUBJECT: SOMALIA - Somaliland Stalemate Continues as Riyale Shuffles 
Cabinet 
 
REF: Nairobi 1709 
 
------- 
Summary 
------- 
 
¶1. (SBU) On August 15, Somaliland President Riyale reshuffled his 
Cabinet to remove two outspoken opposition ministers and attempt to 
gain favor with the clan of leading opposition candidate Silanyo. 
The National Electoral Commission and President Riyale continue to 
ignore parliamentary, opposition party, and civil society demands 
that presidential elections must only be held with a voter 
registration list.  The two opposition parties have called for 
demonstrations on August 20 as the political stalemate continues. 
Stakeholders are digging in as pressure mounts from inside and 
outside Somaliland to address a way forward.  International 
community representatives in Nairobi will release a joint donor 
statement on August 18.  End Summary. 
 
--------------------------------------- 
Riyale Changes Cabinet to Gain Support: 
Calculation May Misfire 
--------------------------------------- 
 
¶2.  (SBU) On August 15, Somaliland President Riyale reshuffled his 
Cabinet, replacing the ministers of Defense and Industry who were 
both outspoken critics of the Somaliland President and appointing a 
Minister of the Presidency.  Saleban Warsame Guled replaced 
Abdullahi Ali Ibrahim as Somaliland's Minister of Defense and the 
new Minister of Industry is Ahmed Ali "Ubahle", having replaced 
Mohamed Suleiman Mohamed.  Riyale appointed Hassan Ahmed "Ma'alin," 
reportedly as a reward for his public support for Riyale's decision 
to proceed with the presidential election without the voter list. 
(Note: Ahmed was serving as acting Minister of the Presidency after 
the death of the former minister in July 2009). 
 
¶3.  (SBU) All of the incoming and outgoing ministers were from the 
same Isaak/Haber Jeclo subclan as Kulmiye opposition leader Mohamed 
Silanyo, but the newly appointed ministers are expected to take a 
softer line towards President Riyale.  Other changes include the 
dismissal of former State Minister of Water and Minerals Jama 
Abdilahi "Haibe" who was replaced by Muse Abdi and Farhan Jama who 
was appointed as State Minister of Interior.  All of our contacts 
told us these changes have added fuel to the fire of a potentially 
explosive situation.  Though the changes are designed to strengthen 
Riyale's standing and draw support away from Silanyo's Kulmiye 
party, Somaliland experts told us the President's politicization of 
his cabinet is having the opposite effect.  We have learned that in 
recent weeks, many influential supporters of Riyale's UDUB party 
have migrated to the opposition parties. 
 
¶4.  (SBU) The cabinet reshuffle comes less than six weeks before the 
scheduled presidential election on September 27, which President 
Riyale insists will happen on time.  The two opposition parties 
reportedly formalized an agreement to boycott elections without the 
voter registration list.  President Riyale and Somaliland Minister 
of Foreign Affairs Abdilahi Mohamed Duale have publicly defended the 
decision to proceed with elections using the "traditional" method 
and criticized the international community's pressure on Somaliland. 
 National Electoral Commission (NEC) Chairman Jama Mohamoud Omar 
told us that the NEC is in the process of preparing for elections on 
September 27, though it remains open to dialogue with all political 
parties. 
 
-------------------------- 
Internal Pressure Mounting 
-------------------------- 
 
¶5.  (SBU) After the August 11 parliamentary decision that declared 
the NEC's decision illegal, the Parliament intended to convene on 
August 15 to discuss next steps.  In response, President Riyale 
placed police officers in and around the Parliament building in a 
clear attempt at intimidation.  This action and the administration's 
insistence on moving forward despite Parliament's ruling has 
reportedly turned the loyalist Guurti (Parliament's upper house of 
elders) against Riyale.  Somaliland experts told us emissaries for 
Riyale have already started floating another extension of his term 
in office as a "necessity" if elections cannot take place on 
September 27.  We were told these emissaries were rejected by all 
stakeholders they approached.  Our interlocutors told us the Guurti 
would likely vote against any bid to extend Riyale's term, and many 
 
NAIROBI 00001729  002 OF 002 
 
 
are already talking about what shape a caretaker government could 
take. 
 
¶6.  (SBU) The two opposition parties have publicly announced a mass 
protest to take place on August 18.  The protest has since slipped 
to August 20 in order to allow the organizers additional time to 
coordinate efforts.  In response to the opposition party 
announcement, the Minister of Interior announced in a radio 
interview on August 16 that all public demonstrations are outlawed, 
and any protest would be a threat to security. 
 
¶7.  (SBU) We have continued our outreach to Somaliland diaspora 
communities, particularly to businessmen with significant 
investments in the region.  There will be a meeting of all 
Dubai-based Somalilanders on August 17 to address the crisis.  One 
businessman, a close associate of Riyale and member of his Gadabursi 
clan, has been particularly active in his messages to fellow clan 
leaders.  He told us that he underscored to Riyale and the 
presidency, as well as to Minister of Finance Duale (one of Riyale's 
closest advisors), the immediate need for Riyale to back down from 
his position, seek compromise with the other parties, and engage 
with the international community (especially the U.S.  The 
businessman told us he had spoken with all of the clan emirs who 
have reportedly insisted that Riyale immediately change his behavior 
or risk losing clan support.  Our contact further told us that we 
should expect to see a clear shift in Riyale's position over the 
next two to three days, as pressure from all sides will give him no 
other choice. 
 
------------------------------- 
International Community Remains 
In Lockstep on Political Crisis 
------------------------------- 
 
¶8.  (SBU) On August 17, the Nairobi-based Somaliland Democratization 
Group met to exchange information and develop a common way forward 
on the political crisis.  We agreed that the cancellation of the EU 
mission scheduled for August 12-13 prevented President Riyale from 
using its presence for his own ends. On August 16, UK Secretary of 
State for Foreign and Commonwealth Affairs David Miliband sent a 
letter to President Riyale expressing disappointment with his 
disregard for the voter registration list and terming subsequent 
developments a threat to Somaliland's peace and stability.  On 
August 18, a high-level Ethiopian delegation, to be led by Minister 
of State for Foreign Affairs Tekeda Alemu, is planning to visit 
Hargeisa to discuss the ongoing electoral problems.  At the August 
17 meeting, we confirmed that our contacts in Addis told us the 
Ethiopian administration shared the same position as the donor 
group. 
 
¶9.  (SBU) The joint donor committee agreed on language for a joint 
public statement that will be released on August 18.  The uncleared, 
draft statement reads: 
 
The Democratization Steering Committee notes with profound concern 
the deterioration of the political debate and an increasing 
dangerous polarization amongst all stakeholders in the Somaliland 
democratization process. 
 
Somaliland's strength has been in its ability to resolve disputes 
through consensus and dialogue. The current climate is a departure 
from this tradition which could undermine peace and stability. We 
encourage all Somalilanders to come together to find a common way 
forward to hold free and fair elections. 
 
With a mutually acceptable solution reached by the stakeholders, the 
donors look forward to continuing their support of Somaliland's 
democratization process. 
 
RANNEBERGER