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UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 NAIROBI 001709 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
E.O. 12958:  N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM SO
SUBJECT: SOMALIA - Somaliland Political Crisis Deepens 
 
REF: A) Nairobi 1685  B) Nairobi 1670 
 
------- 
Summary 
------- 
 
¶1.  (SBU) Since the July 27 announcement by the National Electoral 
Committee (NEC) that it will throw out the voter registration list 
and proceed with elections in a traditional manner, Somaliland's 
political crisis has deepened.  The two opposition parties Kulmiye 
and UCID announced they would boycott any election that did not use 
the voter registration list.  The ruling party UDUB has begun 
campaigning and many believe that President Riyale will try to 
proceed with a "traditional" presidential election on September 27, 
even if he is the sole contestant.  On August 11, parliament passed 
a motion declaring the NEC decision to hold elections without the 
voter registration list as illegal and outside its mandate and that 
the NEC and President Riyale must immediately reverse the decision 
or face a possible vote of no confidence and possibly impeachment. 
At the eleventh hour, the EU "postponed" its August 12 mission to 
Hargeisa citing the political tumult. We are actively working with 
key Somaliland stakeholders among the political parties, 
administration, civil society, and business community to urge Riyale 
and the NEC to reverse their decision.  All agree that Riyale must 
be forced back to the table to forge consensus on the way forward on 
elections that will likely be delayed yet again.  So far, all 
involved have peacefully opposed the NEC and President Riyale. Both 
appear to have little support on the ground.  End summary. 
 
------------------------------------------ 
Parliament Declares Move Illegal: 
Demands Immediate Reversal of NEC Decision 
------------------------------------------ 
 
¶2.  (SBU) Since the July 27 decision by the National Electoral 
Commission (NEC) to throw out the voter registration list and 
proceed with a "traditional" presidential election (including 
election day voter registration and finger ink), the political 
crisis has deepened.  President Riyale and his ruling UDUB party 
have become more entrenched. Many parliamentary representatives have 
voiced their opposition to the NEC announcement and to Riyale's 
subsequent public announcement of his intention to discard the voter 
registration list. On July 30, the parliament and Upper House held a 
joint press conference condemning this decision and the 
administration's decision to expel the lead Interpeace 
representative.  (Note:  Interpeace led the internationally funded 
voter registration project.  End Note.) 
 
¶3.  (U) The lower, elected house of parliament has since convened to 
debate these issues and propose several motions.  On August 11, 
after nearly a week of intense debate, parliament resolved (39 for, 
2 against, 1 abstained): 
 
-- The NEC decision to conduct elections without the voter 
registration list is illegal and is outside the NEC's mandate; 
 
-- The NEC and President Riyale must reverse their decision and 
abide by the electoral and voter registration laws; 
 
-- The Somaliland parliament will take "constitutional steps" (a 
vote of no confidence and possibly impeachment) should the NEC and 
president Riyale fail to implement parliament's resolution; 
 
-- The Somaliland administration must desist from any action that 
might negatively affect Somaliland's good relations with the 
international community. 
 
Pro-government MPs reportedly stayed outside the parliament building 
in an attempt to prevent a quorum. Several of our interlocutors 
point to the vote as a clear reflection of public opinion and a 
reflection of the strength of Somaliland's democratic institutions. 
 
 
--------------------- 
Civil Unrest Unlikely 
--------------------- 
 
¶4.  (SBU) In the short term, most of our contacts believe that all 
participants are interested in peacefully resolving the current 
political crisis.  We have been in touch with both opposition 
parties who remain firm in their insistence that the voter 
registration list must be used in any presidential election (ref a). 
Somaliland-based contacts told us that the public has largely 
 
NAIROBI 00001709  002 OF 003 
 
 
boycotted UDUB's election campaign events.  Opposition leaders 
seemed willing to re-establish a consensus on the way forward, if 
Riyale and UDUB agree to do the same.  Some believe that if Riyale 
decides to act unilaterally, the opposition parties will likely 
stage demonstrations.  It remains to be seen how the police and 
military will react. 
 
¶5.  (SBU) Ibrahim Musa of the Somaliland National Human Rights 
Network agreed that organized public unrest is unlikely.  However, 
Musa told us that public fear of igniting conflict emboldens Riyale, 
because he has no fear of the consequences.  Musa and others have 
told us the Somaliland public values peace above all else and their 
quest for international recognition for Somaliland causes them to 
tolerate "an undemocratic and oppressive administration." 
 
------------------------ 
International Engagement 
Remains Critical 
------------------------ 
 
¶6.  (SBU) In addition to the August 3 public statement and letter 
from the Ambassador to President Riyale (ref b), we have continued 
to express our disappointment at his decision to move forward on 
elections without the voter registration list.  The Foreign Minister 
told us the administration was "stunned" by the strong language in 
the Embassy's statement.  We have received many reports that the 
statement had a very positive impact on the ground, emboldening 
those (including the parliament) who insist that Riyale and the NEC 
reverse their decision. 
 
¶7.  (SBU) We are actively working with key members of the political 
parties, civil society, and the business community to urge Riyale to 
return to the table.  All of our contacts agree that while the 
international community must remain resolute, ultimately it will 
only be intense pressure from elders and clan leaders that can move 
Riyale.  We have continued to coordinate with the Somaliland 
Democratization Steering Committee, although after its most recent 
meeting on August 11, the group decided not to issue a public 
statement.  The donor group decided to wait until the return of an 
EU mission to Hargeisa to collectively decide on next steps. 
 
------------------------------- 
EU Cancels Its Hargeisa Mission 
------------------------------- 
 
¶8.  (SBU) Well before this political crisis arose, the EU had 
planned an August 12 - 13 fact-finding mission to Hargeisa to update 
Brussels on the election process and its approximately 10 million 
Euro investment in voter registration. Although he has not taken the 
UK's and our calls over the last several days, President Riyale 
invited the entire EU delegation to dinner at the presidency.  At 
the August 10 meeting of the international donor group, EU 
representatives made clear that theirs was a technical mission and 
that they did not plan to deliver a public message from the wider 
international community about our concerns with the political 
crisis.  We cautioned the EU delegation that if it did not deliver a 
firm message, their visit would be spun by Riyale and his 
administration as an endorsement of their position.  We made a call 
to the Swedish Special Envoy who was to lead the mission and 
expressed our concerns directly.  We understand the EC Special 
Envoy, SRSG Ould-Abdallah and the UK ambassador in Addis Ababa made 
similar calls to EU Ambassadors indicating their concern that a 
visit at this juncture would embolden Riyale. 
 
¶9.  (SBU) On the evening of August 11, the Swedish Special Envoy 
informed us that the EU trip was postponed due to the current 
political climate and security concerns.  On August 12, an EU 
representative was more specific when she told us that right now, 
the political situation in Somaliland was too tense, especially 
given the heated debate around the "impeachment of President 
Riyale."  The delegation was under the impression that Riyale was 
given 48 hours to abide by the August 11 parliamentary decision and 
the EU mission did not want to be in country in the middle of 
impeachment proceedings.   (Note: Our understanding is that while 
the parliament threatened a potential no confidence vote as the 
first step in possible impeachment proceedings, this process would 
entail a much more complicated process and does not have a 48-hour 
deadline.  End note.) 
 
-------------------------- 
Engaging with the Diaspora 
-------------------------- 
 
 
NAIROBI 00001709  003 OF 003 
 
 
¶10.  (SB) In addition to engaging with our diplomatic counterparts, 
on August 11 we made several calls to influential Somaliland 
businessmen in the Diaspora.  We re-engaged with the Somalilanders 
who had met with DAS Wycoff during his June visit to Dubai, and 
underlined the key role they could play in helping to mediate the 
crisis.  Mohamed Djirde, a key Dubai-based businessman from one of 
Somaliland's oldest and wealthiest families, expressed his deep 
concern at the political impasse and the "irreparable" damage that 
Riyale was causing the country.  Djirde and others have been in 
close touch with the Riyale's clan elders and plan a mission to 
Somaliland the week of August 16 to break the impasse.  On August 9, 
a variety of UK-based Somaliland-focused organizations concluded 
that the government must only move forward with a presidential 
election based on the voter registration list and that the political 
crisis has undermined Somaliland's chances for recognition.  The UK 
groups' recommendations were broadcast on Somaliland web sites. 
 
------------------------ 
Riyale Under Pressure: 
Forcing Some Concessions 
------------------------ 
 
¶11.  (SBU) It appears that Riyale is beginning to feel the pressure. 
 The morning of August 12, we received several calls, including from 
the Nairobi-based Somaliland representative who told us that the 
cancellation of the EU mission was a heavy blow to Riyale.  Our 
contacts told us the administration had hoped to spin the EU visit 
as support for elections without the voter registration list, and is 
now panicked.  On August 12, Foreign Minister Abdillahi Duale called 
us to ask why the EU mission had been cancelled and that he had not 
received a clear explanation.   Since August 6, Riyale's office had 
been dodging a telephone conversation between President Riyale and 
AF PDAS Carter, refusing to give a time when the Somaliland 
President would be available.  In a sudden about-face, on August 12, 
Duale offered to speak immediately with PDAS Carter and proposed a 
time on August 13 when Riyale would be available for the PDAS's 
call. 
 
¶12.  (SBU) Comment:  Consistent pressure from all sides will be 
critical in getting Riyale to move.  We will continue to engage with 
key stakeholders and with a strategic communication strategy to 
include television and radio interviews with key U.S. officials. 
 
RANNEBERGER