VZCZCXRO5169
RR RUEHDBU RUEHIK RUEHLN RUEHPOD RUEHSK RUEHSL RUEHVK RUEHYG
DE RUEHMO #2106 2301209
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 181209Z AUG 09
FM AMEMBASSY MOSCOW
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 4552
INFO RUEHXD/MOSCOW POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
RUCNCIS/CIS COLLECTIVE
RUEHZG/NATO EU COLLECTIVE

UNCLAS MOSCOW 002106 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958:  N/A 
TAGS: PREL PGOV GG RS
 
SUBJECT: RUSSIA IN DENIAL OVER GEORGIA'S CIS EXIT 
 
REF: MOSCOW 2070 
 
¶1. (SBU) Summary:  While Moscow officials speculate that Georgia 
under a new leadership might choose to reapply for CIS membership, 
analysts take Georgia's departure from that organization as an 
indication that the CIS only has "symbolic" importance, as former 
Soviet Union countries increasingly determine their individual 
"vectors" of development.  End Summary. 
 
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GOR hopes Georgia will return to the fold 
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¶2. (SBU) Despite the one-year lead time Moscow had to digest 
Georgia's departure from the Commonwealth of Independent States 
(CIS), effective today, authorities are still in denial that 
Georgia's exit is final.  While Deputy Director of the Information 
and Press Department of Ministry of Foreign Affairs Igor 
Lyakin-Frolov told Vedomosti newspaper that Georgia as a sovereign 
country had the right to make decisions about joining or leaving the 
organization, another unnamed MFA official noted that Georgia 
remained a signatory of over 70 multilateral treaties with the 
countries of the CIS.  Another MFA official even suggested to 
Kommersant that a new administration in Georgia would be free to 
reapply for CIS membership, and promised that such an application 
"would be considered." 
 
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Experts skeptical about the CIS' future 
--------------------------------------- 
 
¶3.  (SBU) Despite the GOR's sanguinity, experts see Georgia's 
withdrawal from the CIS as a sign of that organization's failure. 
Carnegie Center's Alexei Malashenko said that the CIS was an 
"incapable office," and that its leaders were well aware that the 
CIS only had symbolic value.  Analyst Chelpanova Milan stated that 
the CIS was losing relevance with each passing day, while Kommersant 
speculated that Ukraine will be the next country to depart the CIS. 
 
¶4.  (SBU) Malashenko went on to say that since Russia's war with 
Georgia last year, CIS countries were intensifying their search for 
other partners than Russia.  Moscow State University's Alexei Vlasov 
said the CIS was now undergoing a "divorce," as Soviet-era ties 
loosened and countries sought to determine their own "vectors" of 
development.  The CIS was now just a "virtual space," possibly to be 
replaced within 5-7 years by several regional "modules," variously 
under Russian, Western, and possibly others' control.  Vlasov could 
only imagine a reintegration of the CIS if there were some uniting 
economic cause; however, he saw none. 
 
¶5.  (SBU) Deputy Chairman of Duma Committee on CIS Affairs and 
Director of the Institute of CIS countries Konstantin Zatulin turned 
the tables on Georgia, arguing it had joined the CIS as a "Trojan 
horse," and together with Ukraine prevented the CIS from developing 
effectively.  Therefore, not only was Georgia's withdrawal from the 
CIS not a tragedy, but the withdrawal forestalled any discussion of 
Georgia's expulsion.  Zatulin added he was convinced that Ukraine 
would not leave the CIS. 
 
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Comment 
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¶6.  (SBU) Georgia's departure from the CIS and rumors that Ukraine 
might soon follow suit reinforce the impression that Russia's 
influence in its neighborhood is waning, as Moscow-backed regional 
organizations such as the CSTO (reftel) or CIS lose members and/or 
meaning. 
 
RUBIN