VZCZCXRO4832
OO RUEHROV RUEHTRO
DE RUEHKH #0952/01 2300413
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 180413Z AUG 09
FM AMEMBASSY KHARTOUM
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 4271
INFO RUCNIAD/IGAD COLLECTIVE
RUEHGG/UN SECURITY COUNCIL COLLECTIVE
RHMFISS/CJTF HOA

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 KHARTOUM 000952 
 
NSC FOR MGAVIN, LETIM 
DEPT PLS PASS USAID FOR AFR/SUDAN 
ADDIS ABABA ALSO FOR USAU 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM EAID AU UNSC SU
SUBJECT: NCRC "FINISHES" REFERENDUM LAW, BUT FIVE BIG ISSUES REMAIN 
 
REF: KHARTOUM 807 
 
¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY: Professor Abdulla Idris, co-chairman of the 
National Constitutional Review Commission (NCRC) told Poloff August 
11 that the NCRC has finished its work on the Referendum Law, but he 
noted that disputed provisions related to the electoral system, 
eligible voters, voting process, referendum commission, and 
post-referendum arrangements remain.  The NCP and SPLM also disagree 
on when the bill should be introduced in the National Assembly. 
Professor Idris said he hopes that the U.S. Special Envoy will take 
the lead to find middle ground with the parties on the Referendum 
Law.  END SUMMARY. 
 
¶2. (SBU) On August 11, poloff met with Professor Abdulla Idris, 
Co-chairman of the NCRC.  Idris confirmed that the NCRC has finished 
its work on the Referendum Law, but that a number of important 
issues are outstanding.  The leadership of the NCRC is unable to 
resolve these issues, he said, and so they will have to be worked 
out in discussions between the political parties. 
 
--------------------------------------------- 
Referendum Law: Five Major Issues Outstanding 
--------------------------------------------- 
 
¶3. (SBU) While reports of outstanding issues differ, five areas of 
disagreement are clear: 
 
--  Electoral System:  The NCP wants a fixed percentage of total 
eligible Southern voters that must vote to create a large enough 
quorum to legitimize the vote; the SPLM wants to require only the 
numbers of voters who choose to participate.  The SPLM has suggested 
the referendum itself be decided by simple majority (50 percent plus 
one) while the NCP insists on 75 percent. 
 
--  Eligible Voters: The parties disagree on who should be eligible 
to vote in the referendum.  SPLM contends that only Southerners 
living in the South should be allowed to vote, while the NCP wants 
the vote extended to the over 400,000 Southerners they contend live 
in the North and Southerners living abroad. 
 
--  Voting Process:  The SPLM wants to use two ballot boxes so that 
illiterate voters will find the process less confusing;  the NCP 
wants only one box.  Both methods raise issues with security and 
privacy of the vote.  Election advisors and UN election officials 
stated that their suggestions on international standards have not 
resonated with the parties. 
 
--  Referendum Commission: The SPLM wants the Referendum Commission 
to be composed of members appointed by the parties, as is the 
National Election Commission (NEC); the NCP; however, wants the 
commission to be composed of fifteen members appointed by the 
presidency. 
 
--  Post Referendum Arrangements:  The NCP wants a separate law 
covering this while the SPLM favors a separate binding agreement 
signed by both parties. In the trilateral talks the NCP retreated 
from its insistence that post referendum arrangements be included in 
the Referendum law. (Reftel). 
 
--------------------------------------------- ------ 
NCP: Hold Referendum Law Until 2011 National Assembly 
--------------------------------------------- ------ 
 
¶4. (SBU) Idris said the NCP has taken the position that the 
Referendum Law should be introduced in the new National Assembly 
that is democratically elected in the April 2010 election. 
According to Idris, NCP officials have remarked that a law so 
momentous should wait until after the election so that it can be 
considered by the country's newly elected representatives.  Idris is 
concerned that neither party is ready to make concessions on the 
outstanding issues. 
 
¶5.  (SBU) He expressed appreciation for Special Envoy (SE) Gration's 
efforts in the Trilateral talks and said he hoped that the SE would 
help the parties come to an agreement on outstanding referendum 
issues as well.  While Idris, UN Election officials and Election 
Advisors are confident that the decision must be made at the highest 
levels of government. 
 
¶6. (SBU) COMMENT:  Little attention is being paid to preparations 
for the Abyei referendum.  The NCP's failure to participate in 
meetings, and proposals that would delay even introduction of the 
legislation for the Southern Referendum until the 2011 National 
Assembly, raise doubts as to the party's commitment to the 
referendum.  In addition, there has been a pessimistic tone in the 
rhetoric of the SPLM about the referendum and increasing evidence of 
 
KHARTOUM 00000952  002 OF 002 
 
 
fractures within the party, as evidenced by SPLM General Secretary 
Pagan Amum's remarks about unilateral secession if agreement on the 
referendum were not reached.  Both parties appear locked into 
hardening positions on the critical issues of the two referenda. 
END COMMENT. 
 
WHITEHEAD