VZCZCXRO3961
OO RUEHROV RUEHTRO
DE RUEHKH #0949/01 2290752
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 170752Z AUG 09
FM AMEMBASSY KHARTOUM
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 4266
INFO RUCNIAD/IGAD COLLECTIVE
RUEHGG/UN SECURITY COUNCIL COLLECTIVE
RHMFISS/CJTF HOA

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 KHARTOUM 000949 
 
NSC FOR MGAVIN, LETIM 
DEPT PLS PASS USAID FOR AFR/SUDAN 
ADDIS ABABA ALSO FOR USAU 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PREL PGOV PTER KDEM UNSC SU
SUBJECT: REP. ELLISON FINDS CONCERN ON CPA PROGRESS, STRONG SUPPORT 
FOR SECESSION IN JUBA 
 
¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY:  During his August 7-8 visit to Juba, Rep. Keith 
Ellison's senior interlocutors in the Government of Southern Sudan 
(GOSS) and the Southern Sudan Legislative Assembly (SSLA) stressed 
the incomplete state of CPA implementation, particularly concerning 
border demarcation and preparations for elections and referenda. 
They expressed gratitude for continued U.S. support and urged 
continued engagement.  Officials also sought to draw attention to 
the South's accomplishments in the face of major obstacles, and 
confirmed that secession in 2011 is a more likely outcome than 
unity.  END SUMMARY. 
 
Kiir:  Too Early to Drop Sudan from 
State Sponsors List 
----------------------------------- 
 
¶2. (SBU) Rep. Ellison's Southern Sudanese interlocutors consistently 
expressed gratitude for American support to the South.  Minister for 
Regional Cooperation Oyai Deng Ajak expressed strong support for an 
additional round of U.S.-facilitated trilateral talks to review 
agreements made so far and to push on remaining issues. 
 
¶3. (SBU) When asked, President Salva Kiir emphasized that it was a 
U.S. decision whether to keep Sudan on the U.S. state sponsor of 
terrorism list, but he said that his personal opinion was that it 
would be premature to drop Sudan from the list.  Hamas and Hezbollah 
keep offices in Khartoum, Kiir said, and even Osama bin Laden's 
cells remain active.  He claimed reported Somali refugees currently 
arriving in Sudan are connected with Al Shabaab, a hardline Islamic 
group tht is fighting the Government of Somalia for control.  Kiir 
said that he could not provide evidence on the spot, but insisted 
that these groups are present, and proposed intelligence sharing 
between the United States and the Government of Southern Sudan. 
 
Unity Preferable, But Hopes Dashed; 
Referendum Paramount 
----------------------------------- 
 
¶4. (SBU) Kiir and Oyai agreed in separate meetings that any delay or 
abrogation of the South's referendum on self-determination would 
lead to war.  Oyai said that in such a situation, the return to war 
might not be driven by government but by "the common man or soldier 
in the street."  Kiir said that President Bashir had recently 
promised him that the referendum bill would be the first on the 
National Assembly's agenda when it reconvenes.  Oyai noted the 
parties' commitment to agree on the contents of the referendum's 
implementing statute by September 15, but noted with concern recent 
"negative comments" from NCP members. 
 
¶5. (SBU) Ellison's interlocutors said that the efforts to support a 
united, transformed Sudan had been so unsuccessful that unity was 
unlikely.  Kiir argued that the SPLM had challenged a decades-long 
trend of separatist southern thought in adopting a platform of unity 
and accepting a six-year interim period in which the people could 
"reflect on the past and the present."  But the absence of national 
development projects in Southern Sudan had caused people to lose 
hope in unity, he said.  Oyai argued that even "those few" 
Southerners who genuinely wanted a united Sudan are changing their 
minds. 
 
¶6. (SBU) Asked whether the South was ready for independence, Kiir 
rejected as unjustified reports that Southern Sudan would be a 
"pre-failed state."  He said that the South has the resources and 
ability needed to stand on its own, adding that no one had believed 
after John Garang's death that the South would make it this far. 
 
¶7.  (U) Similarly, in a session with senior representatives of the 
South Sudan Legislative Assembly, the lawmakers emphasized their 
work to establish political, economic and legal frameworks for 
development in the south.  They noted that they had passed 30 laws, 
and were currently studying ways they might reduce the region's 
dependence on oil revenues. 
 
North Accused of Continued Interference 
--------------------------------------- 
 
¶8. (SBU) Kiir said that Khartoum continues "to recruit and train 
militias," and is sending arms and forces into the south.  He cited 
the case of General Gabriel Tang's provocative return to Malakal as 
an example of northern efforts to make the South ungovernable.  In 
contrast, he argued that the South has fulfilled its security 
commitments, including withdrawing forces from Sudan's north and 
east, and integrating militias into the SPLA at great financial 
cost. 
 
¶9. (SBU) UN Deputy Resident and Humanitarian Coordinator Lise Grande 
 
KHARTOUM 00000949  002 OF 002 
 
 
noted to Ellison in a later meeting, that the SPLM could request 
through one of several CPA-created security bodies that the United 
Nations investigate such accusations.  Grande said that the SPLM has 
never done so, even when specifically made aware of this 
possibility. 
 
Border Demarcation Potential Flashpoint 
--------------------------------------- 
 
¶10. (SBU) Ellison's interlocutors consistently noted that most of 
Sudan's political parties joined them in rejecting the census 
results.  They recommended a political agreement that avoided using 
the results for power- or wealth-sharing.  Oyai specifically 
identified the 1983 census results as an alternative basis, which he 
said would ensure that the South kept at least a 30 percent weight 
in power-sharing. 
 
¶11. (SBU) Kiir, Oyai, and members of the Legislative Assembly raised 
border demarcation as a top concern and potential flashpoint.  Oyai 
said that the SPLM would handle disputes over four critical areas on 
the north-south border "responsibly."  He and Kiir both noted that 
irreconcilable disagreements might need to be resolved "in the 
Hague." 
 
Ellison on Darfur, Terrorist Designation, and Bashir 
--------------------------------------------- ------- 
 
¶12. (U) During an interview with the UN-funded Miraya FM radio, 
Ellison noted that his visit had led him to believe there had been 
improvement in conditions in Darfur, but from a terribly low 
baseline.  He argued that Sudan's designation as a state sponsor of 
terrorism should be reviewed based solely on relevant evidence. 
Ellison said he was glad that the CPA had emphasized unity, but that 
if unity could not be made to work there should be an equitable and 
orderly secession.  Ellison noted that his fleeting encounter with 
President Bashir in Khartoum took place by chance and was unplanned. 
 He noted that the United States is not party to the Rome Statute, 
but said that he would not object to deferring Bashir's arrest 
warrant if he facilitated peace implementation. 
 
¶13. (SBU) COMMENT.  Senior SPLM officials continue to discuss 
possible solutions to the census dispute that are based on a partial 
or flawed understanding of previous census results.  Post is not 
aware of any census result, for example, that reflects a 30 percent 
share for Southerners in Sudan's population.  Discussion of 
arbitration as a possible solution to intractable north-south border 
disputes continues to have wide currency among Southern officials 
despite the likely delays it would cause.  On one encouraging note, 
Minister Oyai repeatedly referenced deadlines set in the 
U.S.-brokered trilateral talks, suggesting that the new commitments 
emerging from that process have not been forgotten. 
 
WHITEHEAD