VZCZCXYZ0006
RR RUEHWEB

DE RUEHBUL #2459/01 2331147
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 211147Z AUG 09
FM AMEMBASSY KABUL
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 1001
INFO RUEHIL/AMEMBASSY ISLAMABAD 7834
RUEHNO/USMISSION USNATO 3839
RHEHAAA/NSC WASHDC
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC

UNCLAS KABUL 002459 
 
DEPT FOR AFGHAN ELECTIONS TASK FORCE 
 
SIPDIS 
SENSITIVE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM AF
 
SUBJECT: Afghan Elections Situation Report Thirteen - 1600 Local, 
August 21, 2009 
 
¶1. (U) The next sitrep will be issued at 2000 Kabul time. The Ops 
Center will close at 2100. 
 
------------ 
Atmospherics 
------------ 
 
¶2. (U) General updates 
 
In a press conference Friday afternoon, the IEC said that counting 
the votes in all provinces, except Kabul, Baghlan, Nangarhar and 
Herat has ended. 
In conversation with Ambassador Carney, at midday 21 August, IEC 
chairman Dr. Ludin agreed on the need for careful messaging, 
considering that candidates and their managers appear to be 
beginning to claim victory. He was grateful that the USG plans to 
underscore that only the IEC can give credible results and that the 
final results must await adjudication of complaints by the ECC. Dr. 
Ludin also accepted that prudent public administration practices 
argue that he should let the operational side of the IEC give press 
conferences until the final results are ready. In that context, he 
noted that chief electoral officer Dawood Najafi would give the IEC 
press conference at 1830 today and that field operations chief 
Mohamamd Hashim will take the VOA interview that Dr. Ludin had 
initially agreed to do. 
 
The Canadian Embassy today spoke with Mohammad Natiqi, Spokesman of 
the Wahadat party (supporting President Hamid Karzai) to solicit his 
views with respect to the conduct of elections, outcomes, and 
results.  He assessed yesterday's election as a success, stating 
that Wahadat was "fully satisfied" with the process.  The IEC, he 
contended, has performed well under very challenging circumstances. 
Rumored instances of fraud, intimidation and manipulation, he 
argued, were not sufficient to undermine the credibility of the 
process broadly.  Natiqi characterized elections day as an 
expression of the Afghan people's support and determination for a 
democratic political order, and a serious blow to the enemies of 
Afghanistan.  He was confident that a majority of Afghans were able 
to access and participate in the elections, conceding that security 
conditions in some areas did prevent a minority from casting their 
ballots.  Natiqi credited political parties, civil society, and 
associations for encouraging broad participation.  He acknowledged 
that women's participation was still low relative to that of male 
votes.  Natiqi indicated that Wahadat supporters had turned out in 
significant numbers in Bamiyan (RC East), Daikuni (RC South), Ghowr 
(RC West), Balkh (RC North), Nangarhar (RC East), and Kabul (RC 
Capital).  He was supremely confident that the incumbent, President 
Karzai, would emerge victorious.  To illustrate his point, he noted 
that of the approximately 1.1 million ballots reportedly counted so 
far, as many as 800,000 of them went to President Karzai (Note: the 
Canadian Embassy has not verified this figure).  He suggested that 
political parties had played a crucial and decisive role in this 
election, both in terms of mobilizing the population as well as in 
safeguarding the credibility of the process through observation (he 
noted that Wahadat had deployed as many as 29 thousand observers on 
polling day). 
The Canadian Embassy also today spoke with Mr. Fazel Hussain 
Sancharaki, the Spokesperson of the National Front (supporting Dr. 
Abdullah), to solicit his views on, and reactions to, polling day, 
as well as on next steps for the Abdullah campaign.  Sancharaki 
described polling day as a success, despite some challenges, and 
expressed Dr. Abdullah's gratitude to all those who had 
participated.  He reminded Canadian Embassy officials of the many 
concerns flagged by the Abdullah campaign with respect to 
irregularities and acts of intimidation, and indicated that they 
would be lodging formal complaints with the IEC and ECC shortly. 
These complaints will include claims of interference in the election 
by government officials, use of improper materials (ink), and 
insufficient elections equipment and materials.  He also noted that 
members of the security services had arrested Abdullah campaign 
personnel and observers in Kandahar (RC South) on polling day. 
Sancharaki flagged insecurity and insurgent activity as a 
significant barrier to participation in some areas of the country, 
but assessed that a majority of Afghans were able to access polling 
centers - the National Front estimates that between 5 and 7 million 
Afghans cast ballots.  He considered participation rates amongst 
Afghan women as "acceptable".  Sancharaki indicated that the 
Abdullah campaign and the National Front are concerned by low voter 
turn-out, however, in some of the more troubled provinces including 
Kandahar (RC South), Ghazni (RC East) and Wardak (RC East), where 
they believe only 5-10% of the electorate voted.  When asked where 
he believed Dr. Abdullah had received the most support, Sancharaki 
claimed (unverified) that Dr. Abdullah received as much as 80% of 
the vote in Ghowr (RC West), and a majority of the votes in Balkh 
(RC North), Badakshan (RC North), Sar-e Pol (RC North), Samangan (RC 
 
North), Kapisa (RC East), Paktia (RC East), Paktika (RC East) and 
Lowgar (RC East).  He expressed his confidence that Dr. Abdullah is 
leading the race for the presidency, and is likely to win election. 
On the Provincial Council elections, Sancharaki noted that they were 
completely overshadowed by the Presidential race.  Nevertheless, he 
claimed that the political parties associated with the National 
Front fielded "many" candidates, and he was hopeful that they would 
do well. 
 
 
¶3. (U) Provincial reports by region follow: 
RC South: 
-- Helmand: British Embassy reported as of 1300, no major news from 
Helmand today, but it looks like reasonable turnout in Lashkar Gah 
might have counterbalanced low turnout in the districts, so that the 
total is respectable (if not high) overall. 
 
 
RC-East: 
-- Nothing new to report. 
 
RC North: 
 
-- Nothing new to report. 
 
RC West: 
--Ghor: Ghor is back to normal today.  UNDP and IEC report that 
ballot counting went well last night.  There were only minor 
problems in one of the districts when PC candidates tried to 
interfere with the count (they were unsuccessful).  IEC expects the 
first shipment of sensitive materials to arrive in Chaghcharan 
August 22 and hope to have all the materials by August 25. 
 
 
RC Central: 
 
-- Nothing new to report. 
 
------------- 
Voter Turnout 
------------- 
 
¶4.  (U) Provincial reports by region follow: 
 
RC South: 
 
-- Lashkar Gah: PRT Lashkar Gah reports it lacks ballot count 
information from the districts to compare against Stabads' 
guesstimates of turnout, and has no information about turnout in 
Lashkar Gah.  The PRT continues to estimate 20 to 30 percent turnout 
in the districts.  For Lashkar Gah, an advisor to the governor 
estimated 50 percent turnout. 
 
RC East: 
 
-- Nothing new to report. 
 
RC North: 
 
These are rough, anecdotal estimates by UNAMA: 
-- Kunduz province - low (consistent with our observations) 
-- Badakhshan - medium to high 
-- Takhar - medium to high, but slightly lower than Badakhshan 
-- Baghlan - low to medium, lowest in Baghlan-i-Jadid where there 
were clashes with insurgents for much of the day 
German newsweekly Der Spiegel quotes Kunduz Gov. Omar as saying only 
one polling station was able to open in Chahar Dara district and 
hardly anyone voted there (this is consistent with what we've heard 
from other sources). Omar is quoted as estimating turnout for the 
province at 50%. 
 
RC West: 
 
-- Nothing new to report. 
 
RC Central: 
 
-- Nothing new to report. 
 
--------- 
Security 
--------- 
 
¶5.  (U) Provincial reports by region follow: 
 
RC South: 
 
-- Nothing new to report. 
 
RC East: 
-- Nothing new to report. 
 
RC North: 
 
-- Nothing new to report. 
 
RC West: 
 
-- Nothing new to report. 
 
RC Central: 
 
-- Nothing new to report. 
 
---------------------------- 
Voting & Counting Activities 
---------------------------- 
 
¶6. (U) As of 11:45 am local time, 3039 of 6210 centers had completed 
their counts, 48 percent of total centers that opened on election 
day.   There have been several unconfirmed reports that convoys 
carrying elections materials have come under fire in Baghdiz and 
other provinces as they move from districts to the provincial 
centers.   The tally center at IEC has not yet become functional as 
of this report. 
 
¶7. (U) Provincial reports by region follow: 
 
RC South: 
 
-- Helmand: The count is still ongoing in Gereshk, and counted 
ballots are beginning to trickle into the IEC warehouse from the 
districts.  Ballots from Sangin and Nad Ali have arrived already, 
and the MEB will fly in ballots from Khanashin and Nowzad late 
tonight.  We have no information about the status of the count in 
Lashkar Gah, and we understand that the IEC refused to provide Gov 
Mangal with info. 
 
 
RC East: 
 
-- Nuristan: As of 1300 August 21, eight of nine polling sites for 
Nurgram district have delivered their tally sheets and ballots to 
the collection point at Nurgram district center.  PEO Omar Sami is 
now at Nurgram (vice Jalalabad or Parun) and is at work.  Omar 
expects Dow Ab materials to arrive tomorrow 22 August. Six of eight 
polling sites materials at the Dow Ab district center, to set off 
for Nurgam tomorrow. 
 
-- Parwan: Today by 1300, ballots had come in to provincial IEC HQ 
in Charikar from Jabal Saraj, Sayed Khel, Salang, Charikar, and 
Bagram districts, while ballots from Kohe Safi arrived last night. 
A single convoy with ANP escort is currently en route from the four 
Western Parwan districts, due in to Charikar this evening.  IEC, 
with ANP escort, departed Charikar at 1500 with tally sheets from 
the tranche of ballots already in Charikar.  According to the IEC, 
ANP has been very cooperative in fulfilling all of its security 
escort duties. PEO Taj Ali told PRT that counting continues in 
district centers throughout Paktika.  He shared general numbers of 
ballots cast in five of the province's 23 districts (19 official, 4 
unofficial).  Though this limited sample does not include the 
population centers of Sharana, Orgun, or Bermel, whose counts are 
still ongoing, the numbers connote strong participation from the 
province's approximately 600,000 registered voters. 
 
Khair Kot:    50,000 votes cast 
Sarobi:       30,000 
Joni Khel:    28,000 
Waza Khwa:    24,000 
Sar Hawza:    17,000 
 
RC North: 
 
-- Balkh: Vote counting has finished in Jowzjan and Samangan 
provinces.  Tally sheets are enroute to the provincial IEC offices. 
As of 11:00 this morning, votes were still being counted at 27 
voting centers in Balkh province and at 16 voting centers in 
Sar-e-pul province.  An advisor to the regional IEC said that eight 
voting centers in Sar-e-pul and eleven in Faryab have not reported 
their results due to communications difficulties.  By Monday, the 
 
IEC advisor expects all tally sheets will have arrived in Mazar. 
 
RC West: 
 
-- Nothing new to report. 
 
RC Central: 
 
-- Nothing new to report. 
 
 
----- 
Fraud 
----- 
 
¶8.  (SBU) Provincial reports by region follow: 
 
RC South: 
 
-- Helmand: The Lashkar Gah count is still ongoing, and given the 
procedural smoothness yesterday we are uncertain  what is causing 
the delay.  There was one report at midday of bundled ballots 
arriving by car at a polling station in the middle of counting and 
being added to the tally; we think these votes were for Abdullah. 
 
RC East: 
 
-- Nothing new to report. 
 
RC North: 
-- Nothing new to report. 
 
RC West: 
 
-- Nothing new to report. 
 
RC Central: 
 
-- Nothing new to report. 
 
-------------- 
Public Affairs 
-------------- 
¶9.  (U) NEW MESSAGING: 
¶10.  (U) AFGHAN MEDIA HIGHLIGHTS: 
 
AFGHAN MEDIA HIGHLIGHTS 
--The lead story in the Afghan media was the continuous coverage of 
the Afghan elections. 
--In a press conference Friday afternoon, the IEC said that counting 
the votes in all provinces, except Kabul, Baghlan, Nengarhar and 
Herat has ended.  The IEC said that preliminary results will be 
announced August 25. The IEC did not give any timetable for the 
final results.  However, it said that final results will be 
announced after thoroughly investigating all complaints about vote 
rigging in some provinces.   It added that if vote rigging in an 
area is confirmed, all ballot boxes in that area would be 
quarantined. 
--Both President Karzai and Abdullah Abdullah, his main rival, 
claimed victory.  President Karzai's campaign chief Din Mohammm said 
that preliminary results indicate that President Karzai was the 
clear winner and that there would be no need to go to the second 
round. 
--In a Tolo interview today, President Karzai's media 
representative, Waheed Omar, backtracked from previous statements 
made by President Karzai's campaign manager Din Mohammad declaring a 
victory by President Karzai. He noted while the assessments by their 
polling agents showed them to be in the lead and gave them 
confidence that they would emerge victorious, only the IEC could 
declare the winner of the elections. He also noted  that predictions 
that a second round would not take place was in their interest and 
acknowledged that this decision could only be made after the  IEC 
announcement of the results. When pressed by the Tolo reporter about 
 broad coverage of President Karzai's claims of victory, Omar 
reiterated that Din Mohammad's comments to Reuters  been picked up 
and run by others including the BBC. He claimed that the campaign 
only made comments about being in the lead to Reuters. 
-- The IEC called on all candidates to exercise cautious and 
restraint. It added that it was too early for any candidate to claim 
victory. 
--The IEC rejected claims of victory by President Karzai in Xinhua 
press and stressed that any predictions about any result announced 
by any person or organization was inaccurate. 
--Fazil Sancharak, spokesperson of Abdullah Abdullah, said that 
results from various provinces indicate that Abdullah has won 61 
 
percent of the vote.   He also added that there was vote rigging in 
at least three provinces. 
 
--Pajhwok news agency quoted the Afghanistan Supreme Court as saying 
that Saturday August 22, will be the first day of the holy month of 
Ramadan. 
EIKENBERRY