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DE RUEHBUL #2452/01 2321909
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R 201909Z AUG 09
FM AMEMBASSY KABUL
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INFO RUEHIL/AMEMBASSY ISLAMABAD 7811
RUEHNO/USMISSION USNATO 3816
RHEHAAA/NSC WASHDC
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC

UNCLAS KABUL 002452 
 
DEPT FOR AFGHAN ELECTIONS TASK FORCE 
 
SIPDIS 
SENSITIVE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM AF
 
SUBJECT: Afghan Elections Situation Report Nine - 12:00AM Local, 
August 21, 2009 
 
¶1. (SBU) The next sitrep is scheduled for 0400 local on August 21. 
 
 
------------ 
Atmospherics 
------------ 
 
¶2. (U) Canadian Embassy representatives had a brief discussion this 
evening with Seddiq Seddiqqi, Deputy Spokesperson for the Karzai 
Campaign, to solicit his views and perspectives on today's 
elections.  Seddiqqi stated that the polling process had gone very 
smoothly, and indicated that the Karzai campaign is anxiously 
looking forward to the results.  Apart from a report of candidate 
agent problems in Balkh (see paragraph 11), Seddiqi reported that 
the campaign did not encounter any major problems - the security 
disruptions were not as severe as expected, and he felt that most 
Karzai supporters had been able to access the polls.  Seddiqqi 
praised the work of the IEC, who he described as "well-trained", 
"professional", and "impartial".  He believed that Karzai had done 
well in "almost all provinces", and re-iterated his belief that 
Karzai would win the race in the first round.  He acknowledged Dr. 
Abdullah as a strong competitor, and so to Ashraf Ghani (albeit to a 
lesser extent), but remained confident that Karzai would emerge 
victorious. 
 
¶3.  Canadian Embassy representatives also had a late afternoon 
discussion with Omar Ansari, the campaign manager for Ashraf Ghani, 
to solicit his views on the outcomes of polling day.  Ansari noted 
the security challenges across the country throughout the day, and 
cited specific threats made against the Ghani campaign by 
insurgents, government security personnel, and local warlord. 
Ansari singled out Kandahar (RC South) and Kunduz (RC North) as 
having been particularly violent, and asserted that the level of 
violence across the country, compounded by intimidation and threats, 
had prevented many Ghani supporters from participating in the 
elections.  He went on contend that in Kandahar Province locals had 
engaged in ballot stuffing.  He argued that the violence in Kandahar 
was actually the result of a plot hatched by Karzai to prevent Ghani 
supporters from voting.  Ghani, he insisted, is very much in the 
running.  He accused Karzai of misusing state resources, and 
employing state officials to buoy his campaign.  Ansari suggested 
that Ghani likely did best in Uruzgan (RC South), Farah (RC South), 
Kandahar (RC South), Paktia (RC East), Kabul (RC Capital), Kunar (RC 
East), Balkh (RC North), and Sar-e Pul (RC North), whereas he likely 
showed poorly in Baghdis (RC West) and Ghor (RC West). 
¶4.  (U) Provincial reports by region follow: 
 
RC-South: 
 
-- Zabul reports that streets and bazaars appeared to be quiet 
throughout the day.  Voters, while limited in numbers, were 
enthusiastic, waving and showing their ink stained fingers to 
observers and passing convoys. 
 
RC-East: 
 
-- Khost reports that the mood on the street of downtown Khost was 
almost celebratory, with people expressing strong support for the 
measures taken by the ANSF to secure the election. 
 
RC-West: 
 
-- A PRT observer in Badghis reported that an Abdullah campaign 
agent stated that the process in all districts of Badghis but Murgab 
was fair and transparent. 
 
------------- 
Voter Turnout 
------------- 
 
¶5.  FEFA reported a preliminary impression that indicated a lower 
turnout compared to the 2004 Presidential election, in particular 
female turnout.  FEFA also noted a lack of female electoral staff at 
"many" polling centers. 
 
¶6.  (U) Provincial reports by region follow: 
 
RC-South: 
 
-- Zabul reports that voter turnout throughout the province is 
reportedly low, although polls were kept open well past 1600 in some 
locations to allow for voters in line to vote.  Word of the poll 
closing extension did not reach the IEC and ANSF until many polls 
had already closed.  In one of two female polling locations in 
Qalat, women were observed voting, but in small numbers.  Anecdotal 
 
reports suggest overwhelming support for President Karzai. 
 
-- Despite attacks, voter turnout in Uruzgan remained steady 
throughout the morning and a mobile polling stationed was 
established to reach those police and army officials who could not 
leave their assigned locations. 
 
RC-East: 
 
-- Nuristan reports estimates that some 4,000 ballots were cast 
today in the district of Barg-e Matal, equating to a voter turnout 
of 42 percent in an area that still faces significant pressure from 
anti-Afghan forces.  The now-confirmed attack on one Barg-e Matal 
polling site today only closed the polls for an hour. 
 
-- In Parwan province, by all accounts (including the IEC and Task 
Force Gladius patrol elements spread throughout the province), voter 
turnout was heavy.  Lines were reported at polling centers 
throughout the morning province-wide.  PRT officer accompanied 
Gladius headquarters commanding officer around Bagram district and 
to Charikar.  Traffic on main routes and in bazaars was extremely 
light, but we observed numerous people with inked fingers outside. 
All polling centers remained open as of 1500. 
 
-- Khost reports widely divergent turnout across the province, with 
indications that insecure districts such as Sebari, Musa Khel, and 
Qalandar had very low turnout, although Spera may be a surprise 
outlier in this regard.  However, in areas such as Matun, Mandozai, 
Tani, and Gorbuz, turnout appears to be quite high.  In some of 
these areas, Khost reports that female turnout was 30-40% of that of 
men at some polling centers. 
 
 
RC-West: 
 
-- Herat reports that minimal if any elections violations were 
observed. The tremendous number of different party observers making 
sure that the process was honest and transparent.  The turn-out of 
women everywhere was apparent and a great tribute to the women of 
Afghanistan's courage and tenacity. 
 
--------- 
Security 
--------- 
 
¶7.  (U) Provincial reports by region follow: 
 
RC-East: 
 
-- Zabul reports that sporadic and ineffective indirect fire attacks 
were reported mainly in the morning in Atghar, Day Chopan, Nawbahar, 
Qalat and Shajoy districts.  In all districts polling centers and 
stations remained open, with the exception of one center in Nawbahar 
which closed temporarily but reopened within the hour.  Several IEDs 
were reported throughout the province.  Overall, the enemy's 
persistent and effective intimidation and threats apparently kept 
voter turnout low.  While the voting centers may have been secured, 
the prospect of returning to a Taliban controlled village with an 
ink stained finger may have been enough to discourage many voters. 
 
-- Gardez reports that security was good at polling stations all 
day, with the notable exception of the Chamkani polling station 
where RPGs were fired at the polling station, but missed and killed 
two children.  The insurgents firing the RPGs were not apprehended. 
In spite of the incident, residents continued to use their own 
voting cards and there did not appear to be any active intimidation 
during the late polling hours. 
 
In Zormat District, Gardez insurgents fired five RPGs at a polling 
center after it had closed, hitting the center but there with no 
casualties.  Eight other missiles hit the Kulal Gu ANSF-ISAF joint 
base nearby, once again with no casualties.  During the day roads 
and alternatives routes were blocked by Taliban.  The district 
governor responded by telling residents which alternative routes to 
take to reach the polls.  ANA, ANP, ISAF and arbakai provided 
security throughout the day and remained at the polling center. 
There were no observers at the center due to poor security. 
 
-- In Parwan there were three attempted rocket attacks reported 
around the province.  Two in the vicinity of BAF (on in the morning, 
one in the early afternoon) did not result in any polling center 
closures.  One rocket in Shinwari district did temporarily close a 
polling center in the morning, but the center was reopened shortly 
thereafter. We also visited the OCC-P in Charikar mid-day, where the 
Parwan COP, ANA 5/1 Kandak Commander, OCC-P Commander and other 
 
senior officials were all calm and confident. 
 
-- Khost reports that while incidents of indirect and direct fire 
continued throughout the day, such activity peaked by noon, and 
tapered off throughout the afternoon. 
 
RC-South: 
 
-- In Tarin Kowt, Uruzgan the situation has become tenser in the 
capitol city and elsewhere in the province as there have been at 
least three separate rocket attacks, the most recent fell near a 
police check-point, close to the governor's compound.  Separately, 
the governor reported and a UN contact confirmed that the polling 
station in Hussinea, within Khas Uruzgan district, is surrounded by 
Taliban and attacking the station.  Election workers are attempting 
to secure the sensitive election material and flee the location. 
 
RC-West: 
 
-- Herat reports that were no incidents in the any districts.  ANP 
was present without being overbearing at all sites, with polling 
center sites managed by capable and articulate managers. 
 
---------------------------- 
Voting & Counting Activities 
---------------------------- 
 
¶8.  (U) FEFA, the domestic observation organization, issued an 
initial press release in the late afternoon based on the observation 
of its 7,368 observers - including 2,642 women.  FEFA observers 
reported many polling centers opened late due to last minute 
administrative and technical issues and security concerns or closed 
temporarily for security incidents. 
 
¶9.  (U) Provincial reports by region follow: 
 
RC-South: 
 
-- Zabul reports that all polling centers and stations opened with 
only one center opening approximately an hour late, in Shamulzai 
Province about 3km from the Pakistan border.  No reports were 
received of any polling centers improperly or inadequately staffed 
or supplied.  The only logistical/operational difficulty appeared to 
be that the supplied hole punchers consistently broke.  The IEC and 
ANSF did a professional and thorough job in the preparation and 
execution phases of the election.  This is a credit to IEC and ANSF 
leadership and the meticulous and detailed planning that has 
occurred over the last 3-4 months in a province where 8 of 11 
districts are heavily influenced/controlled by the Taliban. 
 
RC-East: 
 
-- In Parwan the PEO reported to the OCC-P late last night that six 
polling boxes in remote Kohe Safi were broken and unusable.  He 
appealed to coalition forces to fly replacement boxes there. 
Although coalition forces were unable to assist, the ANA provided 
its own air assets to successfully deliver replacement boxes this 
morning. 
 
RC-West: 
 
-- Herat reports that the only common complaint was that the hole 
punchers used to indicate that voting was completed did not work 
very well. 
------ 
Fraud 
------ 
 
¶9. (U) FEFA reported observing malfunctioning hole punches - used to 
mark voter registration cards - in 15 provinces.  The IEC responded 
by instructing polling staff to mark voter's registration cards with 
scissors.  FEFA also reported interference by IEC staff with the 
voting process, but did not provide any specifics as to the type of 
interference or the extent to which it was witnessed. 
 
¶10.  Ghani's campaign manager cited examples of alleged fraud to a 
Canadian embassy representative that included: 
 
- In the Qala-e-Ghazian neighborhood of Mazar-e Sharif, Balkh local 
strongman MP Eshaaq Rahguzar threatened Ghani supporters, and 
demanded they support Dr. Abdullah; 
 
- In some polling stations, IEC staff (reporting a shortage of 
ballots) directed people to ink their fingers and leave their 
registration cards behind; on the promise that the polling staff 
 
would mark their ballots once replacements arrived; 
 
- In the Palasposh region of Balkh he indicated that a local police 
commander named Nader, together with his soldiers, was ordering 
people by a polling station to vote for Abdullah; 
 
- In Keshim district, Badakhshan, the district administrator was 
reported to have provided transportation to voters to the polls on 
condition that they vote for Karzai; 
 
- In the Ahmad Shah Meena region of Kabul province, members of the 
Ahmadzai tribe (supposedly loyal to Ghani), resisted ANP efforts to 
close polling stations in their area; 
 
- in Sar-e Pul, IEC official Segbhatullah Eshaaqzai, was reportedly 
encouraging people to vote for Abdullah, and was arrested and 
detained by the ANP. 
 
¶11.  (U) Provincial reports by region follow: 
 
RC-North: 
 
-- The deputy spokesperson for the Karzai campaigned noted to a 
Canadian Embassy representative that while overall voter turnout was 
very good, Karzai supporters faced minor problems throughout the 
country - Karzai candidate agents have reported instances of voter 
intimidation (which they attribute to the Abdullah camp), occurring 
mainly in Kabul and Mazar-e Sharif.  The Karzai campaign claims to 
have submitted formal complaints to the ECC, with respect to these 
incidents. 
 
RC-East: 
 
-- Khost reports a credible account of fraud at a polling center in 
Matun, where a provincial council candidate and presidential 
candidate representatives were actively campaigning in contravention 
of the election law.  Additionally, voters at this same station 
reportedly cast multiple ballots and were not prevented from doing 
so by polling station staff. 
 
 
-------------- 
Public Affairs 
-------------- 
 
¶12.  (U) PUBLIC AFFAIRS UPDATES: 
AFGHAN MEDIA HIGHLIGHTS 
 
Other Top Stories: 
 
-The leading story in the Afghan media was the coverage of the press 
conference by President Karzai on the successful conclusion of the 
election day.  Karzai thanked IEC, ANA, ANP, and NDS for helping to 
make the Afghan elections happen across Afghanistan.  Karzai also 
thanked Afghan people who voted despite intimidation by the Taliban, 
IED explosions, suicide bombing and armed attacks across 
Afghanistan.   He said according the reports he got from MOI, 73 
incident occurred in 15 provinces of Afghanistan causing civilians 
and ANSF casualties. 
 
-The second leading story in the Afghan media was the coverage of 
the joint press conference by chairman of the Independent Election 
Commission Azzizullah Luddin, Afghan Defense Minister Rahim Wardak, 
Afghan Interior Minister Hanif Atmar and the National Director of 
Security Amrullah Saleh in which they announced conclusion of the 
election day successfully. 
 
-RTA reported that Dr. Abdullah said he will submit his complaints 
about the voting process to the Electoral Complaints Commission. 
The report also mentioned that Abdullah seemed to be pleased with 
the results of the elections so far. 
 
-Shamshad TV reported that Ambassador Eikenberry visited a number of 
polling centers in Kabul city today.  During the visit, Eikenberry 
stated that people were voting freely in the elections and that 
elections were being held in a transparent manner. 
 
-Afghan media widely reported that voting process extended by one 
hour across Afghanistan to allow more people to vote and will 
officially concludes at 05:00PM today. 
 
-VOA reported on comments by the State Department spokesman in which 
he said that the Taliban campaign to disrupt Afghan elections will 
fail. 
 
-Ariana TV reported that higher number of women than men voted in 
Zabul province.  The reports said that a big number of men did not 
vote because they believed that their vote will not make any 
difference. 
 
-Shamshad TV reported that unlike the expectations, a great number 
of women voted in Helmand provinces. 
 
-Tolo TV also reports on optimism and large numbers of women 
participating in the voting process in Pul-e-Khomri, the capital of 
northern Baghlan province. 
 
-Pajhwok News reported that bad quality ink is being used in two 
polling stations in Kabul.  Ramadan Bashardost, one of the 
presidential candidates, said that the ink came off easily and 
called it a fraud. 
 
-A Tolo TV reporter from central Maidan Wardak province quotes 
residents as saying that the ink used in marking the voters is 
removable.  According to report, polling centers in some other 
districts of the province were still not clearly identified by the 
provincial Independent Election Commission (IEC) and people did not 
know where to go to vote. 
 
-Tolo TV in central Bamyan province reports participation of boys 
under the age of 18 (not voting age)in the voting process. A 
reporter says he saw boys under age 15 coming to polling stations to 
vote. The reporter also says he saw cars with the pictures of some 
candidates tagged on their windshields stopping in front of groups 
of people walking towards polling stations. According to the 
reporter, people inside these cars were asking people to go with 
them to the polling stations and vote for the candidates whose 
pictures were tagged on their cars. 
 
-A Tolo TV reporter in eastern Nangarhar province says he saw groups 
of people walking towards polling centers to vote. The TV presenter 
reports that a lack of voting materials at some polling stations in 
remote districts of northern and southern Afghan provinces are 
hampering the election. 
 
-A Tolo TV reporter from western Herat reports on a lack of polling 
stations in the province, quoting residents as saying that they had 
to wait hours at the polling stations to vote. The reporter says the 
city of Herat was under a tight security precaution and that the 
police and national army forces could be seen everywhere in the city 
searching cars and people. 
 
-Pajhwok Afghan News reported on a lack of police presence in 90 
polling sites in Ghor province.  The IEC and the Afghanistan 
Independent Human Rights Commission confirmed the report and 
expressed concern over the fairness of elections in the province. 
 
-BBC reported that 31 polling sites were closed in Gardez, Zurmat 
and Jani Khail districts of Paktia province due to security 
concerns.  Provincial security officials said that security threats 
and the fact that the IEC staff did not report for work were the 
reasons for the closure. 
 
-BBC reported that two people were killed when a rocket landed near 
a polling station in Helmand province.  Taliban claimed the 
responsibility for the attack. 
 
-Tolo TV reports from southeastern Paktia on fires in Gardez. 
According to the reporter, two rockets were fired on the city this 
morning and landed in non-residential areas. The reporter also says 
residents in groups were walking towards polling stations to vote. 
There were no casualties. 
 
-Radio Azadi reported on three explosions in Kabul this morning. 
The Ministry of Defense confirmed the report and said there were no 
casualties. 
 
-Tolo TV:  A resident of the capital Kabul in interview with Tolo TV 
reporter says he was fed up with poverty and will carry out a 
suicide attack unless the government does something to improve his 
living condition. Another angry resident of Kabul criticized the 
current government for failing to improve the lives of ordinary 
people, saying he is undecided who to vote for and that he might not 
even go to the polling box and vote. Yet another resident of Kabul 
says he was happy to take part in the elections, which is an 
important opportunity for all Afghans. 
 
-Ariana TV reported that the Afghan police confiscated a car laden 
with explosives in Logar province. 
 
-Pajhwok Afghan News reported that two suicide bombers were arrested 
in Takhar province.  According to security officials, the suicide 
bombers were attempting to attack polling sites in the province. 
 
-An editorial published by Pajhwok News Agency summarized security 
and human rights concerns, concerns, the recent candidate 
withdrawals, and UN Special Representative Kai Eide's and Secretary 
of State Hillary Clinton's statements on the Afghan Elections. 
 
-Tolo TV showed a new video clip in which Gulbudin Hikmatyar, the 
leader of Hizb-e Islami, sets conditions for bringing an end to the 
war in Afghanistan: the unconditional withdrawal of international 
troops; establishment of a provisional government; holding of free 
and transparent elections. 
 
-Tolo TV reports from southeastern Paktia on fires in Gardez. 
According to the reporter, two rockets were fired on the city this 
morning and landed in non-residential areas. The reporter also says 
residents in groups were walking towards polling stations to vote. 
There were no casualties. 
 
¶13. (U) Messaging remains consistent with 8pm Afghan Elections 
Situation Report eight.  We will review and update as necessary for 
the next report. 
 
EIKENBERRY