VZCZCXYZ0000
RR RUEHWEB

DE RUEHBUL #2432/01 2312320
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 192320Z AUG 09
FM AMEMBASSY KABUL
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 0937
INFO RUEHIL/AMEMBASSY ISLAMABAD 7758
RUEHNO/USMISSION USNATO 3785
RHEHAAA/NSC WASHDC
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC

UNCLAS KABUL 002432 
 
DEPT FOR AFGHAN ELECTIONS TASK FORCE 
 
SIPDIS 
SENSITIVE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM AF
 
SUBJECT: Afghan Elections Situation Report Three - 0400 Local, 
August 20, 2009 
 
¶1. (SBU) A possible last minute weapons ban in Kabul may impact 
observation efforts.  Embassy elections operation center is working 
to verify specifics of reports that the Ministry of Interior imposed 
on Tuesday an unpublicized ban of all weapons in Kabul.  Reportedly 
steps can be taken to seek an exemption, but they are unclear.  The 
next sitrep is scheduled for 0800 local on August 20. 
 
--------- 
Security 
--------- 
 
¶2. (SBU) We have confirmed a media report that the Ministry of 
Interior has implemented a ban stating that no weapons may be 
carried in Kabul on election day, unless security personnel have an 
appropriate exemption.  It is still unclear how this ban affects 
properly licensed personal security details.  Reportedly, anyone 
caught with a weapon will be arrested and the weapon will be 
confiscated.  This last minute regulation has the potential to 
severely restrict international election observer missions, 
including U.S. embassy teams, who rely on private security companies 
for protection. 
 
¶3.  The Deputy Spokesperson of the Karzai campaign, Seddiq Seddiqi, 
praised Afghan and international security forces for their efforts 
to secure the elections to a Canadian Embassy representative on 
August 19.  Acknowledging the attack on a bank in central Kabul 
earlier in the day, Seddiqi underscored the prompt and professional 
response of the security forces.  The Karzai campaign has high hopes 
for stability and security through polling day and does not expect 
electoral violence, but is taking some precautions to safeguard 
their personnel in the field in the event that political violence 
does occur.  Provincial reports by region follow: 
 
Regional Command (RC) - North 
 
-- BAGHLAN:  NDI observers report the local police in Baghlan have 
said that there may be an attack on the police station or a guest 
house where observers are staying.  The NDI team is liaising with 
the ANP and the regional command. 
-- KUNDUZ:  NDI reported that it pulled back its international 
long-term observers (LTOs) from a hotel in Kunduz City to the PRT in 
Kunduz due to rocket atacks arlie on August 19.  The local 
nationalobservers and their PSDs are still i the hotel. 
International LTOs will decide on the morning of August 20 whether 
to deploy out to the city, but Afghan short-term observers and LTOs 
still plan to deploy at this time. 
 
RC-East 
 
-- GHAZNI:  There were anti-Afghan forces (AAF) attacks today in 
Zanakhan, Khogyani, and Rashidan district centers.  The ANP 
temporarily fled the Zanakhan district center after AAF broadcast 
warnings were announced over loudspeakers.  According to Task Force 
White Eagle, the ANP returned to the Zanakhan district center by the 
end of the day.  There were also AAF attacks on FB Giro and FOB 
Warrior.  A Polish quick reaction force in Giro responded and seized 
enemy arms. 
 
Coalition force helicopters were sent to Mungur district in southern 
Ghazni to interrogate possible targets on rooftops there, including 
men carrying RPGs.  Governor Usmani told PRT officer that the men 
were arbakai, in place to protect polling centers.  This message was 
relayed to the helicopters.  In a fly-over, the men were observed 
wearing ANA-type uniforms, and waved at the helicopters.  This event 
illustrates the potential danger of having arbakai and other types 
of community police at polling centers who are not clearly marked as 
security hired by the GIRoA.  Governor Usmani instructed the Ghazni 
Police Chief to contact the Operations Coordination 
Center-Provincial (OCC-P) and provide the details on the arbakai, so 
that this information could then be sent to Coalition Forces 
operating in Ghazni province. 
 
-- PARWAN: (SBU) Rumors continue to circulate that Abdullah 
supporters in the province will take to the streets if their 
candidate does not win.  Those who have repeated such rumors to the 
PRT tend to be either Karzai supporters or relatively neutral.  One 
local commander in the Bagram area told the PRT today that 
Rabbani/Massoud-allied commanders were distributing weapons to 
Abdullah supporters to use for such protest actions.  Abdullah has 
strong support in the non-Pashtun areas (i.e. the majority) of the 
province. 
 
RC-West 
 
-- HERAT: NDI's two international and two Afghan LTOs plan to deploy 
 
on August 20 despite the IED incidents which occurred on August 19. 
 
---------------------------- 
Voting & Counting Activities 
---------------------------- 
 
¶4. (SBU) Regional reporting follows: 
RC-East 
 
-- PANJSHIR: PRT Panjshir has looked into the disappearance of 
ballots and other sensitive materials bound for Mandol district in 
Nuristan.  The materials, which were driven across Panjshir before 
being loaded onto pack animals, were reportedly destroyed by armed 
attackers six hours after crossing into Nuristan.  The IEC staff 
then returned to Paryon district in Panjshir, where they were 
interviewed by ANP and NDS.  UNDP reports that the IEC staff 
involved had been reluctant to make the trip due to its length and 
difficulty, raising suspicions that they might have abandoned or 
sold the materials en route.  However, ANP Chief Sabor told PRT he 
believes the IEC staff are telling the truth.  Separately, UNAMA 
reports that NDS is "100 percent sure" that the ballots were indeed 
destroyed in Nuristan. 
 
-- GHAZNI: In Ghazni province, the IEC has requested assistance in 
moving voting materials to Jaghatu district.  The IEC will bring the 
materials to FOB Ghazni at 5am on August 20 for delivery by ANA 
helicopter to Jaghatu district center.  Overall, Governor Usmani 
provided an optimistic report on the status of polling centers 
across the province; however, the IEC has not confirmed the 
information provided by the governor. 
 
-- PARWAN: The IEC reports that District Field Coordinators (DFCs) 
and sensitive materials have arrived at all polling centers.  In a 
successful operation, Coalition Forces provided air movement for the 
DFC and materials this morning to Jozak in southern Kohe Safi 
district, the only such movement in the province that could not be 
completed by ground.  Coalition Forces will retrieve the materials 
and DFC tomorrow following the closure of the polling sites in the 
area. 
 
------------- 
Voter Turnout 
------------- 
 
¶5. (SBU) No updates from sitrep two. 
 
----- 
Fraud 
----- 
 
¶6. (SBU) No updates from sitrep two. 
 
------------ 
Atmospherics 
------------ 
 
¶7. (U) In a short discussion with Canadian Embassy representatives, 
Seddiq Seddiqi, the Deputy Spokesperson of the Karzai campaign noted 
that optimism is high in the Karzai camp.  They believe they are on 
the winning track, and are confident of electoral victory.  Sediqqi 
was confident that Karzai (a household name in Afghanistan) is well 
positioned to secure the support of Afghan voters.  He stressed that 
Karzai has made great efforts to engage local and tribal leaders, 
politcial parties, and youth in an effort to build a broad support 
base.  Afghans, he contended, will vote for the candidate they 
believe can bring change, and that candidate will be Karzai. 
 
¶8.  (U) Sediqqi asserted that the Karzai campaign has mounted a 
credible, sound and principled campaign for the presidency.  While 
acknowledging "a couple of strong competitors", Sediqqi contended 
that Karzai has made not significant political errors, and is well 
positioned to build on his existing Presidential record to win the 
support of the majority of Afghans.  He believes Karzai will win in 
the first round, and hoped that a second round will not be 
necessary.  Seddiqi rejected any claim of misconduct involving 
misuse of government resources, stressing that the incumbent was 
careful even to attend to his personal campaign only during 
sanctioned holidays.  He did not comment of the fine leveled against 
Karzai running-mate Khalili by the ECC for the inappropriate use of 
a MOD helicopter earlier this month. 
 
¶9.  (U) Sediqqi noted that the Karzai campaign has been satisfied to 
date with the work of the IEC, noting in particular the challenge of 
delivering elections under current security conditions.  While he 
was unsure of numbers, Sediqqi was nonetheless confident that the 
 
Karzai campaign is not making active use of the ECC at this time. 
 
¶10. (SBU) Regional reporting from key regions and provinces 
follows: 
 
RC-East 
 
-- PANJSHIR: On the eve of the elections, Panjshiris are going about 
their daily business and the mood is relaxed. 
 
-- GHAZNI:  The PRT officer reports unusual quiet in the province. 
Homes and businesses along Highway One that are normally bustling 
with activity were practically devoid of human activity.  Local 
nationals employed on FOB Ghazni interpreted this as evidence of the 
residents' fear of being seen out in public on the eve of the 
elections. 
 
-- PARWAN: Governor Salangi told us that his visit yesterday to Kohe 
Safi was relatively uneventful (except for one incident of small 
arms fire apparently near his location).  He promoted the electoral 
process in a series of meetings and found people enthusiastic for 
the vote.  He plans to visit several polling centers tomorrow in the 
central, lowland districts of the province to ensure that the 
process is proceeding smoothly and peacefully.  He and ANSF both do 
not rule out a security incident occurring on polling day.  Karzai 
supporter MP Haji Almas told the PRT that he has been spending the 
past two days intensively campaigning in Parwan for Karzai. 
 
 
-------------- 
Public Affairs 
-------------- 
 
¶11.  (U) AFGHAN MEDIA HIGHLIGHTS: There are no media updates for 
sitrep three.  The next media update will appear in sitrep four. 
 
 
 
¶12. (SBU) MESSAGING: 
 
Messaging remains consistent with Afghan Elections Situation Report 
One.  We will review and update as necessary for the next report. 
 
EIKENBERRY