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DE RUEHBUL #2430/01 2311947
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 191947Z AUG 09
FM AMEMBASSY KABUL
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 0927
INFO RUEHIL/AMEMBASSY ISLAMABAD 7748
RUEHNO/USMISSION USNATO 3775
RHEHAAA/NSC WASHDC
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC

UNCLAS KABUL 002430 
 
DEPT FOR AFGHAN ELECTIONS TASK FORCE 
 
SIPDIS 
SENSITIVE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM AF
 
SUBJECT: Afghan Elections Situation Report Two - 1200 Local, August 
20, 2009 
 
¶1. (SBU) PRT and local media reporting suggest Afghan voters and 
officials are hoping for the best while preparing for the worst. 
Many voters may wait to see if violence erupts early in the day 
before deciding whether to go to the polls.  Yet, PRTs report 
optimism in unexpected places-Kunar, for example, where 121 women 
have registered to help staff polling sites.  IEC has released its 
final list of 6519 polling centers.  The next sitrep is scheduled 
for 0400 local on August 20. 
 
--------- 
Security 
--------- 
 
¶2. (SBU) Post raised at a high level the issue of the GIRoA ban on 
reporting violent incidents, while private media outlets announced 
they would report in spite of it.  COMISAF has instructed regional 
commanders not/not to distribute voting materials to districts 
without an ANSF presence.  In the event that local authorities 
themselves distribute materials to such districts, ISAF forces will 
report the grid coordinates of the districts to IEC. 
 
¶3. (SBU) IEC Chairman Dr. Najafi separately told Emboffs that 
delivery of sensitive materials is proceeding smoothly with no major 
incidents, and he repeated his assertion that only Polling Centers 
(PCs) with ANA and/or ANP security will receive materials.  Emboffs 
mentioned that ballots were delivered to a PC in Paktika's Azra 
district, where there were no IEC employees, nor ANA or ANP presence 
and that the ballots were seized by armed militia.  Najafi's answer 
was categorical:  any materials mistakenly delivered to a PC without 
ANA and/or ANP security and IEC employees will automatically be 
annulled and the results will not be tabulated. 
 
¶4. (SBU) IEC Chairman Dr. Najafi told Emboffs that he was not 
satisfied with Global security procedures at IEC headquarters and 
complained about some of the security decisions made by Global. 
COMMENT: It appeared to Emboffs that Dr. Najafi did not fully 
understand some of the security requirements necessary to protect 
the compound and briefings would be needed to help keep him abreast 
of necessary procedures. END COMMENT.  Provincial reports by region 
follow: 
 
Regional Command (RC) - North 
 
-- JOWZJAN: ANP have confirmed the murder of Jowzjan Provincial 
Council candidate Mawlawi Abdul Rahim, who was pulled from his 
vehicle two days ago by unknown assailants along the road between 
Aqcha and Murdian districts of Jowzjan province.  Rahim was an 
independent candidate. 
 
-- FARYAB: In Ghormach district, Faryab, the ANP headquarters came 
under rocket attack around 6:30pm.  Four ANP were killed and at 
least one was wounded.  This will impact ANSF's ability to transport 
voting materials to the polling centers before polls are scheduled 
to open. 
 
RC-South 
 
-- HELMAND: In a security shura convened by Helmand Governor Mangal, 
UK Task Force Helmand Commanding General Radford conveyed the UK 
assessment of "enormous intimidation" throughout Helmand Province, 
while MEB Commanding General, BGen Larry Nicholson cited the IEC's 
impressive role in preparing Helmand for the election despite 
obvious security challenges.  BGen Nicholson warned of the possible 
use of ANP uniforms by Taliban fighters to infiltrate polling sites, 
after Marines found ANP uniforms during their operations. 
 
-- KANDAHAR: In Kandahar, threats and voter intimidation continue 
throughout the province, but especially in the Kandahar City area. 
Kandahar PRT received reports that insurgents visited mosques at 
prayer time and warned locals not to participate in the election. 
Night letters warning against voting were also distributed in the 
city and its environs, while the police reported that shops began to 
close this afternoon.  They are not expected to reopen until after 
election day.  Afghan security forces report that from 1600 August 
19 through the evening of August 20, they would stop all vehicles in 
Kandahar City not displaying special passes allowing them travel in 
the city. 
 
-- KANDAHAR: Around 10pm an IEC attack occurred at a checkpoint near 
a polling station in Spin Boldak district, Kandahar.  Four Border 
Police and one civilian are reported killed.  An investigation is 
underway to determine if the target was the polling station or the 
checkpoint itself. 
 
-- URUZGAN: Intense fighting between ISAF elements and insurgents in 
 
Deh Rawud district of Uruzgan contrasts with the relative calm of 
Tarin Kowt, where bazaars were full today. However, the Uruzgan 
Principal Election Officer (PEO) reported that all election 
materials have been distributed throughout the province and are in 
the custody of IEC officials and either ANP or ANA officers. 
 
RC-East 
 
-- KHOST: In Khost province, where all voting materials have been 
safely delivered to polling centers, the security chiefs have 
received 157 threatening calls - 13 specifically from insurgents 
threatening ANSF commanders.  Several of the calls yielded useful 
information and leads on IED locations. 
 
---------------------------- 
Voting & Counting Activities 
---------------------------- 
 
¶5. (U) In Farah province in RC-West, 29 polling centers in Pur 
Chaman district have yet to receive election materials.  Twenty-five 
thousand voters are affected.  ISAF will fly materials to the 
District Center at first light on August 20, and is trying to 
confirm that IEC can get the materials moved from the District 
Center to polling centers in time for the opening of the polls. 
 
------------- 
Voter Turnout 
------------- 
 
¶6.  (SBU) Voting materials not yet at polling centers and security 
threats both have the potential to depress voter turnout.  Several 
provinces report insurgent threats to voters. 
 
RC-South 
 
-- KANDAHAR: Kandahar PRT's best estimate is that voter 
participation in Kandahar province will be somewhere between 20% and 
40%.  Areas perceived to have better security, i.e., parts of 
Kandahar City and Dand, Daman, and Spin Boldak districts, will 
likely have the highest participation.  PRT expects many potential 
voters will stay indoors early in the day and assess the security 
situation before deciding whether to vote.  The PRT anticipates 
meaningful female participation to be low, due to security concerns, 
the influence of male family members, high levels of illiteracy 
among women, and a general lack of information about the voting 
process. 
 
-- ZABUL: In Zabul, increased attacks in Shajoy (the largest 
population center in the province) may deter voter turnout in that 
district. 
 
RC-East 
 
-- KUNAR: At the Women's Center in Asadabad, Kunar the director had 
registered 121 women to help staff the polling site.  Locals there 
and at other sites were optimistic about turnout, the candidacy of 
Karzai (the provincial favorite), and the fact that these were 
Afghan-run elections where their votes would count.  Polling sites 
were still awaiting expected IEC representatives with ballot 
materials at 1700 local.  In Shingal district, Night Letters 
distributed the evening before were countered today by a message 
from the District Governor to the mosques for people to not be 
afraid and intimidated and to get out and vote. 
 
-- NURISTAN: UNDP reports there will be no voting in Waygul, 
Nuristan.  ANP judge they cannot safely leave the district center to 
escort materials and guard polling sites.  This will impact an 
estimated 12,998 registered voters from Waygul.  Combined with the 
August 18 destruction of election materials, reported burned en 
route to Mandol district, an estimated 28% of Nuristani voters will 
not be able to cast ballots. 
 
RC-West 
 
-- HERAT: In Herat, as of late evening, 17 polling centers are 
unlikely to open - 14 in Guzara district and three in Zarghun - as 
the IEC was unable to deliver election materials.  However, the IEC 
still hopes to open at least some of these polling sites later in 
the day.  In Shindand district, all polling sites have their 
materials and are scheduled to open with ANA and ANP at each 
location. 
 
----- 
Fraud 
----- 
 
 
¶7. (SBU) Dr. Abdullah's senior advisor Farid Zekria told us that 
Abdullah has over 25,000 candidate agents registered and has had no 
major problems deploying them, except for an issue in Kandahar 
where, he alleges, the IEC gave the vehicle permits for candidate 
agents to the chief of police who refused to give them to Abdullah's 
group.  Zekria said he raised the issue with local and international 
authorities and believed it was going to be resolved. 
 
RC-North 
 
-- BALKH: Karzai's campaign manager in Balkh reported that 
insurgents have warned villagers in Qoland village, Sholgara 
district not to vote or to face "dire consequences." 
 
RC-East 
 
-- KHOST: Khost province has witnessed several incidents of voter 
intimidation.  In Diel Puri village (on the border of Tani and 
Mandozai districts), armed men reportedly warned villagers not to 
vote.  There were reports of 25 rockets stored in Sebari district 
that will be aimed at polling centers on August 20.  Night letters 
were also distributed along the Tani-Gorbuz road warning people not 
to vote and indicating that anyone found with an ink-stained finger, 
would have that finger cut off before they are killed. 
 
------------ 
Atmospherics 
------------ 
 
¶8. (SBU) Regional reporting from key regions and provinces follows: 
 
RC-NORTH 
 
-- BALKH: Governor Mohammad Atta hosted an Afghan Independence Day 
dinner yesterday, attended by Abdullah's VP running mates Hamayon 
Shaf Asefi (grandson of former king Zahir Shah) and Cheragh Ali 
Cheragh.  In a private conversation, First VP running mate Asefi 
told State PRT officer that "it doesn't matter who wins as long as 
there's change."  He said Karzai had stooped to new depths in 
allowing Dostum to return, and added that the only place that Dostum 
should be allowed to travel to is The Hague where he should be 
prosecuted for war crimes.  Asefi said he thought Abdullah should 
have participated in the last debate with Karzai and Ghani.  He said 
he was not aware of any talks that might be taking place between 
Abdullah and Junbesh's Sayed Noorullah, who has hinted that he might 
back another candidate if the election goes to a second round and 
Dostum is still in Afghanistan. 
 
RC-SOUTH 
 
-- KANDAHAR: The Kandahar Director of Public Health reports that 
Mirwais Hospital in Kandahar City has stocked up on blood and placed 
additional staff on stand-by.  It has also coordinated with the 
World Health Organization, which reportedly is prepared to provide 
10,000 basic health emergency kits in the event of mass casualties. 
 
 
-- HELMAND: Governor Mangal said in a meeting with PRT officers that 
during his recent meeting with Karzai in Kabul, Karzai asked him if 
it was true that the Lashkar Gah PRT (meaning the UK) was paying 
people to vote for Ghani.  Mangal insisted Karzai was serious about 
the question, which was likely planted by SMA, who blames the 
British for his own removal from Helmand two years ago. 
 
RC-EAST 
 
-- KUNAR: Asadabad (Kunar) is ready to vote.  According to the local 
police chief, election security is not a problem.  Visits by the PRT 
officer to four polling sites - three in downtown Asadabad and one 
in Shigal District - showed preparations were underway for voting. 
President Karzai is the overwhelming favorite not just in Asadabad 
but throughout Kunar Province.  Though he is already the perceived 
winner by many, they say they are voting for him because he is a 
good man who has done much for the country.  Though recent violence 
around the country is a concern for people here, at least in the 
city, it did not seem likely to stop anyone from voting. 
 
-- ZABUL: All polling materials and staff are reported to have 
reached polling centers.  Provincial council candidates submitted 
last minute requests to the governor for assistance in moving 
political party observers to polling centers, which was denied.  The 
Governor, ANSF leadership, and local officials attended and spoke at 
the Independence Day ceremony at the ANA camp, which featured poetry 
recitals, dancing and religious sermons. 
 
 
-------------- 
Public Affairs 
-------------- 
 
¶X.  AFGHAN MEDIA HIGHLIGHTS: 
 
Election preparations were the top story in the Afghan media for 
this reporting period. The IEC announced it has already delivered 
80% of sensitive electoral materials to remote polling centers, with 
the remaining 20% on their way, but said security concerns kept 
election teams from opening polling centers in nine districts in 
southern Afghanistan. 
 
Also receiving extensive coverage was the government's decree 
banning media from reporting violence on Election Day.  The ban, 
issued by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, prohibits "broadcasting 
any incidence of violence" between 6am and 8pm on Election Day "to 
ensure the wide participation of the Afghan people."  The edict was 
roundly criticized across the Afghan media; Rahimullah Samander, 
head of the Independent Journalist Association of Afghanistan, 
called it "unconstitutional censorship," and said Afghan journalists 
would continue to report as usual. 
 
Radio Azadi reported two American soldiers have died as a result of 
an improvised explosive device (IED) attack on their patrol in 
southern Afghanistan, while in a separate attack two American 
soldiers were killed and at least three injured when their convoy 
struck an IED in eastern Afghanistan. 
 
Radio Azadi also reported that a tribal force captured more than a 
dozen Taliban fighters during an ongoing search operation in the 
Spin Ghar district of Nangarhar province.  A tribal elder said his 
tribe is continuing the joint operation with Afghan National 
Police. 
 
President Barack Obama's message of congratulations to the Afghan 
people on their Independence Day was carried widely by the Afghan 
media. 
 
Ariana TV reported on General Dostum's reaction to expressions of 
concern from the United States and the international community over 
his possible involvement in human rights violations.  Dostum 
reportedly said the U.S. should be happy he has returned, as he is 
the only friend America and NATO have, and that his coming back will 
contribute to peace and stability, adding "I want to sit with my 
American friends and make a plan so that, within two or three years, 
we will bring peace and security to all of Afghanistan."  He was 
quoted as saying the United States of America and international 
friends should put together a commission to investigate the 
allegations and find the truth. 
 
Shamshad TV reported that Akbarboi said he is going to file a 
complaint against Dostum through the Security Council at the 
International Court in the Hague. 
 
The Elections Complaint Commission (ECC) fined Afghan state 
broadcaster RTA for showing President Karzai speaking after the 
official end of campaigning.  Meanwhile, the IEC Media Monitoring 
Commission accused several private print and broadcast media outlets 
of violating the media code of conduct in the elections rules and 
regulations.  Outlets accused include Noorin, Tamadun, Tolo and 
Shamshad. 
 
VOA carried a live interview with Sima Samar, chairperson of the 
Afghanistan Independent Human Rights Commission, on the amendment of 
Shiite family law ordered by President Karzai. Samar said there are 
still some technical problems, but welcomed the amendment now that 
the 13th article - "It is the responsibility of the wife to prepare 
for sexual satisfaction of her husband and not leave the house 
without permission, unless there is need or difficulty" - has been 
removed. 
 
Radio Killid reported that Afghan police in Logar province seized a 
vehicle loaded with explosives. 
 
Radio Azadi reported that 11 insurgents, including a commander, were 
killed in Uruzgan province. 
 
Ariana TV reported that 22 polling centers in Kunduz will close due 
to security concerns. 
 
¶9. (SBU) MESSAGING: 
 
Messaging remains consistent with Afghan Elections Situation Report 
 
One.  We will review and update as necessary for the next report. 
 
EIKENBERRY