P 191305Z AUG 09 
FM AMEMBASSY KABUL 
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 0918 
INFO RUCNAFG/AFGHANISTAN COLLECTIVE PRIORITY

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 KABUL 002426 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL AF
SUBJECT: AFGHAN ELECTIONS: MEDIA BAN FALLOUT, AFGHAN VOTER 
RESILIENCE 
 
REF: A. KABUL 2419 
¶B. KABUL 2040 
¶C. KABUL 2405 
¶D. KABUL 2366 
¶E. KABUL 2334 
 
¶1. (SBU) The Afghan government has instructed all media to 
refrain from reporting any "terrorist activities or 
movements" on elections Day. Only two Afghan outlets have 
reported on the ban, Radio Azadi and Pajhwok. Privately 
Afghan journalists say they will continue to report on 
terrorist attacks, noting the ban is not enforceable. Two 
Tolo television journalists were temporarily detained by the 
National Security Agency (NSA) forces August 19 for reporting 
on the Taliban attack at a bank in Kabul, suggesting 
Karzai,s government may be singling out the Afghan media. 
The ban, for those who hear of it, could generate more fear 
and discourage voter turnout. If the local press attacks 
Karzai for the ban as the international press has, he may 
lose some of his momentum (ref A). Regardless, Afghans show 
some signs of resilience in the face of violence--although 
voting will remain uneven in the most dangerous provinces. 
 
----------------------------------- 
Political Fallout of Media Blackout 
----------------------------------- 
 
¶2. (SBU) On August 19, the Foreign Ministry and the Interior 
Ministry issued statements calling on a media ban on any 
incidence of violence on elections day August 20 from 6 a.m. 
- 8 p.m. The initial Dari version of the announcement said 
it was "strictly forbidden," whereas the English version was 
a "request," likely demonstrating the government may crack 
down harder on national media, where journalists will be more 
susceptible to intimidation. Two Tolo television journalists 
were temporarily detained a day before the supposed blackout, 
August 19. Tolo journalists said "the Afghan NSA did not 
want us repotin on the breaking news of the Taliban attacks 
on the bank in Kabul." They were released, and reported no 
abuse. However, many interlocutors believe this was a 
strategic warning to the national press to abide by the ban, 
even a day early. 
 
¶3. (SBU) Despite the ban, most media outlets tell us they 
will continue to report on terrorist attacks, noting that it 
is their responsibility to give the Afghan people accurate 
information, and that the 
Afghan government has no formal means to enforce the ban. 
The Afghan press, aside from Radio Azadi and Pajhwok, has not 
reported on the ban thus far. If Karzai starts to receive bad 
national press on the evening news--so far it has been 
primarily international--this may affect his campaign. Also, 
if the media indeed continues to report on the violence, 
Karzai could lose support from Pashtun votes in the most 
dangerous southern and eastern provinces, as voters are 
dissuaded from going to the polls by numerous, 
widely-publicized attacks on voting day. The talk of the ban 
itself could also dissuade voters, as they will not have 
information on attacks, and therefore may opt to stay home. 
 
--------------------------- 
Voter Resilience Continues 
--------------------------- 
 
¶4. (SBU) August 19 Independence Day celebrations continued 
on schedule in Kabul and in the Central Hazarajaat, as well 
s most of the north. The size of the celebrations, as 
reported by the Provincial Reconstruction Teams (PRTs), 
appeared to mirror the security map of Afghanistan, with no 
celebrations in the most dangerous provinces. The Paktika 
Governor's Office told us there would be no Independence Day 
celebrations due to security concerns and the deployment of 
Afghan National Security Forces to polling stations. Paktia 
district governors told us that, despite the Taliban's night 
letters warning the people to not vote, the people "are 
prepared to vote tomorrow." In Nuristan government officials 
said , "the people are organizing themselves to protect their 
right to vote." 
 
¶5. (SBU) Many interlocutors tell us Afghan voters are 
increasing disillusioned with the democratic process, 
predicting that voter turn-out will not reach the 75% range 
it did in the 2004 presidential elections. Female MPs and 
university students have told us that the female and youth 
votes will likely decrease, due in part to this 
disillusionment. Further, the impact of the historic recent 
presidential debates (ref A, B), and the increase in the 
perception among the Afghan people that this time, more than 
the last, the United States is impartial, remains to be seen. 
 
¶6. (SBU) Note: the Embassy is preparing talking points on 
the media ban, and has raised the issue with the Presidential 
Palace. Senior Palace Representatives responded that they 
will "clarify" what was meant by the press releases, and that 
all they wanted was for the media to report "responsibly." 
 
 
EIKENBERRY