VZCZCXRO3462
RR RUEHDBU RUEHPW RUEHSL
DE RUEHBUL #2363/01 2271326
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 151326Z AUG 09
FM AMEMBASSY KABUL
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 0829
INFO RUCNAFG/AFGHANISTAN COLLECTIVE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 KABUL 002363 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: ECON EAGR EAID EINV EMIN ENRG EPET ETRD PINR
SNAR, AF. PREL, PGOV 
SUBJECT: GHANI, ABDULLAH DEBATE ECONOMY--WITHOUT KARZAI 
 
¶1. (SBU) Summary:  In a televised August 10th debate in front of a 
live audience, presidential candidates Ashraf Ghani Ahmadzai and 
Abdullah Abdullah highlighted agriculture and natural resources as 
the keys to Afghanistan's economic future.  Both candidates sketched 
their visions for increasing employment, emphasizing the importance 
of including women.  Abdullah focused on poverty reduction through 
investment in water, energy, transit, natural resources, and 
agriculture.  Ghani called for widening economic opportunity in eight 
"economic zones" and expanded governmental authority for six 
municipalities that would serve as models for municipal reform 
country-wide.  President Karzai declined to participate, probably due 
to his vulnerability on the rise of drug trading, perceived 
corruption, and nepotism.  Despite Karzai's absence, the 
debate was another significant step in providing the Afghan 
electorate with important information about Karzai's main 
challengers.  End summary. 
 
Atmospherics: A replay of the first TV debate 
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 
¶2. (U) In overall tone, Abdullah seemed to aim for an air 
of "senior statesman," dressed in a dark suit and speaking 
in often-poetic generalities.  By contrast, Ghani's PhD in 
economics was evident in his presentation: he dug deeper 
into issues, using specific examples including raisin 
production and cement standards to illustrate his plans for 
Afghan employment.  Wearing Afghan dress, Ghani took 
several populist pot-shots at international aid and 
subcontracting.  Ghani was interrupted three times during 
his introductory presentation by spontaneous applause, and 
he often joked with Abdullah and the audience.  Abdullah 
was more constrained, reading his initial presentation and 
final address from prepared notes. Both candidates criticized Karzai 
for failing to appear. 
 
Abdullah's Five Pillars 
- - - - - - - - - - - - 
 
¶3. (U) Abdullah's prepared speech emphasized sustainable 
growth and poverty reduction through market economics, with 
the government playing a "pivotal role with respect to 
reforming laws, supervising the implementation of laws, and 
regulating the private sector."  Mentioning that the 
government must "intervene in the economy when necessary," 
he proposed a system of joint ventures with domestic and 
international companies, industrial zones, tax exemptions, 
and expanded employment opportunities for youth and women. 
He advocated simplification of investment laws and 
elimination of corruption and costly red tape. 
 
¶4. (U) Abdullah described five pillars of his economic 
policy:  water, energy, transit, natural resources, and 
agriculture (with agriculture receiving "80 percent of 
government support.") 
 
--Water:  Abdullah highlighted the need to negotiate 
transboundary water agreements with neighbors and "educate 
experts" on water use. 
--Energy:  "Afghanistan can become an energy exporter," he 
promised, emphasizing that the way to decrease imports is 
through sustainable solutions (hydro and renewables). 
--Transit:  Abdullah again emphasized diplomacy and 
negotiations with neighbors, plus interprovincial roads, 
secondary roads, and small airfields in remote regions. 
--Natural Resources:  "Afghanistan's mineral riches could 
fund these projects," he claimed, and better 
infrastructure, transparent tender processes, and lower 
royalty rates will be essential: he put priority on oil, 
gas, iron, and copper, while also specifically mentioning 
gemstones. 
--Agriculture:  Afghanistan can alleviate poverty through 
self-sufficiency in agriculture; he called for substitutes 
for poppy farming and support to farmers. 
 
Ghani's Detailed Vision 
- - - - - - - - - - - - 
 
¶5. (U) In a more discursive presentation befitting a former 
Berkeley and Johns Hopkins professor, Ghani outlined 
problems that beset Afghanistan's economy, including 
capital flight, complicated tax structure, lack of 
transparency and infrastructure, landlocked status, and 
narcotics production.  He also struck a less-factual note 
when he complained about "ineffective aid--there are four 
or more levels of contractors, and the money does not stay 
with Afghans.  Ninety cents of every dollar from USAID goes 
to the United States."  Commenting on Afghanistan's rampant 
unemployment, Ghani declared "the government cannot provide 
employment" and cited the market as the best solution. 
 
¶6. (U) Ghani won his first burst of applause during his 
 
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description of obstacles facing Afghan contractors on 
international aid projects when he called for "a legitimate 
economy to replace the mafia economy." He then called for 
insurance for investors (foreign and domestic) and 
highlighted the potential for women in the economy 
(reminding the audience that the Prophet's wife had been a 
wealthy woman in Mecca.) 
 
¶7. (U) Ghani garnered another round of applause when he 
echoed Abdullah's dream that Afghanistan will someday be a 
power exporter.  He called for a quick regional trade 
agreement so that Afghanistan can become "a land bridge" 
for the region.  Describing extensive Arab investments in 
Africa and Asia, he said one of his goals will be to win 
Arab investment for Afghanistan's agricultural sector. 
"Market access is critical," he added: "If Europe wants to 
help, let them open their market to our agricultural 
products.  NATO should buy Afghan products...Cotton cannot 
compete with narcotics, but clothes can.  Women can 
participate in traditional textile projects, and the United 
States should open its market." He noted that Afghan 
products would need to meet international standards. 
 
¶8. (U) As he has done in previous conversations with the 
Embassy, Ghani described eight "economic zones" in the 
country with different challenges and opportunities, 
emphasizing that all regions should have access to equal 
development.  Ghani also mentioned plans to create powerful 
"super mayors" in six cities, which would serve as a model 
for municipal reform throughout the country.  This "city 
solidarity program" prompted another round of applause. 
 
Questions, Answers, and Criticisms 
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 
¶9. (U) In the question and answer session, the 
entrepreneurs and businesspeople present responded 
enthusiastically to Ghani's cost-cutting suggestion of 
"eliminating the Ministry of Economy."  Both candidates 
suggested that they would eliminate the presidential Office 
of Administrative Affairs; as Ghani put it, "the president 
doesn't need 800 employees."  Ghani drew laughter and 
sustained applause when he asked sarcastically, "Why do we 
need international advisors?  To help us dig a well?" 
Abdullah responded with his own criticism of international 
advisors, saying that he had worked in a ministry with "one 
hundred international advisors, but there was no impact 
after they left.  They even took the hard drives, they left 
nothing.  We need to change this." 
 
Final Wrap-up 
- - - - - - - 
 
¶10.  (U) Ghani's final address continued in a populist 
vein, calling for Afghan dignity and envisioning a future 
where "no Afghan will toil under the hot sun in the deserts 
of Iran and Dubai."  Saying that "on the 20th of August the 
people will choose their future," Ghani called for 
"politics to overcome force" and "a government built on 
trust."  Abdullah used the media to address the electorate 
directly, reminding them of Afghanistan's rich potential 
and calling on all Afghans to work towards a day with no 
poverty: "On August 20th, you decide the fate of your great 
land.  Don't think you don't have the capability.  You can 
improve things; Afghanistan has the capacity to 
develop...Make the 20th of August a day when we take the 
country toward prosperity and peace." 
 
Comment 
- - - - 
 
¶11. (SBU) This first economic debate between presidential 
candidates was an important milestone for Afghanistan, 
although the two participants' presentations offered few 
surprises.  Also unsurprising was Karzai's absence. 
Although he could have pointed to years of sustained 
licit-economy growth and the expansion of media, telecom and 
financial services, he is vulnerable to criticism for the rise of 
illicit drug trading, perceived corruption, and nepotism.  That he 
chose not to participate reflects the campaign's political 
calculation that, as the incumbent, he has little to gain and much to 
lose in such open debate forums.  End comment. 
 
 
EIKENBERRY