VZCZCXRO0679
RR RUEHDBU RUEHPW RUEHSL
DE RUEHBUL #2337 2241420
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 121420Z AUG 09
FM AMEMBASSY KABUL
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 0796
INFO RUCNAFG/AFGHANISTAN COLLECTIVE
RUEHAK/AMEMBASSY ANKARA 2777

UNCLAS KABUL 002337 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR S/SRAP, SCA/FO, SCA/A, EUR/RPM 
STATE PASS TO AID FOR ASIA/SCAA 
USFOR-A FOR POLAD 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: KDEM PGOV PREL AF TU
SUBJECT: EIGHT DAYS TILL "E-DAY" - THE LATEST ON 
OBSERVER COVERAGE AND STATEMENTS 
 
REF:  KABUL 1679 
 
¶1. (SBU)  At the Aug. 11 U.S.-chaired International Observer 
Secretariat, representatives of 10 embassies, ISAF, UNAMA, 
UNDP-ELECT, and five observer missions, including the domestic 
entity FEFA, had a final exchange on common challenges in security, 
deployment, and reporting. 
 
UNDP Urges Caution in Reporting 
------------------------------- 
 
¶2.  (SBU) UNDP-ELECT briefed that its security team (UNDSS) predicts 
a dip in violent activity on election day, and a rising chance of 
protests and civil disturbances in the days following August 20.  In 
the context of this threat, UNDP-Elect's Margie Cook urged observers 
to exercise caution over the content and timing of their messages so 
as not to provide a "false image" of elections that candidates might 
exploit for their own purposes before the vote is certified.  She 
urged observer groups to stagger their messaging, to carefully 
consider the timing of releases, and to allow the voice of domestic 
observers to be the primary voice of observation.  FEFA, the 
domestic observer organization, said it would report on its field 
operations (i.e. number and location of observers) before and on 
election day "as a deterrent," but that it would not report its 
observations until later.  Note:  the Embassy is considering 
convening a meeting of the USG-funded observer organizations (IRI, 
Democracy International, NDI, and ANFREL) on August 21 to coordinate 
timing of messages and to share messages on a voluntary basis.  We 
will also attempt to trade details messages with the EU Observer 
Mission on the same day.  End Note. 
 
¶3.  (SBU) Comment:  The U.S. Embassy is neither coordinating nor 
directing the statements of U.S.-funded observer missions.  We are 
funding four independent observer organizations, each of which will 
have its own unique findings.  We will not filter their findings nor 
instruct them on what to report.  These observer groups provide an 
additional safeguard against fraud and demonstrate the international 
community's support for Afghan citizens' rights to credible and 
inclusive elections.  The Embassy will send accredited staff and 
Washington visitors to locations in Kabul to observe polling 
centers, but will not file a public and official U.S. government 
observer report.  End Comment. 
 
Deployments: On-the-Ground Realities 
Mean Adjusting Goals 
------------------------------------ 
 
¶4.  (SBU) The Turkish Embassy announced it will field 14 observers: 
2 to Wardak, 6 to Mazar, and 6 in Kabul.  Stepping back from its 
earlier predictions, the EU announced that it will not have 
observers in all 34 provinces.  USG-funded observers may also have 
to realign their geographic coverage, due to worse-than-expected 
lodging and logistical constraints at PRTs.  (Note:  Post is 
continuing to work this with ISAF.  End note.)  If these trends 
continue over the next week, in most of the areas of highest threat 
for fraud the onus will rest solely on domestic observers and 
candidate agents to provide reporting on irregularities.  At the 
moment, there is no international observer presence in Nuristan, 
Nimroz, or Daikondy. 
 
¶5.  (SBU) FEFA is looking into whether it will be able to observe in 
polling centers where security is provided by community/tribal 
elements, rather than ANP.  UNDP-ELECT's Margie Cook said all 
polling stations will be run by IEC-trained officials, regardless of 
who guards the door.  Comment:  As of 12 August, IEC says that it 
will not staff/deliver ballots unless a polling center has ANSF 
security, making observation moot.  End Comment. 
 
¶6. (SBU) The International Observer Secretariat will convene a 
smaller group of Embassies to plot out who will visit which 
precincts in Kabul in order to de-conflict routes.  UNAMA and OSCE 
will also be visiting polling stations on "E-day", although not as 
observers. 
 
¶7.  (SBU) Dirk Buda of the European Commission Office raised his 
concern that the IEC's high number of accreditations (138,806 
provincial council candidate agents, and 36,509 presidential 
candidate agents as of 12 August) would cause clogging at polling 
centers.  UNDP-ELECT noted that polling station workers may limit 
the number of agents and observers in a polling center. 
 
EIKENBERRY