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Viewing cable 09CHISINAU603, MOLDOVA CIVICS 101: WHAT YOU CAN DO WITH 53 MPs

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Reference ID Created Released Classification Origin
09CHISINAU603 2009-08-03 14:46 2011-08-26 00:00 UNCLASSIFIED Embassy Chisinau
VZCZCXRO3447
RR RUEHAG RUEHAST RUEHDA RUEHDBU RUEHDF RUEHFL RUEHIK RUEHKW RUEHLA
RUEHLN RUEHLZ RUEHNP RUEHPOD RUEHROV RUEHSK RUEHSL RUEHSR RUEHVK
RUEHYG
DE RUEHCH #0603 2151446
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 031446Z AUG 09
FM AMEMBASSY CHISINAU
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 8234
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
UNCLAS CHISINAU 000603 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR EUR/UMB, DRL/AE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PHUM PGOV KDEM MD
SUBJECT: MOLDOVA CIVICS 101:  WHAT YOU CAN DO WITH 53 MPs 
 
1. (SBU) Summary:  While there is a great deal of 
speculation about who might form a government in Moldova 
following repeat parliamentary elections on July 29, facts, 
in the form of numbers, remain stubborn things.  Acting 
President Voronin will remain in office until 61 (out of 
101) MPs vote to replace him.  With 53 seats, the four non- 
Communist parties do not have the numbers, even though they 
outnumber the "plurality-minority" Party of Communists, who 
hold 48.  The non-Communists can nominate a Speaker and 
appoint a cabinet, but the present numbers are a recipe for 
impasse.  End summary. 
 
Seats ShiftQBut No Rout of Communists 
------------------------------------- 
 
2. (SBU) The election, while changing the PCRM from a 
majority of 60 seats to its present 48, was not a rout.  The 
party's popular-vote share dropped only 4.7 percentage 
points, from 49.5 to 44.8 percent.  That loss translated 
into the larger parliamentary drop because fewer "wasted" 
votes were available for redistribution.  (Note:  In July 29 
elections, 4.2 percent of the vote went to parties that 
failed to reach the 5.0 percent threshold; on April 5, 15.2 
percent of votes went to the losers.  End note.)  The three 
opposition parties that won seats in April held a combined 
total of 41 seats; in the latest Parliament, they hold 40. 
The Democratic Party, under the new management of of former 
Speaker and PCRM defector Marian Lupu, went from no seats in 
April to 13 in July.  That gives the non-PCRM parties a 
majority of 53 seats. 
 
SoQWhat Can 53 MPs Do? 
---------------------- 
 
3. (SBU) They can do much of what a parliament does.  If the 
four opposition parties unite in a 53-seat bloc, they can 
elect a Speaker, adopt and amend laws, dismiss ministers, 
and return a vote of no confidence against the government. 
However, until 61 MPs unite around a candidate, no President 
can be elected, and Voronin will continue in office as 
Acting President.  Since only the President may nominate a 
Prime Minister, and Parliament must approve the candidate 
and his or her cabinet with a simple majority vote, we are 
likely to reach an impasse, as Acting President Voronin 
makes an unacceptable nomination to the 53 MPs who are not 
allowed to make any nomination. 
 
So, What Happens with an Impasse? 
--------------------------------- 
 
4. (SBU) If the two sides decide to fight over the 
nomination of a PM, and the process fails three times, the 
President must dissolve Parliament and call for new 
elections.  It is unclear, as Moldova enters unchartered 
constitutional waters, how to interpret the constitutional 
clause that Parliament can be dissolved only once in a year 
is that once in a calendar year, or does the year start from 
another date, such as April 5 elections, or from the June 15 
dissolution of Parliament? 
 
So, Is Moldova Stuck? 
--------------------- 
 
5. (SBU) Given the present numbers, and the declarations 
from all opposition parties that they would not join an 
alliance with the PCRM, Moldova does appear stuck.  If eight 
PCRP deputies defected, and they and the four opposition 
parties can agree on a candidate, then Moldova will have a 
president.  We will report septel on scenarios in which the 
human elementQalways a strong factor in the marketplace of 
Moldovan politicsQmight find away to loose the surly bonds 
of numbers. 
 
CHAUDHRY