VZCZCXRO2094
RR RUEHAST RUEHBI RUEHCI RUEHDBU RUEHLH RUEHNEH RUEHPW
DE RUEHCG #0278/01 2390532
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 270532Z AUG 09
FM AMCONSUL CHENNAI
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 2452
INFO RUEHNE/AMEMBASSY NEW DELHI 3835
RUCNCLS/ALL SOUTH AND CENTRAL ASIA COLLECTIVE
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 CHENNAI 000278 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL IN
SUBJECT: BY-ELECTIONS SEND MIXED POLITICAL SIGNALS IN SOUTH INDIA 
 
REF:  CHENNAI 223 
 
¶1. (SBU) Summary:  The states of Tamil Nadu and Karnataka held 
by-elections on August 18 to fill five legislative assembly seats in 
each state.  Tamil Nadu's ruling alliance of the DMK and Congress 
parties stomped the opposition, winning all five seats handily.  In 
Karnataka, the BJP increased its majority in the legislative 
assembly by winning two seats, but the state's opposition parties 
teamed up to hand the BJP its first electoral setback in the state 
in several years.  A 25-year-old Congress candidate won over an 
incumbent BJP minister, marking the first time in state history that 
a sitting minister has lost a by-election.  Although by-elections to 
state legislatures might not gain much attention elsewhere, they are 
critical events for local political leaders, who are vying for 
control of states significantly larger than most countries.  End 
Summary. 
 
DMK and Congress leave no doubts in Tamil Nadu 
--------------------------------------------- - 
 
¶2. (U) With Tamil Nadu's main opposition AIADMK boycotting the 
polls, probably sensing defeat but publicly claiming that the 
electronic voting machines can be tampered to favor the ruling 
party, the DMK/Congress alliance easily won all five by-elections. 
The DMK took three seats, while Congress won two.  (The two parties 
had agreed not to run candidates against each other, and had settled 
on the 3/2 split.)  Observers and party leaders are giving much of 
the credit for the victory to the tireless campaigning of Deputy 
Chief Minister (and son of the Chief Minister) M.K. Stalin, who was 
overseeing the state's first election since his elevation to the 
state's number-two job in May (see reftel). 
 
¶3. (U) With the AIADMK on the sidelines, Tamil film actor 
Vijayakanth's DMDK party came second in all the constituencies, 
winning more than 22 percent of the votes polled but coming nowhere 
close to victory.  The BJP and the two communist parties (CPM and 
CPI) contested for several seats, performed pathetically, and lost 
their deposits.  (Candidates in Indian elections are required to 
post a deposit -- INR 5000, or about USD 100 -- to run for office. 
If they fail to garner at least five percent of the vote, they "lose 
their deposit," the ultimate humiliation for a candidate.) 
 
¶4. (U) The DMK now holds a 98-seat plurality in the 234-seat 
legislative assembly.  Combined with the Congress Party's 36 seats, 
the DMK-Congress alliance maintains a comfortable governing 
majority.  The next legislative assembly elections are slated for 
¶2011. 
 
BJP picks up seats, but fails to "win" in Karnataka 
--------------------------------------------- ------ 
 
¶5. (SBU) The political tea leaves settling out of Karnataka's 
by-election are a bit more difficult to read.  At first glance, the 
BJP did well.  By winning two of the five by-election contests, it 
added to its majority in the legislative assembly, where it now 
controls 117 out of 224 seats.  It also picked up these two seats in 
districts formerly headed by Congress Party candidates (In one case, 
the incumbent died, leaving an empty seat.  The other seat was held 
previously by Congress Party member Mallikarjun Kharge, now Union 
Minister for Labor, who resigned the seat to take up his post in the 
national parliament.  This district is noteworthy because it is 
reserved for scheduled caste candidates.  The BJP, generally seen as 
a high-caste party, typically does not fare well in these "reserved 
constituencies" so the BJP's victory there may be a sign that it is 
broadening its appeal in Karnataka.) 
 
¶6. (U) Upon further inspection, however, the election results are 
not entirely in the BJP's favor.  The state's opposition parties -- 
JDS and Congress -- won three of the five contests.  In one of these 
contests, the JDS easily retained the seat held by H.D. Kumaraswamy 
(former Chief Minister and son of former Prime Minister Deve Gowda), 
who resigned his legislative assembly post to run for the national 
parliament.  In the other two contests, "defectors" from the 
Congress Party and JDS to the BJP were punished by the voters. 
(India's "anti-defection" law requires legislative assembly members 
who change parties to re-contest their seats.) 
 
¶7. (SBU) In perhaps the most noteworthy result, the BJP was 
embarrassed as a sitting minister (V. Somanna, a former Congress 
Party member who defected to the BJP, lured by the promise of a 
minister-ship) lost to the Congress Party's 25-year-old Priya 
Krishna, who became the legislative assembly's youngest member. 
This was the first time in state history that a sitting minister had 
lost a by-election.  That particular contest also saw heavy 
campaigning by the JDS -- including Deve Gowda himself -- on the 
Congress Party candidate's behalf.  Many observers are speculating 
that Congress and the JDS may now cooperate more closely to oppose 
the BJP in the state, as both recognize that only by working 
together are they likely to pose an electoral challenge to the BJP 
 
CHENNAI 00000278  002 OF 002 
 
 
in the state. 
 
¶8. (U) Regardless of the political spin, the fact remains that the 
BJP retains a firm command of Karnataka's legislative assembly, now 
holding 117 of its 224 seats.  The Congress Party's share now stands 
at 74, the JDS controls 27, and 6 independents have seats.  The 
legislative assembly is scheduled to hold full elections again in 
¶2013. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
¶9. (SBU) With May's parliamentary elections now ancient history by 
local standards, South India's politicians can now focus on what 
matters most to them -- controlling the systems of patronage and 
power in these large states (the populations of Tamil Nadu and 
Karnataka exceed those of France and South Korea, respectively). 
For many in the South's political elite -- particularly in Tamil 
Nadu -- state-level politics are significantly more important than 
what happens in far-off New Delhi, giving these sorts of 
by-elections far greater weight than many outsiders appreciate. 
 
SIMKIN