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R 041411Z AUG 09
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INFO RUEHZN/ENVIRONMENT SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY COLLECTIVE
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UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 BERLIN 000938 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR EUR/CE, OES, IO 
USDA PASS TO APHIS 
HHS FOR OGHA 
 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: ENRG SENV KGHG TRGY ECON PREL PGOV GM
SUBJECT: Nuclear Power and Germany's Climate Change Goals 
 
¶1. (U) SUMMARY:  The current CDU/CSU-SPD governing coalition 
agreement commits Germany to phase out all nuclear power, 
which currently provides 23 percent of Germany's electric 
power generation, by approximately 2020.  Energy industry 
watchers indicate that the planned phase-out will complicate 
Germany's quest to meet its ambitious CO2 emission reduction 
targets; a new study released by Deutsche Bank concludes that 
a nuclear phase-out could increase CO2 emissions by up to 40 
million tons by 2020, assuming coal power replaces the lost 
nuclear power.  With this in mind, Chancellor Merkel and her 
fellow CDU/CSU party members have called for a review of 
Germany's nuclear phase-out policy.  In contrast, SPD 
Chancellor candidate Steinmeier and Environment Minister 
Gabriel (SPD) in particular, strongly oppose any extension of 
the operating lives of nuclear power plants beyond the planned 
phase-out timeframe.  With national elections approaching, the 
nuclear power phase-out issue has generated heated debate that 
touches on Germany's climate change policy, energy profile and 
nuclear safety record.  END SUMMARY 
 
Nuclear Power and the Election 
------------------------------ 
 
¶2. (U) Nuclear energy is an issue that divides Germany's 
political parties and public, and as voters head to the polls 
for national elections on September 27, the issue has come to 
figure prominently in political party platforms.  Proponents, 
such as the Social Democrats (SPD) and Green Party strongly 
support a phase-out of nuclear power.  Environment Minister 
Gabriel (SPD) has called nuclear energy "dinosaur technology" 
that can only impede innovation and investment in the green 
technologies he believes will move Germany forward and even 
pull it out of the recession. 
 
¶3. (U) The Christian Democrats/Social Union (CDU/CSU) and Free 
Democrats (FDP) generally accept nuclear power as a necessary 
contributor to Germany's energy supply and generally oppose 
the nuclear phase-out policy.  The FDP party platform states: 
"The move away from nuclear energy at this point in time is 
economically and ecologically untenable.  We need nuclear 
energy as a bridging technology.  The life-cycles of safe 
nuclear plants must therefore be extended."  The CDU platform 
cites the 150 million tons of CO2 spared yearly by the use of 
nuclear energy as a reason to keep nuclear power in the mix. 
 
¶4. (U) According to a recent Forsa poll, 29 percent of Germans 
believe that nuclear energy issues will play a major or very 
major role in their voting decision, with over half of all 
polled favoring continuing or expediting the nuclear phase- 
out.  A series of recent nuclear plant malfunctions and 
incidents have provided ammunition to those supporting a 
nuclear-free Germany.  However, the views of scientists and 
energy industry experts that a phase-out of nuclear power will 
complicate Germany's CO2 emission reduction goals are 
receiving increasing attention. 
 
 
Nuclear Plant Incidents Put Nuclear Energy in the Spotlight 
------------------------------ 
 
¶5. (U) Several recent incidents, three plant malfunctions and 
a nuclear waste leak, have served to heighten the debate over 
the future of nuclear energy in Germany.  The first incident 
was the emergency shut down of the trouble-prone nuclear plant 
at Kruemmel near Hamburg on July 4th.  The Vattenfall plant, 
which had been closed for two years following a fire in a 
transformer, ran for only two weeks before a short-circuit 
caused this most recent shut-down.  Environment Minister 
Sigmar Gabriel (SPD) jumped to criticize nuclear energy 
following this incident, saying: "The most recent incidents at 
Kruemmel show that extending the lifetimes of older nuclear 
plants is irresponsible."  The second incident was the 
discovery of a radioactive water leak in the salt mine shafts 
of the Asse II waste storage facility.  And on July 24, two 
more reactors were shut down for minor malfunctions, one in 
Lingen in Northwest Germany and one in Phillipsburg in 
Southwest Germany.  Minister Gabriel called the events 
"extraordinarily disturbing" and reiterated his lack of 
confidence in the safety of nuclear power.  CDU Research 
Minister Schavan countered with a warning against "demonizing" 
nuclear energy, saying that using these incidents for 
 
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propaganda was irresponsible. 
 
 
Nuclear Phase-out and Germany's CO2 Emissions Targets 
------------------------------ 
 
¶6. (U) There are 17 nuclear power plants in Germany that 
produce 21 GW of electricity, 23 percent of Germany's total. 
All must be phased out by 2020 under the law passed by the 
previous SPD and Green government in 2002.  The plan calls for 
seven nuclear plants, producing 7 GW of electricity, to be 
taken off line by 2013.  These 7 plants account for 35 percent 
of Germany's current nuclear capacity and 8 percent of 
Germany's current total reliable capacity.  The remaining ten 
nuclear plants are to be phased out between 2014 and 2023. 
Although supporters of the nuclear phase-out have argued that 
the lost capacity will be replaced by renewable and clean 
energy sources, studies show that coal-fired plants are the 
most realistic substitute, given the existing lack of 
alternatives capable of producing the required power. 
 
¶7. (U) The Deutsche Bank study estimates that replacing 
nuclear power with coal-fired plants will increase CO2 
emissions by 6 to 30 million tons by 2013, depending on the 
technology used, with around 15 million tons most likely. 
This is equivalent to approximately 1.5 percent of Germany's 
total 2006 greenhouse gas emissions.  By 2020, the elimination 
of nuclear power would increase CO2 emissions between 14 and 
62 million tons, with the most likely scenario being 37 
million tons, or approximately 4 percent of total German 
emissions as of 2006. 
 
¶8. (U) The official German commitment to the EU is a 30 
percent reduction in greenhouse gas emissions from 1990 levels 
by 2020, but Germany has set a more ambitious domestic goal of 
a 40 percent reduction.  The increase in CO2 emissions 
resulting from the nuclear phase-out will make it more 
difficult for Germany to reach either of these goals.  The 37 
million ton reduction of CO2 emissions resulting from the 
proposed nuclear moratorium by 2020 is three percent of 
Germany's 1990 greenhouse gas emissions.  An Environment 
Ministry study predicts that the current national mitigation 
plan, called the "Meseberg Package", will result in 35 percent 
reduction of emissions from 1990 levels by 2020.  The 5 
percent difference between this and the targeted 40 percent 
was to be achieved by state and local-level measures, but 
remains unspecified in some cases.  The additional 3 percent 
increase in emissions incurred by abandoning nuclear energy 
will add to this challenge, making the discrepancy 8 percent. 
Other studies suggest that the gap between the stated target 
and estimates for what can realistically be achieved by 2020 
is even more significant. 
 
 
Election Outcome Scenarios on Nuclear Power and Emissions 
------------------------------ 
 
¶9. (U) With 7 nuclear plants scheduled to be phased out under 
the existing agreement by 2013, any new government will need 
to make difficult decisions regarding the future of nuclear 
power in Germany.  The latest polling data suggest that the 
CDU/CSU and FDP will receive enough support to form the next 
government, which might seek to overturn the nuclear phase-out 
legislation and extend the life of nuclear plants.  Should the 
CDU/CSU prove unable to form a governing coalition with their 
favored partner, the FDP, then a continuation of the existing 
grand coalition is likely, with the SPD presumably making a 
continuation of the nuclear phase-out a pre-condition.  Should 
the Green Party join a governing coalition, the party is on 
record as insisting on maintaining the nuclear phase-out. 
 
¶10. (U) Germany has already achieved its greenhouse gas 
emission reduction targets as required under the Kyoto 
Protocol and is generally on track to meet its European Union 
goal under current conditions.  However, a phase-out of 
nuclear power would make it difficult for Germany to meet its 
domestic reduction goal of 40 percent by 2020.  Achieving this 
goal is important for German maintenance of its reputation as 
a leader in addressing climate change and in positioning 
itself for the climate negotiations in Copenhagen.  Copenhagen 
climate negotiators will be watching Germany's election 
 
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results closely to see how the victors approach the nuclear 
phase-out issue. 
 
 
Bradtke