VZCZCXRO3948
PP RUEHAG RUEHAST RUEHDA RUEHDBU RUEHDF RUEHFL RUEHIK RUEHKW RUEHLA
RUEHLN RUEHLZ RUEHNP RUEHPOD RUEHROV RUEHSK RUEHSL RUEHSR RUEHVK
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DE RUEHBW #0791/01 2160702
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P R 040704Z AUG 09
FM AMEMBASSY BELGRADE
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 0122
INFO EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
RHEHAAA/NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL WASHINGTON DC
RHMFISS/HQ USEUCOM VAIHINGEN GE
RUEHBW/AMEMBASSY BELGRADE
RUZEJAA/JAC MOLESWORTH RAF MOLESWORTH UK

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 BELGRADE 000791 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
DEPT FOR EUR/SCE (P. PETERSON) 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL SR
SUBJECT: SERBIA: MEDIA LAW THREATENS COALITION STABILITY 
 
REF: BELGRADE 511 
 
Summary 
------- 
 
¶1.  (SBU) The Serbian Assembly recessed for August on July 30, just 
one day before it was to vote on a slate of laws, including the 
controversial Information Law written by G-17 Plus.  Government 
officials confirmed to us that the recess was the result of an 
agreement to postpone a showdown between G-17 Plus, which had 
threatened to walk out of the government if the law did not pass, and 
the Socialist Party of Serbia, which insisted it would not vote for 
the "Milosevic-era" law.  Two journalists' associations, among 
others, have criticized the law for posing onerous fines for 
"slander," which is poorly defined in the bill.  While the government 
has averted a crisis for the time being, when the Assembly resumes on 
August 31, it will still have to deal with an issue that threatens to 
bring down the current ruling coalition.  Although the government 
continues to operate in a state of confusion, the chaos is preferable 
to the alternative - a government including the nationalist Serbian 
Progressive Party.  The government and the Liberal Democratic Party, 
which brokered the agreement, seem to have worked hard to avoid that 
possibility.  While the situation may seem untenable, new elections 
remain unlikely in the near term.  Serbia's insatiable appetite for 
drama and tolerance for chaos make eruptions such as the information 
law crisis more the rule than the exception.  In the end, the specter 
of Nikolic and his Progressives (backed by Serbia's Nosferatu - 
former Prime Minister Vojislav Kostunica) ended up reinforcing the 
coalition's resolve to not dissolve.  End Summary. 
 
National Assembly Ends Session without Voting 
--------------------------------------------- 
 
¶2.  (U) The National Assembly, which has spent the last few weeks, 
including weekends, debating 24 laws which were to be voted on July 
31, instead adjourned July 30, postponing the votes until August 31. 
Assembly Speaker Slavica Djukic-Dejanovic (Socialist Party of Serbia 
- SPS) told the press on July 31 that she called the recess because 
the MPs had been working hard and needed a holiday.  Media, however, 
speculated that the vote was postponed in order to avoid a 
confrontation over the controversial Information Law, since coalition 
members G-17 Plus and SPS were at odds over the law.  While 
Djukic-Dejanovic publicly denied this, observers noted that coalition 
member G-17 Plus had threatened to walk out of the government if the 
law were not passed whereas fellow coalition member SPS insisted it 
would not vote for the law.  G-17 Plus issued a public statement July 
31 denying it had made such a threat and accusing the SPS of trying 
to destabilize the government by postponing the vote on the 24 laws. 
 
 
¶3. (SBU) Government ministers confirmed for us privately that the 
Information Law had shaken the government coalition.  Labor Minister 
and Sandzak Democratic Party (SDP) president Rasim Ljajic (protect) 
told the Charge July 31 that the government almost fell over the 
Information Law, since G-17 Plus head Mladjan Dinkic insisted on the 
law.  Ljajic said that, had the government collapsed, new elections 
would most likely have brought the Serbian Progressive Party (SNS) 
into the government, judging by the party's success in recent 
municipal elections (reftel), which would have been a disaster.  SPS 
head Ivica Dacic also told the Charge July 31 that the dispute over 
the Information Law had caused instability in the government. 
Dinkic, who wrote the bill, had insisted that SPS vote for it, and 
SPS was willing to abstain in order to achieve a quorum and not vote 
against the law but would go no further, according to Dacic.  Dacic 
said opposition Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) had stepped in to 
mediate the dispute July 30 and had suggested to the Democratic Party 
and G-17 Plus that the Assembly recess in order to prevent the 
government from falling, although Dinkic had initially resisted the 
suggestion.  Dacic also said new elections at this time would have 
been a mistake because SNS would then have a role the next 
government. 
 
Critics: Law Resembles Milosevic-Era Law 
---------------------------------------- 
 
¶4.  (SBU) Critics, including the Independent Journalists' Association 
of Serbia (NUNS) and the Journalists' Association of Serbia (UNS) 
criticized the law for including extremely high fines for slander and 
for requiring media outlets to keep a large reserve for the payment 
of future fines.  These requirements would be difficult or impossible 
for smaller media outlets and put any outlet out of business if it 
received fines.  Furthermore, the law loosely defined slander, 
meaning journalists would have no idea what kinds of statements would 
result in fines.  Critics noted that the law would not meet European 
 
BELGRADE 00000791  002 OF 002 
 
 
Union standards as drafted and would have to be amended during the 
accession process.  While proponents of the law said it was needed to 
keep the tabloid press from publishing false stories, including 
stories naming the minor children of public individuals, critics 
compared the bill to the Milosevic-era information law.  Dacic, who 
was Milosevic's spokesman in 1990s, was emphatic that SPS would not 
vote for the law, saying, "not even a firing squad could have made me 
vote for that law," Dacic said, "I lived through a law like that 
during Milosvic and we will never return to that dark place, I will 
never do that again." 
 
What Happens Next 
----------------- 
 
¶5.  (U) How the Assembly will proceed with the Information Law after 
the August recess is unclear.  Suzana Grubjesic from G-17 Plus told 
media that the Assembly would pass the Information Law in its current 
form when it reconvened August 31, per the agreement with DS and LDP. 
LDP MP Zoran Ostojic made a statement July 30 that LDP wanted to 
consult journalist associations, the Council of Europe, and the EU on 
possible amendments to the law.  DS made similar references to 
possible amendments before a vote.  SNS deputy head Aleksandar Vucic 
said it was clear the government had no idea what it would do, that 
the government was falling apart, and therefore there should be new 
elections. 
 
Comment 
-------- 
 
¶6.     (SBU) The government's current fumbling of the Information Law 
highlights the fragility of the governing coalition.  The only party 
who would gain from the fall of the current government would be 
Nikolic's SNS, and ultimately their allies, former Prime Minsiter 
Vojislav Kostunica and his Democratic Party of Serbia (DSS).  That 
said, some in Tadic's DS appear willing to consider risking the 
possible consequences of an election in the middle of the economic 
crisis in an effort to simplify the coalition politics of the 
existing fourteen member coalition.  With tolerance for chaos a 
lifestyle for Serbian politicians, the drama surrounding this episode 
may become the norm for remaining three years of the coalition's 
mandate.  Further deterioration of the economic environment may 
further complicate the Assembly's work by the time it reconvenes, a 
factor that could either make it more difficult to push the law 
through or could lead to its passage being ignored while citizens 
focus on their lack of well-being.  End Comment. 
BRUSH