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RR RUEHBZ RUEHDU RUEHGI RUEHJO RUEHMA RUEHMR RUEHPA RUEHRN RUEHTRO
DE RUEHAN #0615/01 2400904
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 280904Z AUG 09
FM AMEMBASSY ANTANANARIVO
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 2783
INFO RUEHZO/AFRICAN UNION COLLECTIVE
RHMFISS/CDR USAFRICOM STUTTGART GE
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 ANTANANARIVO 000615 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR AF/E - MBEYZEROV 
PARIS FOR RKANEDA 
LONDON FOR PLORD 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL ECON MA
SUBJECT: ANTANANARIVO POL/ECON WEEKLY UPDATE 
 
REF: A) 09 ANTANANARIVO 604, B) 09 ANTANANARIVO 607, C) 09 
ANTANANARIVO 613 
 
¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY: This is U.S. Embassy Antananarivo's Weekly Update 
for the week of August 24 to 28, an unclassified review of major 
political, economic, and commercial events and information from the 
U.S. Mission to Madagascar and the Comoros. END SUMMARY. 
 
POLITICS 
-------- 
 
¶2. (SBU) POLITICIANS REMAIN DEADLOCKED: Three days of talks among 
Madagascar's Big Four political leaders ended with no agreement on 
the key position of transition president.  Current President of the 
High Transitional Authority (HAT) Andry Rajoelina, installed after a 
military coup in March 2009, insisted that he and his Prime 
Minister, Roindefo Monja, keep their jobs.  Ousted President Marc 
Ravalomanana was unwilling to "legitimize a coup", and this round of 
talks was formally ended on the morning of August 28.  Rajoelina has 
returned to Madagascar, requesting time (until September 4) to 
"consult" with other political parties about breaking up the 
Rajoelina/Monja tandem.  Septel to follow with more information and 
analysis. 
 
¶3. (SBU) POLITICS ON HOLD: Due to the overlap with the Maputo II 
negotiations, the HAT's unilateral National Conference, scheduled 
for August 24-28, was postponed.  However, Blanche Nirina Richard, 
National Coordinator for the HAT regional and national conferences 
(CSR-AN), recently announced that decisions from the June "Regional 
Meetings" are "the people's aspirations, and should not be ignored", 
although any eventual success at the negotiation table will likely 
supersede the HAT's efforts on constitutional reforms or transition 
planning.  Also delayed was election of 192 Fokontany (district) 
Chiefs in the capital, scheduled for this weekend.  Officially, they 
were postponed by the Prefet de Police of Antananarivo to avoid 
distracting from the negotiations in Maputo, but it is widely 
believed that the current chiefs, appointed by the HAT, are 
unwilling to cede their places before December's 
previously-scheduled elections. 
 
¶4. (SBU) EDGARD RAZAFINDRAVAHY HEADS TANA GOVERNMENT: Edgard 
Razafindravahy replaced Michele Ratsivalaka as President de 
Delegation Speciale (PDS - equivalent to appointed mayor) of Tana in 
early August, giving the wealthy businessman a visible platform for 
the beginnings of a political career - right where Ravalomanana and 
Rajoelina got their start.  This takes him out of the game for the 
transition period, but permits him to gain exposure and experience 
before an eventual presidential campaign.  Ratsivalaka was made an 
advisor to the HAT, but the hasty move was most likely to save face 
after her replacement in the city government. 
 
¶5. (SBU) PRISONERS RELEASED: All but three of the high profile 
prisoners of concern have been released in recent weeks.  Those 
remaining are two colonels arrested with Ravalomanana's PM Manandafy 
Rakotonirina in April, as well as Ralitera Andrianandraina, former 
head of security at the High Constitutional Court (HCC).  Of those 
who have been released, none have benefitted from the 
straightforward "immediate release" foreseen in Maputo I.  First out 
were the four accused of complicity in recent bombings, although 
their case is still open; they spent almost a month in jail, and had 
never been charged.  Ihanta Randriamandrato, head of the Legalist 
Women, has been "conditionally released" (on her own recognizance) 
pending her trial.  The four members of parliament arrested in April 
were released with a 1-year suspended sentence, which they intend to 
appeal.  Manandafy Rakotonirina was released last, on August 24, 
just in time to join the pro-Ravalomanana delegation headed to 
Maputo. 
 
¶6. (SBU) All but the four members of parliament were forced to sign 
a letter committing to abide by the terms of the Maputo I accords, 
although their respective parties denounced the move as unfair, and 
not in the spirit of the accords themselves.  Andrianandraina, of 
the HCC, was denied bail on August 21, as he was "not among the 
beneficiaries of the Maputo accords", according to the HAT Minister 
of Justice.  No news is available as to the status of the remaining 
three prisoners, and no other lower-profile prisoners have been 
released. 
 
ECONOMIC AND COMMERCIAL 
----------------------- 
 
¶7. (SBU) TIKO RICE LOOTED BY OFFICIALS: On March 30, the HAT created 
an Operational Unit ("Cellule operationnelle", or CO) tasked with 
collecting money from the sale of 34,000 tons of rice belonging to 
TIKO in Tamatave.  This money will be deposited to the Treasury to 
recover allegedly unpaid taxes from TIKO.  The HAT noted that at 
 
ANTANANARI 00000615  002 OF 002 
 
 
least 20,000 tons were smuggled by high ranking officials including 
army, mayors, and HAT members, and was sold at 500 ariary/kg (USD 
0.26) instead of 800 ariary/kg (USD 0.41).  On August 19, the HAT 
transferred the sale of the rice to the Ministry of Trade, who then 
alleged publicly on August 26 that that the CO is still smuggling 
the rice with the help of the port authorities, the regional 
government, and the army.  TIKO's lawyers have filed suit against 
the HAT, and the verdict is scheduled for August 28. 
 
¶8. (SBU) E-GOVERNANCE IMPLEMENTATION: On August 12, 2009, Minister 
of Telecommunications Augustin Andriamananoro officially launched 
the "IMAILAKA" project.  Thanks to the technical and financial 
assistance of the Indian government, the IMAILAKA project is part of 
the Pan Africa e-network aimed at linking 53 African countries by 
satellite or optical fiber.  The total cost of the project is USD 
130 million and it is intended to benefit telemedicine, e-governance 
and e-education services.  To implement the project, the Indian 
Government donated computers, decoders, and scanners to the 
Government of Madagascar. 
 
RECENT CABLES 
------------- 
 
¶9. (SBU) MADAGASCAR'S ECONOMIC PARTNERSHIP WITH EU UNDER THREAT 
(TANA 607): Madagascar signed an interim Economic Partnership 
Agreement (EPA) on December 11, 2007 and continues to enjoy trade 
preferences on its exports to the EU.  However, due to the ongoing 
political crisis in Madagascar, the de facto GOM will not be allowed 
to continue negotiation of the EPA, nor to sign another interim EPA 
on August 28.  A temporary waiver has been granted until the next 
EU/Malagasy political dialogue.  If the EU continues its suspension 
of cooperation in early November, the costs of Madagascar's exports 
to the EU may rise, adding another threat to the country's troubled 
economy. 
 
¶10. (SBU) LOW RICE PRICES COULD PRODUCE FUTURE SHORTAGE (TANA 613): 
The farm gate price of rice is 20 percent lower this year compared 
to 2008, dropping from MGA 500 to 400 (USD 0.26 to 0.21).  Several 
factors contributed to this decline, chief among them are increased 
productivity in 2008, reduced demand from the country's largest 
distributor (Tiko), and politically-motivated price caps imposed by 
the current transition government. 
 
 
STROMAYER