VZCZCXRO1423
RR RUEHBC RUEHDE RUEHDIR RUEHKUK RUEHTRO
DE RUEHAK #1185 2251410
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 131410Z AUG 09
FM AMEMBASSY ANKARA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 0513
INFO RUEHIT/AMCONSUL ISTANBUL 6158
RUCNIRA/IRAN COLLECTIVE

UNCLAS ANKARA 001185 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958:N/A 
TAGS: CVIS PREL PGOV PHUM SOCI SCUL TU IR
SUBJECT: Iran Election Outrage Muted For Time Being 
 
¶1.  (SBU) SUMMARY: A broad range of Iranian visa applicants 
interviewed in the past two weeks expressed that the public unrest 
in Iran has calmed, but hope outrage over the recent election in the 
long run will force Mahmoud Ahmadinejad out of office. As one 
Armenian middle aged couple stated, "this election has shattered the 
hopes that the Islamic Republic was at least in part democratic." 
END SUMMARY. 
 
¶2.  (SBU) The majority of our applicants in the past few weeks 
stated although the streets are much quieter, the situation in Iran 
continues to be unstable. Some applicants stated that they were not 
interested in the unrest and hoped that things would continue as 
before; however, most applicants continued to express anger over the 
election and hope for change. Many claimed that 99 percent of the 
population remains ready to oppose the status quo. Most believe that 
although the situation appears calm now, in the long run Ali 
Khamanei will have to relent. 
 
¶3.  (SBU) The volume of requests to Embassy Ankara for expedited IV 
appointments which increased during the height of the protests has 
subsided. Iranian applicants are still concerned about the security 
situation with many asking about their children's welfare. 
Applicants from Tehran, Shiraz, Gorgan, Mashhad and Isfahan all 
noted that protests have occurred but in much smaller numbers 
compared to the larger initial protests in the weeks after the 
election. A Kurd from West Azerbaijan noted that most Kurds are in 
opposition to the election results but due to their precarious 
minority status keep quiet. A couple of religious leaders 
interviewed preferred not to comment on the situation and insisted 
that people should speak with "softer words." 
 
¶4.  (SBU) A Tehran based female lawyer estimated that at most the 
protest size may be in the two to three thousand range. Applicants 
report that arrests, beatings and killings, especially of young 
Iranians, continue. Another Tehrani explained that his AMCIT fianc 
and he avoided the streets due to the prevalent use of tear gas to 
prevent large gatherings. Another applicant showed bruises on his 
hand and noted that two weeks ago in Tehran he and his friends 
protested, but were beaten so harshly that some of them were covered 
in blood. Many applicants accredit the relative calm in the past few 
weeks to the quick and harsh reaction to the planned protests by 
security forces. On the other hand, a former revolutionary guard 
draftee emphasized that only permanent members of the guard are 
loyal to Khamanei with most draftees opposed to the current regime. 
 
 
¶5.  (SBU) Based on various accounts it appears that most of the 
daily protesters are the Iranian youth. Many noted that the 
opposition has to find opportunities for officially sanctioned mass 
gatherings such as Friday prayers. According to one youth Ayatollah 
Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani was supposed to give tomorrow's Friday 
prayer sermon in Tehran, but Khamanei prevented this and put in a 
pro-regime cleric. Applicants report that Mir-Hossein Mousavi is not 
in custody but is under de-facto house arrest. Communication between 
Mousavi and the public is limited to his website. Many noted that 
public protest is difficult because as soon as there is an 
announcement, authorities arrive at the scene prior to the 
protesters. 
 
¶6.  (SBU) The majority of applicants still articulated hope that in 
the long run change will come out of the post election unrest. One 
Islamic Azad University student believes that the more Ahmadinejad 
continues to "mess up" the country the more the regime will suffer 
which will eventually force change. One applicant noted that though 
the streets are clear, every night thousands of Iranians continue to 
take to their rooftops and terraces and chant "God is great" in 
defiance of Khamanei. Many younger Iranians noted they were waiting 
for an opportunity to protest more. Some applicants opined that 
Mohammad Khatami, Mousavi, and Rafsanjani must continue their 
opposition or risk jail or worse. 
 
¶7.  (SBU) COMMENT: The general Iranian public continues to hope for 
change, but it appears that without more guidance from the 
opposition leadership current civil unrest is limited to small 
groups of Iranian youth. Only a handful of applicants believe that 
the current situation can revert to pre-election calm with the 
majority still holding onto the belief that the system must change. 
Despite the appearance of relative calm it appears unlikely that 
calm will return without the constant use of intimidation and 
force. 
 
¶8.  (SBU) Embassy Ankara has also experienced a number of unusual 
occurrences with visa applicants that may be related to stress 
resulting from the unrest in Iran. Within the past month, five 
Iranians passed out during their interviews. One returning resident 
applicant tried to kill himself when he was refused. The following 
Monday an Iranian, without an appointment, attempted to jump over 
the Embassy fence and nearly died of blood loss when he got caught 
in the razor wire. END COMMENT. 
 
SILLIMAN