VZCZCXYZ0008
RR RUEHWEB

DE RUEHIN #0977 2250703
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 130703Z AUG 09
FM AIT TAIPEI
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 2109
INFO RUEHBJ/AMEMBASSY BEIJING 9336
RUEHHK/AMCONSUL HONG KONG 0769

UNCLAS AIT TAIPEI 000977 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR INR/R/MR, EAP/TC, EAP/P, EAP/PD - NIDA EMMONS 
DEPARTMENT PASS AIT/WASHINGTON 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: OPRC KMDR KPAO TW
SUBJECT: MEDIA REACTION: U.S.-TAIWAN RELATIONS 
 
Summary:  On August 13, Taiwan's major Chinese-language dailies 
continued to give significant news and editorial coverage to the 
damage caused by Typhoon Morakot and the on-going rescue efforts in 
central and southern Taiwan.  In terms of editorials and 
commentaries, an op-ed in the mass-circulation Apple Daily discussed 
U.S. arms sales to Taiwan and the deteriorating military balance 
across the Taiwan Strait.  The article concluded that "while the Ma 
administration is concerned that Taiwan will be marginalized if the 
island is not tilting toward China, what we see is that during the 
process of tilting toward China, Taiwan will be quickly marginalized 
in terms of the collective security of East Asia."  End summary. 
 
"Taiwan Being Skipped over" 
 
Former DPP Legislator Lin Cho-shui opined in a column in the 
mass-circulation "Apple Daily" [circulation: 520,000] (8/13): 
 
"The U.S. Department of Defense reported lately that the military 
balance across the Taiwan Strait has been tipped in favor of China 
since 2000 and that Taiwan no longer has its edge for air warfare 
[starting in] 2009.  For Rand Corporation, a well-known U.S. think 
tank, the situation is even worse; [Rand] believes that China will 
have obtained overwhelming superiority in air warfare starting in 
2010, and that once an air fight breaks out in the Taiwan Strait, it 
'will basically be over' before the United States comes to 
[Taiwan's] rescue.  Given such a terrible situation, and despite the 
Ma administration's efforts in negotiating [with Washington], the 
United States still has not decided to sell F16 C/D fighter jets [to 
Taiwan], let alone the Aegis-class frigates.  The U.S. Congress, 
unable to tolerate it any more, passed a resolution demanding that 
the executive branch improve [the situation].  But still, the U.S. 
government appears to remain unmoved. ... 
 
"The mainstream view in Taipei is that Taiwan is originally a 
stronghold in the United States' containment policy.  Now that the 
United States has started a comprehensive strategic and economic 
dialogue with the rising China to work jointly in terms of the war 
on terrorism, non-proliferation and [both sides have agreed] to 
confront world economic and environmental issues, Washington will no 
longer adopt a containment [policy], so naturally it decides not to 
sell arms to Taiwan.  Such a view is shortsighted.  It goes without 
saying that the United States attaches great importance to the rise 
of China, but the strong aggressiveness that China has demonstrated 
in terms of its strategy is something against which Washington has 
to guard. ...  [Washington] started to take preventative moves 
[against China] starting with [former President George W.] Bush, and 
its course has remained unchanged even after [President Barack] 
Obama took office.  Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, as a result, 
emphasized lately that [the United States] wants to return to 
Southeast Asia. ... 
 
"Each country ranging from South Asia to East Asia, including the 
United States and Japan, is strengthening its military deployments 
to guard against China, and evidently, they have all skipped Taiwan. 
 The impact of Washington's decision to cease arms sales [to Taiwan] 
will be very profound.  Due to production [capacity] limits for some 
weapons systems, ... freezing arms sales to Taiwan now would mean 
that the United States has abandoned its planning for Taiwan's 
defense armaments for the foreseeable future.  The [military] 
imbalance across the Taiwan Strait will become a long-term 
[phenomenon] and the situation will only deteriorate.  As a result, 
while the Ma administration is concerned that Taiwan will be 
marginalized if the island is not tilted toward China, what we see 
is that during the process of tilting toward China, Taiwan will be 
quickly marginalized in terms of the collective security of East 
Asia. ..." 
 
WANG