VZCZCXRO4393
PP RUEHFK RUEHKSO RUEHNAG RUEHNH
DE RUEHKO #1671/01 2040707
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 230707Z JUL 09
FM AMEMBASSY TOKYO
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 4779
INFO RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC PRIORITY
RHEHAAA/THE WHITE HOUSE WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RUEAWJA/USDOJ WASHDC PRIORITY
RULSDMK/USDOT WASHDC PRIORITY
RUCPDOC/USDOC WASHDC PRIORITY
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC PRIORITY
RUEKJCS/JOINT STAFF WASHDC//J5//
RHHMUNA/HQ USPACOM HONOLULU HI
RHHMHBA/COMPACFLT PEARL HARBOR HI
RHMFIUU/HQ PACAF HICKAM AFB HI//CC/PA//
RHMFIUU/USFJ //J5/JO21//
RUYNAAC/COMNAVFORJAPAN YOKOSUKA JA
RUAYJAA/CTF 72
RUEHNH/AMCONSUL NAHA 7755
RUEHFK/AMCONSUL FUKUOKA 5426
RUEHOK/AMCONSUL OSAKA KOBE 9234
RUEHNAG/AMCONSUL NAGOYA 2912
RUEHKSO/AMCONSUL SAPPORO 5943
RUEHBJ/AMEMBASSY BEIJING 0018
RUEHUL/AMEMBASSY SEOUL 6660
RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK 6326

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 09 TOKYO 001671 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR E, P, EB, EAP/J, EAP/P, EAP/PD, PA; 
WHITE HOUSE/NSC/NEC; JUSTICE FOR STU CHEMTOB IN ANTI-TRUST DIVISION; 
TREASURY/OASIA/IMI/JAPAN; DEPT PASS USTR/PUBLIC AFFAIRS OFFICE; 
SECDEF FOR JCS-J-5/JAPAN, 
DASD/ISA/EAPR/JAPAN; DEPT PASS ELECTRONICALLY TO USDA 
FAS/ITP FOR SCHROETER; PACOM HONOLULU FOR PUBLIC DIPLOMACY ADVISOR; 
CINCPAC FLT/PA/ COMNAVFORJAPAN/PA. 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: OIIP KMDR KPAO PGOV PINR ECON ELAB JA
 
SUBJECT:  DAILY SUMMARY OF JAPANESE PRESS 07/23/09 
 
INDEX: 
 
(1) Simulation of Lower House election: Battle over 241 seats 
(Mainichi) 
 
(2) Lower House dissolution for general election: Economy, people's 
livelihoods, peace of mind are key words when voters choose between 
LDP or DPJ (Tokyo Shimbun) 
 
(3) LDP meltdown - 2009 Lower House election (Part 1): LDP as 
opposition becomes possibility (Sankei) 
 
(4) Wavering seen in DPJ's foreign policy (Okinawa Times) 
 
(5) Poll on general election (Tokyo Shimbun) 
 
ARTICLES: 
 
(1) Simulation of Lower House election: Battle over 241 seats 
 
MAINICHI (Page 3) (Full) 
July 23, 2009 
 
Fumie Ueno, Yu Takayama 
 
The campaign for the 45th House of Representatives election, with 
official declaration of candidacy set for August 18 and voting 
scheduled for August 30, has essentially begun. The main issue in 
the election is whether the government of the Liberal Democratic 
Party (LDP) and New Komeito will continue or whether a coalition 
government led by the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) will take 
over. The alignment of forces is divided into the LDP and New 
Komeito on one side and the DPJ, the Social Democratic Party (SDP), 
and the People's New Party (PNP) on the other. They will be fighting 
a battle to grab 241 seats, which will give them the majority in the 
480-seat Lower House, and 241 seats has been set as the criterion of 
victory. It is possible that both camps will be unable to win 241 
seats, in which case, the Japanese Communist Party (JCP) and the 
independents will hold the casting vote, and there will be 
maneuverings to form a majority. 
 
1) If LDP, New Komeito win majority: Administration sustained, 
"twisted Diet" continues 
 
The goal of the LDP and New Komeito, which is going into the Lower 
House election under adverse conditions, is to "keep the majority by 
the two parties and sustain the administration." (LDP Secretary 
General Hiroyuki Hosoda) While this is a standard of victory set 
considerably lower than the 334 seats they held at the time of the 
Lower House dissolution, these parties have a strong sense of 
crisis. They will look for opportunities to turn the tide in the 
longest ever campaign period -- 40 days - of all elections held 
under the present Constitution. 
 
LDP Election Strategy Council Vice Chairman Yoshihide Suga gave a 
speech in Yokohama on the evening of July 22, where he stressed 
that, "If we plead to the people openly and squarely, the ruling 
parties can win a majority." However, even if these two parties are 
able to retain a majority, the "twisted Diet," where the opposition 
controls the House of Councillors, will continue. It will be very 
difficult for the ruling parties to win over two-thirds of the seats 
- which they succeeded in doing in the Lower House election in 2005, 
 
TOKYO 00001671  002 OF 009 
 
 
when the LDP won a landslide victory. That win enabled them to pass 
bills (rejected by the Upper House) with a second overriding vote in 
the Lower House. If important bills are rejected one after the 
other, the administration may find itself in a stalemate. 
 
If the LDP-New Komeito administration continues after the Lower 
House election, a realignment of political forces is also possible, 
including a "grand coalition" with the DPJ or the recruitment of 
defectors from the ranks of opposition members of the Upper House. 
Certain LDP members pin their hope on collaborating with 
conservative DPJ Diet members, reckoning "if the DPJ fails to 
capture power, this party made up of a hodgepodge of political 
forces will disintegrate." (senior LDP official) 
 
2) DPJ, SDP, PNP win majority: DPJ opts for coalition government 
even with landslide victory 
 
 DPJ President Yukio Hatoyama talked about the party's goal at a 
news conference on July 21: "At the very least, to become the number 
one party, and to win a majority through cooperation among the 
opposition parties." The DPJ has declared its intention to form a 
coalition government with the SDP and the PNP after the Lower House 
election. Its criterion for victory will be winning 241 seats by the 
three parties. 
 
At the time of Diet dissolution, the three parties held a total of 
124 seats. They will have to win almost twice this number of seats 
to grab power. Mainichi Shimbun's nationwide public opinion poll 
(conducted on July 18 and 19) shows that 56 percent of the 
respondents want the DPJ to win the election. Some DPJ members hold 
the bullish view that the party "might be able to win over 250 seats 
single-handedly." (senior DPJ official) 
 
However, the situation in the Upper House remains that the DPJ, the 
SDP, and the PNP together are barely able to control a majority. 
Therefore, even if the DPJ is able to win a majority alone in the 
Lower House, it still intends to form a coalition with the SDP and 
the PNP. It appears that Hatoyama's setting "winning a majority by 
the opposition parties" as the criterion of victory is also out of 
consideration for the need to collaborate with the other parties. 
 
In addition, New Party Nippon leader Yasuo Tanaka and candidates 
endorsed by the DPJ outside the SDP and the PNP, such as independent 
Makiko Tanaka, are also expected to join the coalition if they get 
elected. In the end, these candidates will also be counted in the 
criterion of victory of 241 seats. 
 
3) Ruling, opposition parties evenly matched: JCP, independents to 
hold the key 
 
In case both the LDP-New Komeito camp and the three-party alliance 
of the DPJ, the SDP, and the PNP fail to win a majority and are 
evenly matched, the JCP and the independents are expected to hold 
the casting vote. At an interview with the media on July 21, JCP 
Chairman Kazuo Shii stated that his party "might vote for the DPJ" 
in the election of the prime minister after the election "in order 
not to prolong the LDP-New Komeito government," but this will be "on 
several conditions." 
 
The JCP envisions playing the role of a "constructive opposition 
party," meaning it will vote for DPJ President Hatoyama in the 
runoff vote for the prime minister, helping the election of "Prime 
 
TOKYO 00001671  003 OF 009 
 
 
Minister Hatoyama," but the party will not participate in the 
coalition government and will make demands of the DPJ to realize its 
policy proposals. In such a case, the DPJ-led coalition 
administration will be a minority government which will be unable to 
enact laws without opposition cooperation, rendering it very 
unstable. 
 
Both the LDP and the DPJ are also expected to work fiercely to win 
over politicians of the "third force," such as former Administrative 
Reform Minister Yoshimi Watanabe and former Minister of Economy, 
Trade, and Industry Takeo Hiranuma, who left the LDP, in order to 
form a majority. This process will have the potential of spawning a 
"grand coalition" of the LDP and the DPJ, mutual recruitment of 
defectors by both parties, or other forms of realignment of 
political forces. 
 
(2) Lower House dissolution for general election: Economy, people's 
livelihoods, peace of mind are key words when voters choose between 
LDP or DPJ 
 
TOKYO SHIMBUN (Page 9) (Excerpts) 
July 22, 2009 
 
The dissolution of the Lower House has effectively signaled the 
launch of election campaigning. Although the accelerating economic 
recession has entered a temporary lull, the employment situation is 
worsening. Economic stimulus measures will become the greatest bone 
of contention in the long campaign period. As people become 
increasingly dissatisfied, the key issues for voters when choosing 
between the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and the Democratic Party 
of Japan (DPJ) will likely be improvement of people's livelihoods 
and peace of mind. 
 
Pork-barrel spending noticeable: Gap in approaches to sales tax seen 
between ruling and opposition parties 
 
Public appeal 
 
Finance Minister Kaoru Yosano during a press conference held after a 
cabinet meeting on July 21 proudly noted the effects of the economic 
stimulus measures implemented under his initiative, "Based on an 
assessment of the current stage, the Aso administration's stimulus 
package is a success." 
 
The Aso administration was launched right after the failure of 
Lehman Brothers, a leading U.S. security house, in September last 
year. The administration has compiled four budgets, including extra 
budgets as stimulus measures. In particular, the size of the fiscal 
2009 budget was the largest ever, totaling roughly 14 trillion yen. 
The government in July revised upward its overall assessment of the 
economy for the third consecutive month, citing that personal 
consumption has picked up due to a tax break for 
environmentally-friendly cars, the showcase of the package, and the 
effect of assistance for the purchases of environmentally-friendly 
home electronic appliances. 
 
Some market players said that making a bullish assessment amid a 
rising jobless rate is premature. However, the government is making 
a frantic effort to demonstrate the administration's accomplishments 
to the public. 
 
Acrimonious exchanges 
 
TOKYO 00001671  004 OF 009 
 
 
 
Blasting the series of stimulus measures taken by the government as 
pork-barrel largesse, the DPJ intends to take a second look at 
budget request guidelines, which indicate a general framework for 
the fiscal 2010 budget. 
 
However, a number of the proposals that the DPJ is going to include 
in its manifesto are also pork-barrel largesse. The amount needed to 
finance its policy proposals - child allowances of 26,000 yen per 
month, toll-free highways, free high school education, and abolition 
of the provisional gas tax - comes to between 16 trillion yen and 17 
trillion yen. The DPJ says that it will secure fiscal resources by 
recombining budget items and reforming the way tax money is used. 
The ruling parties are criticizing the DPJ's plan as mere fantasy. 
 
Dire straits 
 
As a result of the extensive public spending repeatedly implemented 
by the Aso administration, fiscal reconstruction and spending 
reform, the symbols of the Koiuzmi reform, have been put on hold. 
 
The long-term outstanding debt held by the central and local 
governments is estimated to reach 816 trillion yen as of the end of 
fiscal 2009. Its share in the gross domestic product (GDP) stands at 
approximately 170 PERCENT , the worst level among developed 
countries. 
 
Vice Finance Minister Tango, who served as secretary to former Prime 
Minister Koizumi, accepted unprecedented measures, saying, "They are 
necessary in order to deal with an unanticipated challenge." 
However, future generations will be forced to pick up the bill for 
mountains of loans. 
 
Even if stimulus packages are settled for the time being, securing 
stable fiscal resources to finance social security spending is bound 
to become a challenge. The natural increase in social security 
spending will be as much as 1 trillion yen a year. If there are no 
fiscal resources to finance that amount, it will have to be covered 
by loans. 
 
Prime Minister Taro Aso on the 21st stressed the need to raise the 
sales tax. However, a tax increase must be premised on economic 
recovery. It is unclear when the economy will turn around. The DPJ's 
policy is not to raise the sales tax for four years. 
 
Taking immediate stimulus measures is important. However, it is an 
unavoidable challenge for Japan, which has entered the age of a 
declining birthrate and a rapidly aging society, to take a second 
look at social security and the tax system. All political parties 
need to squarely face the challenge of formulating policies, even if 
they are painful for voters. 
 
(3) LDP meltdown - 2009 Lower House election (Part 1): LDP as 
opposition becomes possibility 
 
SANKEI (Top play) (Abridged slightly) 
July 22, 2009 
 
Fumito Ishibashi 
 
"I have only one wish. I hope that all of the candidates for the 
Lower House general election present today will be able to come back 
 
TOKYO 00001671  005 OF 009 
 
 
here again," Prime Minister Aso said with tears in his eyes in a 
meeting of all the LDP Diet members held at noon on July 21 on the 
ninth floor of the Liberal Democratic Party's (LDP) headquarters. 
Pressed by anti-Aso forces, the LDP leadership held the meeting, but 
contrary to expectations, almost no critical views on Aso were 
raised. Since Aso had been concerned that the meeting would become a 
venue for the LDP to disgrace itself in public, he appeared to be 
delighted with the outcome. 
 
The party headquarters was filled with tension until immediately 
before the opening of the meeting. If the pro- and anti-Aso forces 
clashed head-on with each other in the meeting, there would be a 
risk of the LDP entering the election split into two groups. For 
that reason, Aso started his speech in a serious manner, saying: 
 
"Before expressing my determination and readiness for a Lower House 
dissolution, I have to offer my apology. I am deeply sorry for my 
statements and the flip-flops that triggered public anxiety and 
distrust in politics, resulting in the drop in the LDP's support 
rate." 
 
Referring to the LDP's six consecutive losses in the recent local 
elections, Aso said: "That's because of my lack of ability," and 
continued: 
 
"The LDP is a truly conservative party. We are like-minded persons 
gathered under the conservative ideal. Now is the time for us to 
demonstrate the LDP's potential cultivated through history and 
tradition. Let us overcome this national crisis." 
 
His remarks set the current of the meeting. LDP members praised Aso 
in succession. Makoto Koga, who recently resigned as chairman of the 
LDP Election Strategy Council, raised his voice: "Let's go forth 
today to the battle fields or election districts!" 
 
Another reason for the calming down of the drive to oust Aso is that 
LDP lawmakers supporting the move to unseat Aso came under severe 
criticism from LDP supporters who have been fed up with the 
political brouhaha in the LDP. 
 
Also at a meeting of the LDP Lower House members immediately before 
the Lower House plenary session, tensions ran high for a moment when 
former Secretary General Hidenao Nakagawa, who directly urged Aso to 
step down, raised his hand and took the podium to speak. Nakagawa, 
however, said in a calm voice: "The Prime Minister's speech today 
was very good. We will accept the Prime Minister's resolution with 
grace and fight in the election with party unanimity." Nakagawa 
offered his hand to Aso. 
 
Asp lost his temper when he was asked a question by a reporter, 
replying: "Do you think I will easily answer a question that is 
premised on a defeat in the election? We are now about to fight in 
the election. We will do anything we can do to win the election." 
 
The reporters tenaciously asked him how he would take responsibility 
if the ruling coalition loses a majority of the Lower House. Since a 
strong adverse wind is blowing against the LDP, the possibility of 
the party becoming an opposition party is moving closer to reality. 
Why did Aso dissolve the Lower House at the risk of defeat? 
 
The only possible reason is that he predicted that if the LDP went 
into the general election after he resigned and a new president were 
 
TOKYO 00001671  006 OF 009 
 
 
elected, there would be a strong possibility that the LDP would 
split. He thought that he could protect the LDP if he took 
responsibility by dissolving the chamber, since the chances were 
slim that the LDP would win under the leadership of a new 
president. 
 
It is difficult for the LDP to reach a consensus even on foreign and 
security policy. LDP members only care about the results of public 
opinion polls. Many lawmakers think only about what action will be 
most advantageous for them. 
 
Leaders of the anti-Aso movement, including former Secretary General 
Tsutomu Takebe, received LDP recognition letters from Aso and took 
photos with him. Witnessing their complete change, Aso gave a wry 
smile. 
 
At a press conference yesterday, Aso stressed: 
 
"I will ask the people to focus on which party can fulfill its 
responsibility. If I fail to keep my promise, I will take 
responsibility. In order to fulfill my political responsibility, I 
will risk my political life to fight in the election. 
 
Aso's "declaration of war" against the Democratic Party of Japan 
(DPJ) questioned the LDP's pride as administrative party. 
 
(4) Wavering seen in DPJ's foreign policy 
 
OKINAWA TIMES (Page 2) (Full) 
July 23, 2009 
 
2009 House of Representatives Election Reporting Team 
 
Senior U.S. government officials and Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) 
Diet members had dinner at a Japanese restaurant in Akasaka, Tokyo, 
in mid-June. One Diet member said repeatedly: "You don't have to 
worry when we take over the administration. We will come up with 
acceptable policies for sure," trying to alleviate the U.S. side's 
concerns about DPJ policy. 
 
Equal relations with the U.S. 
 
The U.S. side has so far rejected all the DPJ's demands - relocation 
of the U.S. forces' Futenma Air Station outside of Okinawa, review 
of the U.S. Forces Japan realignment plans, and revision of the 
Japan-U.S. Status of Forces Agreement (SOFA). 
 
On the other hand, the DPJ has also been seen to be "wavering" in 
its foreign policy, with President Yukio Hatoyama indicating that 
the Maritime Self-Defense Force refueling mission in the Indian 
Ocean will continue for the time being after the change of 
administration, for instance. 
 
On the early evening of July 19, Hatoyama told the audience at the 
Okinawa City Auditorium: "At least, if you (the Okinawan people) are 
united in your wish for relocation outside the prefecture, we will 
have to take positive action in that direction." 
 
In reaction to this, a senior Ministry of Defense (MOD) official 
chuckles: "He has set the condition of 'if the Okinawan people are 
united in their wish' for the first time. My impression is that with 
the assumption of power fast approaching, (the DPJ) is retreating 
 
TOKYO 00001671  007 OF 009 
 
 
little by little." The U.S. has been pressuring the DPJ since late 
2008, telling it that the U.S. side will not agree to policy change. 
This MOD official is optimistic that, "Unmistakably, the pressure 
has worked. I don't think there will be any major change in security 
policy." 
 
However, a mid-ranking DPJ Diet member denies this: "Our position on 
various issues will remain unchanged after taking over the 
administration. If we change our position, the people will criticize 
us for 'merely mouthing good words'." 
 
This is based on the perception: "It is impossible to take a 
confrontational attitude toward the U.S. and turn things upside down 
overnight. We aim to be an equal negotiating partner and change 
things gradually" (same source). Foreign and defense policies will 
mostly not be included in the DPJ's manifesto (campaign pledges) to 
be published shortly. The above Diet member explains that: "Detailed 
explanation is necessary in this area. Short, unclear phrases will 
rather give rise to misunderstanding," so such policies will be 
written into an annotation document accompanying the manifesto. 
 
Policy on Futenma to be watched 
 
With regard to the relocation of Futenma outside the prefecture, a 
senior Okinawa Prefectural Government official is furious: "It is 
irresponsible (to talk about that) without even offering a concrete 
alternative plan." "The fastest way to the return of Futenma is to 
relocate to Nago, which is willing to accept the facility." He 
doubts the feasibility of relocation outside the prefecture. 
 
Even Nago, the relocation site, is cautious about this proposal. 
Nago Mayor Yoshikazu Shimabukuro points out: "There is no concrete 
proposal on where to move the facility. I think this will be 
difficult to implement." Yasumasa Oshiro, head of Henoko district, 
is also doubtful: "It would be best if the facility were not brought 
here, but is it possible (to overturn) an agreement between Japan 
and U.S. just because the administration has changed?" 
 
An opposition Nago city assembly member who is against the 
relocation says: "I have hopes for relocation outside Okinawa with 
the change of administration, but this will not be easy to 
accomplish." He intends to watch moves in the DPJ. 
 
(5) Poll on general election 
 
TOKYO SHIMBUN (Page 2) (Full) 
July 20, 2009 
 
Questions & Answers 
(Figures shown in percentage) 
 
Q: To what extent are you interested in the forthcoming general 
election for the House of Representatives? 
 
Very interested 44.1 
Somewhat interested 38.7 
Not very interested 13.2 
Not interested at all 3.9 
Don't know (D/K) + no answer (N/A) 0.1 
 
Q: Which political party's candidate are you going to vote for in 
your single-seat constituency in the general election? 
 
TOKYO 00001671  008 OF 009 
 
 
 
Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) 16.1 
Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ or Minshuto) 34.1 
New Komeito (NK) 2.8 
Japanese Communist Party (JCP) 2.1 
Social Democratic Party (SDP or Shaminto) 0.9 
People's New Party (PNP or Kokumin Shinto) 0.1 
Reform Club (RC or Kaikaku Kurabu) --- 
New Party Nippon (NPN or Shinto Nippon) --- 
Other political parties, groups --- 
Independent candidate 1.7 
None 3.6 
Undecided 37.5 
D/K+N/A 1.1 
 
Q: Which political party are you going to vote for in your 
proportional representation bloc? 
 
LDP 15.6 
DPJ 36.2 
NK 4.2 
JCP 3.4 
SDP 1.2 
PNP 0.1 
RC --- 
NPN --- 
Other political parties, groups --- 
None 3.4 
Undecided 34.7 
D/K+N/A 1.2 
 
Q: What do you weigh the most when you vote in the general 
election? 
 
Social security, such as pension and healthcare 40.9 
Economy, job security 30.7 
Taxation, such as consumption tax 8.4 
Decentralization, administrative reform 6.9 
Constitutional reform 1.9 
Foreign relations, national security 2.3 
Politics and money 4.4 
Political heredity 1.2 
Other answers 0.6 
D/K+N/A 2.7 
 
Q: Are you going to vote in the forthcoming election? 
 
Yes for sure (including early voting) 75.4 
Yes if possible 21.1 
No 3.0 
D/K+N/A 0.5 
 
Q: What form of government would you like to see after the next 
general election? 
 
LDP-led coalition government 14.8 
DPJ-led coalition government 39.3 
LDP-DPJ grand coalition 16.7 
New framework through political realignment 20.8 
D/K+N/A 8.4 
 
Q: When comparing Prime Minister Taro Aso and DPJ President Yukio 
 
TOKYO 00001671  009 OF 009 
 
 
Hatoyama, who do you think is more appropriate for prime minister? 
 
Taro Aso 21.0 
Yukio Hatoyama 48.4 
D/K+N/A 30.6 
 
Q: Is there a political party you usually support? 
 
Yes 32.1 
No 67.1 
D/K+N/A 0.8 
 
Q: (Only for those who answered "yes" to the foregoing question) 
Then, which political party do you support? 
 
LDP 47.8 
DPJ 31.0 
NK 8.9 
JCP 5.7 
SDP 3.8 
PNP 0.1 
RC --- 
NPN --- 
Other political parties, groups --- 
D/K+N/A 2.7 
 
Q: (Only for those who answered "no" to the foregoing question) If 
you were to support a political party, which political party would 
you like to choose? 
 
LDP 18.0 
DPJ 43.1 
NK 1.8 
JCP 2.7 
SDP 1.4 
PNP 0.3 
RC 0.2 
NPN --- 
Other political parties, groups --- 
Still none 31.4 
D/K+N/A 1.1 
 
Q: Do you support the Aso cabinet? 
 
Yes 20.6 
No 72.8 
D/K+N/A 6.6 
 
Polling methodology: This survey was conducted across the nation on 
July 18-19 by Kyodo News Service on a computer-aided random digit 
dialing (RDD) basis. Among randomly generated telephone numbers, 
those actually for household use with one or more eligible voters 
totaled 1,766. Answers were obtained from 1,243 persons. 
 
ZUMWALT