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UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 20 TOKYO 001659 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR E, P, EB, EAP/J, EAP/P, EAP/PD, PA; 
WHITE HOUSE/NSC/NEC; JUSTICE FOR STU CHEMTOB IN ANTI-TRUST DIVISION; 
TREASURY/OASIA/IMI/JAPAN; DEPT PASS USTR/PUBLIC AFFAIRS OFFICE; 
SECDEF FOR JCS-J-5/JAPAN, 
DASD/ISA/EAPR/JAPAN; DEPT PASS ELECTRONICALLY TO USDA 
FAS/ITP FOR SCHROETER; PACOM HONOLULU FOR PUBLIC DIPLOMACY ADVISOR; 
CINCPAC FLT/PA/ COMNAVFORJAPAN/PA. 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: OIIP KMDR KPAO PGOV PINR ECON ELAB JA
 
SUBJECT:  DAILY SUMMARY OF JAPANESE PRESS 07/22/09 
 
INDEX: 
 
(1) Simulation of post-election scenarios: Who will have the 
majority of seats in the Lower House? (Tokyo Shimbun) 
 
(3) Government framework in limbo: Independents hold the key; major 
realignment possible (Nikkei) 
 
(2) Business leaders unofficially contacting DPJ members (Tokyo 
Shimbun) 
 
(3) Unusually long 40-day election campaign effectively kicks off 
(Nikkei) 
 
(4) DPJ's aim to break away from bureaucratic control, while moving 
to Kantei-led budget compilation system could be source of trouble 
(Nikkei) 
 
(5) Interview with former prime minister Nakasone: DPJ getting boost 
with people becoming tired of LDP (Yomiuri) 
 
(6) "Seiron" column: The price of a rare "success story" in the 
world (Sankei) 
 
(7) Okinawa government has no point of contact with DPJ, worried 
about going back to square one on USFJ realignment (Ryukyu Shimpo) 
 
(8) DPJ "retreating" to pragmatic line on USFJ realignment? Need to 
watch its manifesto (Ryukyu Shimpo) 
 
(9) Interview with five economists on post-election economic policy: 
Clarification of fiscal resources essential (Tokyo Shimbun) 
 
(10) Poll on Aso cabinet, political parties (Mainichi) 
 
(11) Poll: Aso cabinet, political parties, election for House of 
Representatives (Asahi) 
 
(Corrected copy): Tearful prime minister expresses "remorse" at 
meeting of LDP Diet members; Humble attitude suppresses discontent 
(Tokyo Shimbun) 
 
(12) Political Cartoon (Sankei) 
 
ARTICLES: 
 
(1) Simulation of post-election scenarios: Who will have the 
majority of seats in the Lower House? 
 
TOKYO SHIMBUN (page 3) (Full) 
July 22, 2009 
 
House of Representatives Election Reporting Team, Political News 
Section 
 
Will the ruling parties, the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and New 
Komeito retain control of the administration, or will the opposition 
parties led by the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) achieve a change 
of government? The battle for the House of Representatives election, 
through which voters will choose the next administration, has begun. 
What will the political framework look like after the election 
results come out on August 30, after the 40-day campaign period? We 
 
TOKYO 00001659  002 OF 020 
 
 
made a simulation. 
 
(1) Continuation of the LDP-New Komeito government: Continuation of 
"twisted Diet," turmoil in the legislature 
 
The Lower House has 480 seats, and the parties that end up with at 
least 241 seats will have the support of the popular will and 
preside over the administration. 
 
If the LDP and New Komeito win a majority of seats, the current 
government framework will be sustained. However, it is definitely 
impossible for these two parties to retain over two-thirds of the 
Lower House seats, which they had won in the last election. The 
"twisted Diet," where the opposition controls the House of 
Councillors, will continue but the ruling parties will no longer 
have the option of passing bills with a second vote in the Lower 
House, their trump card in the legislation process. Therefore, they 
will have a tougher time steering the government. Above all, a 
turbulent Diet will continue. 
 
(2) DPJ-led administration: Policy differences source of trouble in 
coalition government 
 
If the opposition forces led by the DPJ win a majority of seats, 
this will mean the birth of the first non-LDP administration since 
¶1993. 
 
At present, the DPJ has won successive victories in major local 
elections. It also enjoys a comfortable lead over the LDP in 
political party support ratings. A change of administration is fast 
becoming a real possibility. 
 
A change of government will be possible, of course, if the DPJ wins 
a majority single-handedly. Even if it fails to do so, if the DPJ, 
along with the Social Democratic Party (SDP) and the People's New 
Party (PNP), manages to control a majority, a changeover will be 
highly possible. 
 
If a coalition government is formed by the DPJ with the SDP and the 
PNP, there will no longer be a "twisted Diet," since they also 
control the Upper House. These parties will have the initiative in 
steering the Diet. 
 
However, there is a big gap between the SDP and the DPJ on such 
issues as the Constitution and security policy. SDP leader Mizuho 
Fukushima is taking a wait-and-see attitude on the DPJ, saying, "We 
will give positive consideration to joining a coalition but have not 
yet decided." The two parties are expected to clash on policies. 
 
However, in this case, Diet members of the LDP, which is now an 
opposition party, may leave the party and become a "supplementary 
force" joining the non-LDP coalition. A realignment of political 
forces with the DPJ at the core on a small or medium scale may take 
place continuously. 
 
(3) Government framework in limbo: Independents hold the key; major 
realignment possible 
 
The most troublesome scenario after the Lower House election is that 
both the LDP-New Komeito camp and the DPJ-led forces fail to control 
a majority, each winning 220-230 seats, resulting in failure to 
determine the framework of the administration. 
 
TOKYO 00001659  003 OF 020 
 
 
 
In such a case, with the exception of the Japanese Communist Party, 
which opts for a unique line, the moves of independent groups, such 
as those led by former Minister of Economy, Trade, and Industry 
Takeo Hiranuma and former Administrative Reform Minister Yoshimi 
Watanabe, will hold the key. Both the LDP-New Komeito camp, which 
wants to hold on to power, and the DPJ, which wants to gain power, 
will undoubtedly compete fiercely to recruit defectors. 
 
If they still fail to control a majority, the LDP and the DPJ will 
even work vigorously to win over defectors from the other side. The 
LDP, in particular, has shown signs of internal division since last 
week, pointing to the potential for disintegrating after the 
election. 
 
However, in such a case, the number one party is still likely to 
have the initiative in the realignment of political forces. 
 
On the other hand, there is also the possibility of moves toward a 
grand coalition between the LDP and the DPJ. This idea had emerged 
once during the Fukuda administration. Then DPJ President Ichiro 
Ozawa was positive about it, but Ozawa has resigned as president. 
Current President Yukio Hatoyama is said to be negative about such a 
coalition, so the probability is not high. 
 
Additionally, the election of the prime minister may take place with 
both the LDP-New Komeito camp and the DPJ-led forces failing to 
control a majority. In this case, the candidate winning the most 
number of votes will take over the administration. This will be a 
minority government from the beginning and is bound to face serious 
difficulties in steering the government. 
 
(2) Business leaders unofficially contacting DPJ members 
 
TOKYO SHIMBUN (Page 8) (Full) 
July 22, 2009 
 
Nippon Keidanren (Japan Business Federation) Chairman Fujio Mitarai 
yesterday indicated his expectations for lively debates to be 
conducted during election campaigning, remarking: "Since this is an 
important election that will determine the fate of Japan, I expect 
political parties to engage in animated policy debate and then have 
the people make a judgment." Asked for his view about the 
possibility of a change of government, Mitarai only replied: "I want 
you to wait until 40 days from now (the voting day)." Japan 
Association of Corporate Executives President Masamitsu Sakurai 
emphasized: "Our nation is in austere fiscal conditions. It (the 
general election) will be a historic election to choose a government 
to build a new nation." 
 
Japan Chamber of Commerce and Industry (JCCI) Chairman Tadashi 
Okamura issued this statement: "The major point of issue is what 
scenario will be laid out for the future." 
 
Business leaders are taking a wait-and-see attitude for the upcoming 
election. But Keidanren and JCCI have reportedly made contact with 
Democratic Party (DPJ) members behind the scenes for such reasons as 
asking the party to reflect their requests in its policy manifesto. 
 
(3) Unusually long 40-day election campaign effectively kicks off 
 
NIKKEI (Page 2) (Abridged slightly) 
 
TOKYO 00001659  004 OF 020 
 
 
July 22, 2009 
 
A campaign lasting 40 days and culminating on Aug. 30 -- the longest 
under the current Constitution -- has effectively kicked off, in the 
run-up to the Aug. 30 House of Representatives election. Although 
the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) has set the victory-or-defeat 
line at a majority, uncertainties remain in the party about Prime 
Minister Taro Aso's ability as head of the party. The LDP is likely 
to face an uphill battle. Meanwhile, the major opposition Democratic 
Party of Japan (DPJ), which regards the upcoming election as a 
once-in-a-million chance to take over the reins of government, is 
hurriedly making adjustments to field candidates in all 
constituencies while urging its members to remain vigilant 
throughout the campaign despite the momentum the party is gaining. 
 
LDP plays up party unity at eleventh hour 
 
& Handshake with Nakagawa 
 
"We have no other option but to come together during the election 
campaign," Prime Minister Aso said at an informal meeting of LDP 
lawmakers of both houses of the Diet that was held around yesterday 
noon. The Prime Minister also acknowledged and apologized that his 
inconsistent remarks and a lack of leadership have contributed to 
dwindling support ratings. A sense of relief descended upon the 
conference room as tears welled up in Aso's eyes in the end. One 
member said, "It was surprising that the Prime Minister, who takes 
great pride in himself, offered an apology." 
 
The informal meeting was immediately followed by a meeting of LDP 
Lower House lawmakers in which former Secretary General Hidenao 
Nakagawa, a major member of the anti-Aso wing of the party, said: 
"(Hearing Prime Minister Aso's remarks), I am now totally willing to 
accept his decision." Nakagawa then exchanged a firm handshake with 
Aso, drawing a round of applause from the others in the room. 
 
The anti-Aso group's effort to play up party unity is also 
attributable to its resignation of the unseat Aso drive and 
supporters' discontent with the mess in the party. Former Prime 
Minister Yoshiro Mori complained during the Machimura faction's 
campaign kick-off ceremony yesterday afternoon, saying, "Some are 
still bad-mouthing the Prime Minister and the party on television." 
Nakagawa, who attended the faction's meeting for the first time in 
about five months, left the room after saying only a few words. 
 
& Little demand for Aso's stump 
 
The Prime Minister handed the party's official endorsement 
certificates to the first group of 309 prospective candidates 
(including proxies) at LDP headquarters yesterday afternoon. But 
questions are still hanging over the Prime Minister's qualifications 
as the "face of the party" for the upcoming election. Many LDP 
members take sober views of Aso, with one junior LDP lawmaker 
saying, "His stump would be counterproductive." 
 
The faction led by former Secretary General Taku Yamasaki held a 
meeting around yesterday noon in which Yamasaki called for steady 
efforts to win votes, saying: "If we joint efforts with the New 
Komeito, we can win the upcoming election. You must win seats at all 
costs." 
 
DPJ warns its members about being complacent 
 
TOKYO 00001659  005 OF 020 
 
 
 
& Person connected with Gunma 4th district may challenge former 
Prime Minister Fukuda 
 
At a press conference yesterday, DPJ President Yukio Hatoyama 
revealed a plan to reach conclusions before the end of the week on 
the constituencies the DPJ has yet to determine its candidates. 
Deputy President Ichiro Ozawa plans to run in Iwate Constituency No. 
4 as before instead of the Tokyo 12th district, which is New Komeito 
Representative Akihiro Ota's home constituency. Meanwhile, the New 
Party Nippon officially decided yesterday to field its head, Yasuo 
Tanaka who is an Upper House member, for the Hyogo 8th district. The 
DPJ is likely to endorse him. 
 
The DPJ has yet to determine its candidates in nine constituencies. 
The party has postponed determining a candidate for the Gunma 4th 
district, the home turn for former Prime Minister Yasuo Fukuda. A 
group of people connected with the 4th district, including one eager 
to announce his candidacy, met with Ozawa yesterday. The DPJ is also 
looking for its own candidate for Kanagawa Constituency No. 8 where 
Kenji Eda, an independent, will run in. 
 
The largest opposition party also intends to significantly increase 
the number of candidates running only in the proportional 
representation segment. In the past, the DPJ had only one candidate 
for each block. In the upcoming election, the party is considering 
fielding several candidates for the blocks from Hokkaido to Kinki. 
DPJ executives, including Hatoyama and Ozawa, dined with Kyocera 
Honorary Chairman Kazuo Inamori in Tokyo last night. They are 
believed to have exchanged views on the Lower House election 
situation and other matters. 
 
& Moves to change hats 
 
Some DPJ lawmakers are considering changing their hats. Shadow 
cabinet defense minister Keiichiro Asao, an Upper House member, 
informed Ozawa yesterday of his plan to run in the Kanagawa 4th 
district. Asao is considering all possibilities, including running 
in the race as an independent. 
 
The 40-day marathon campaigning is associated with many concerns. 
DPJ President Hatoyama is saddle with the question of false 
political fund reports. Hatoyama has indicated at a press conference 
that there is no need to hold another news conference to offer 
additional explanations, saying: "There may be people who do not 
think I have fulfilled my accountability, but there are far more 
people who want to see the DPJ bring change to politics." 
 
(4) DPJ's aim to break away from bureaucratic control, while moving 
to Kantei-led budget compilation system could be source of trouble 
 
NIKKEI (Page 5) (Abridged) 
July 22, 2009 
 
One issue in the House of Representatives election is how fiscal 
policy, including the national budget, will be affected. The 
Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) advocates breaking away from a 
"bureaucracy-led budget compilation" process, and the party is 
contemplating the creation of a new "national strategy bureau" 
reporting directly to the prime minister. This bureau would take 
charge of drafting the budget outline. Since this will represent a 
major shift from the current modus operandi, the Liberal Democratic 
 
TOKYO 00001659  006 OF 020 
 
 
Party (LDP) and officials of the central government at Kasumigaseki 
see it as unrealistic. If a change of administration occurs, the 
process of compiling the budget that will start immediately is 
certain to run into trouble. 
 
The government and the ruling parties have approved the budget 
request ceilings, which serve as the outline of the fiscal 2010 
budget, on July 1, setting the upper limit of general appropriations 
for policy expenditures at a record 52.7 trillion yen. Each ministry 
will now submit their budget requests based on these ceilings to the 
Ministry of Finance (MOF) by August 31. 
 
If the framework of the administration does not change drastically 
after the Lower House election, MOF will start examining the 
ministries' budget requests from September as it usually does. After 
negotiations with the ruling parties on such key issues as revisions 
to medical fees, the government's version of the budget will be 
compiled by late December, the aim being to have it pass the Diet by 
the end of March 2010. 
 
However, if the DPJ takes over the reins of government, the 
timetable inevitably would undergo a major change. The DPJ is even 
calling for a drastic reform of the ceilings, calling them the 
symbol of "MOF-led budget compilation." 
 
Until now, budget compilation consisted mainly of adding up the 
various budget requests submitted by the ministries to MOF and 
deciding on the final budget for the entire government through 
ruling-party negotiations. However, the DPJ has proposed a reform 
that would have the Prime Minister's Official Residence (Kantei) 
take the lead in setting the budget outline. This outline would 
determine the budget allocation for each ministry. Since the Kantei 
will lead the process of deciding the outline of the budget, the 
creation of a national strategy directly under the prime minister is 
also being considered. 
 
However, it will not be easy to change the schedule for budget 
compilation overnight. There is growing concern in Kasumigaseki, 
with one senior economic official noting, "If they push for this 
arbitrarily, trouble will inevitably come." One senior MOF official 
also expressed concern, "It is absolutely impossible to predict what 
would happen to the budget process after a change of 
administration." 
 
(5) Interview with former prime minister Nakasone: DPJ getting boost 
with people becoming tired of LDP 
 
YOMIURI (Page 4) (Full) 
July 18, 2009 
 
-- How do you see the present situation of the Liberal Democratic 
Party (LDP)? 
 
"I have the impression they are squabbling while the ship is 
sinking. Issues connected with a presidential election have an 
aspect of being a kind of power struggle, but there needs to be some 
kind of objective or order as to what the fight is all about. The 
forces that are trying to oust Prime Minister Aso do not have the 
next card (a presidential candidate). They are fighting for the sake 
of fighting. The LDP exists for the sake of the state and the 
people. If politicians engage in a scramble in pursuit of intraparty 
rivalry, the LDP will be diminished. They should see a bigger 
 
TOKYO 00001659  007 OF 020 
 
 
picture with an eye on public sentiment and the eyes of the people. 
Replacing the prime minister at this point of time will not appeal 
to the people. The LDP's loss in the Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly 
election indicates that people are fed up with the long-term 
administration of the LDP, that a new wind is blowing, and that the 
Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) is riding on that wind. This wind 
will continue to blow for some time to come. I cannot but think that 
the LDP will have an uphill battle in the forthcoming Lower House 
election. The LDP must come up with something that will ease the 
public's discontent." 
 
-- Public support ratings for Prime Minister Aso are low. 
 
"He acts in a way that makes people think he is frivolous in his 
remarks and lacks consideration. He is viewed as a political 
lightweight. He must show them that he is a political heavyweight, 
overcoming the fact that he is still serving in his first term (past 
10 months) in the run-up to the Lower House selection." 
 
-- Prime Minister Aso has continued to delay Lower House 
dissolution. 
 
"A situation like that was unprecedented. This is an issue of a 
politician's ability to make a decision. There have been many 
precedents in which the Lower House was dissolved under a 
disadvantageous situation in order to break a deadlock. Diet 
dissolution unites public sentiments, as well as moves in the party 
and among fellow party members. As such, all Diet dissolutions 
involve strains. There are few Diet dissolutions free of strains. 
Politicians need guts and insight to carry out dissolutions. 
 
Past prime ministers were elected with the solid backing of fellow 
party members and aides. When they made political decisions, they 
tapped that solidarity. I carried out the so-called "feigned-death" 
Diet dissolution in 1986. My fellow party members knew about it. 
However, they gladly pretended to be unaware of my intention. 
Politicians now do not make such an approach. Human bonds have now 
become very thin and weak." 
 
-- How do you view DPJ President Hatoyama? 
 
"He has gained in breadth and taken on an added significance. Since 
he now knows the path to taking over the reins of government to some 
extent, he has room to breathe. However, his approach to the issue 
of the false statement of individual political fund donations in his 
political fund report was insufficient. He needs to deal with the 
matter promptly. It is also imperative for him to have foreign 
affairs experts near him. He must bear in mind the need to pursue a 
mature diplomacy. 
 
The DPJ has yet to give full accounts on public finances, education 
and agricultural administration on the domestic front, and foreign 
affairs and security policies as well. He should solidify relations 
with China, South Korea and Association of Southeast Asian Nations 
(ASEAN), as well as to reveal policies toward the U.S., European 
countries and Russia. 
 
-- What about the possibility of a political realignment after the 
Lower House election? 
 
"There is a great possibility of such realignment. Moves to create a 
stable axis, based on public opinions during election campaigns and 
 
TOKYO 00001659  008 OF 020 
 
 
public responses to election results, will presumably appear when a 
new administration is established. Minority forces from both the LDP 
and the DPJ might bolt their parties. Such could occur if political 
circles undergo realignment." 
 
(6) "Seiron" column: The price of a rare "success story" in the 
world 
 
SANKEI (Page 7) (Full) 
July 22, 2009 
 
Ryozo Kato, former ambassador to the U.S., Nippon Professional 
Baseball commissioner 
 
Threat facing democracies 
 
The late Dr. Herman Kahn once noted, "Democracies are susceptible to 
two dangers; one is aggression from outside, the other is erosion 
from inside." After returning home from the United States last year, 
I realized that one of the dangers, "erosion from inside" is 
permeating Japan. 
 
First, a sense of community and caring for each other has weakened 
among Japanese. And in inverse proportion to this, there are too 
many individuals who intimidate others with their complaints and 
criticisms. I think the mass media, particularly television, are 
largely responsible for this. 
 
To borrow the words of one American, the mission of the media is no 
longer to provide "information"; the media have turned into a world 
of "infortainment." Just like "junk food," both the providers and 
the consumers are unable to stop themselves, even though they know 
it is bad for the health. 
 
Even in news broadcasting, there is an excess of half-baked "live 
reports" for everything. These reports are made in bad Japanese, 
often with unclear context. While claiming to be "factual reports," 
the person talking on the screen throws in his subjective views, 
trying to "guide" public opinion and deriving pleasure from doing 
this. While I am not surprised by this situation in the media, I 
think this tendency is very childish. 
 
Japan insensitive to the outside world 
 
Another problem is the sloppiness of information management in 
Japan. 
 
With regard to information, the United States probably thinks that 
China makes more sense than Japan. Overall, Japan does not realize 
that everything it does is being watched by the outside world. It is 
too used to "following the crowd" and is insensitive to people 
looking from outside the country. 
 
Perhaps for this reason, or as a result, Japan worries too much 
about the wishes of the concerned countries when it comes to 
security and defense policy. I think this weak sense of community 
and sloppiness in information management is related to Japan's 
isolating itself from war, even though 64 years have passed since 
World War II. 
 
The United States is in stark contrast to Japan. 
 
 
TOKYO 00001659  009 OF 020 
 
 
I believe that the election of President Barack Obama is not 
unrelated to the fact that the U.S. has been involved with all the 
major wars since World War I. War is the harshest experience. The 
American people have had to share such experience for a prolonged 
period of time. 
 
I will not go into the right or wrong or good or bad of war. 
However, sharing the war experience unmistakably lowers the racial 
or gender barrier. There is something common in the rise of Tiger 
Woods and Barack Obama, albeit in very different fields. 
 
On the other hand, Japan became a rare "success story" through its 
"insulation from war" after World War II. However, the price for 
this has come to take the form of lack of sense of community and 
insensitivity to information. 
 
Since there is a weak sense of caring for each other even among the 
Japanese people, it is natural that Japan also has a weak sense of 
community with its allies and the outside world and is insensitive 
to information that needs to be shared with them. 
 
During my tour in the U.S., visitors often asked me which is more 
important for the U.S., Japan or China. I think this is more a 
question of "Japan's choice" than a question of "the United States' 
choice." While Japan and the U.S. are allies, such is not the case 
between the U.S. and China. Therefore, it boils down to the simple 
matter of since Japan is an ally of the United States, it should 
behave like one. 
 
Mutual defense is the essence of an alliance 
 
There have been some discussions about whether Japan can intercept a 
missile fired by North Korea heading for the U.S. The essence of an 
alliance is "mutual defense," and a response disregarding this is 
certain to have an impact on mutual trust, which is the bedrock of 
the alliance. The concepts of "soft power" and "smart power" were 
discussed enthusiastically at a seminar on Japan-U.S. relations that 
I attended recently. 
 
The Americans on the panel emphasized that whether it is "soft," 
"hard," or "smart" power, the common essence is "power." Without 
"power," "soft" or "smart" is meaningless. At the end of the day, 
they are all means to achieve a specific goal. 
 
Japan likes "soft power." Essentially, the wish or belief behind 
this is that the risk of loss of Japanese life as a result of the 
implementation of Japanese policy should be avoided by all means. 
 
To protect one's own safety, one always needs to share a sense of 
community and share information and risks with others. The same is 
also completely true for the international community. Even today, 
Japan still aspires to be more important than China and to be 
regarded as an indispensable ally of the United States, having a "no 
risk, high return" mindset. 
 
There is a serious contradiction in this. Japan is barely aware that 
there has to be a meeting point between these two aspects. I think 
that therein lies the inevitable "choice" that Japan will have to 
make. 
 
(7) Okinawa government has no point of contact with DPJ, worried 
about going back to square one on USFJ realignment 
 
TOKYO 00001659  010 OF 020 
 
 
 
RYUKYU SHIMPO (Page 2) (Full) 
July 22, 2009 
 
In light of the possibility that a Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) 
administration might be launched, officials of the Okinawa 
Prefectural Government (OPG) are beginning to be worried about the 
lack of points of contact with the party. One senior OPG official is 
visibly anxious that, "We do not know whom to talk to," since the 
debate on security policy in the DPJ has been inconclusive. He also 
gives the following analysis: "One of the points of contention in 
this general election is which party will promote decentralization 
of power more," and with the examination of Okinawa's economic 
development program taking place, "the question is not what the 
national government will do for us, but our vision of what we want 
to do and what sort of assistance we can obtain." He emphasizes that 
he is closely watching the decentralization policy. 
 
On the impact of the election on USFJ realignment, the senior OPG 
official stated: "The environmental assessment procedures are 
underway" for the relocation of Futenma Air Station. He said that he 
would be watching how the current relocation plan proceeds, adding, 
"We are indeed anxious about what will happen to the political 
situation and whether there will be an alternative plan to replace 
the existing agreement. Even if such a plan is presented, it will be 
a problem because the plan to complete the replacement facility by 
2014 will come to nothing." He appears to be alarmed that while the 
DPJ advocates relocation outside Okinawa, there is no guarantee such 
a proposal would ever be pursued. 
 
Regarding the fiscal 2010 budget requests due by the end of August, 
another senior OPG official said: "The budget request guidelines 
have already come out. There will probably be no significant change 
in the allocations for Okinawa's development." 
 
(8) DPJ "retreating" to pragmatic line on USFJ realignment? Need to 
watch its manifesto 
 
RYUKYU SHIMPO (page 2) (Full) 
July 22, 2009 
 
Tokyo - Choosing a new administration is the main theme in the 
forthcoming House of Representatives election. With regard to U.S. 
Forces Japan (USFJ) realignment, senior officials of the Democratic 
Party of Japan (DPJ), which is aiming to become the ruling party, 
have often talked about the relocation of Futenma Air Station 
outside Okinawa in their news conferences and speeches to highlight 
the party's difference with the current administration. However, 
when it comes to specific plans, such as the choice of a relocation 
site, the party has remained vague. 
 
On the other hand, the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) 
maintains its position of promoting the realignment plans, asserting 
that the steady implementation of the project to relocate the 
Futenma base to waters off Henoko in Nago City will contribute to 
lightening the burden imposed by U.S. bases on Okinawa. 
 
When DPJ President Yukio Hatoyama was in Okinawa on July 19, he 
reiterated his party's goal of relocating the Futenma base out of 
Okinawa. He said: "If the Okinawan people are united in their wish 
for relocation outside the prefecture, we will also have to take 
positive action to at least move this facility outside Okinawa 
 
TOKYO 00001659  011 OF 020 
 
 
(short of moving it outside Japan)." 
 
However, a senior Ministry of Defense official regards this as the 
DPJ's shift to a pragmatic line. He points out: "The statement about 
'if the Okinawan people are united in their wish' was made with full 
awareness of the current situation in which Okinawans are divided 
between relocation outside Okinawa and relocation within Okinawa (to 
Nago). He knew that it is impossible for the Okinawans to reach a 
consensus." 
 
The agreement on the relocation of U.S. Marines in Okinawa to Guam 
was approved in May. On July 11, the first installment of relocation 
funds since the agreement took effect was provided by Japan to the 
United States. With the USFJ realignment road map agreed upon by the 
two governments being executed steadily, what sort of review of the 
realignment plans does the DPJ have in mind? The party's manifesto 
(campaign pledges) to be issued by the end of July will be carefully 
watched. 
 
(9) Interview with five economists on post-election economic policy: 
Clarification of fiscal resources essential 
 
TOKYO SHIMBUN (Page 8) (Full) 
July 22, 2009 
 
The next general election has been set for August 30, opening a 
battle between the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and the Democratic 
Party of Japan (DPJ) to capture the reins of government. Market 
players are eager to figure out what economic and fiscal policies 
might be taken after the election. The Tokyo Shimbun asked five 
economists about what economic issues are expected to take center 
stage in the campaign and prospects for the stock market. 
 
The upcoming election will take place in the aftermath of the 
financial crisis that was set in across the world last fall and the 
subsequent economic deterioration. Nikko Cordial Securities Inc. 
senior economist Jun Tsukasa made a sarcastic comment about Prime 
Minister Taro Aso, who was pressed to dissolve the House of 
Representatives under severe circumstances although no prospects are 
in sight for economic recovery, dubbing the dissolution as "KY 
(Keizai = economy, Yokuwakaranai = incomprehensive) dissolution." 
Dai-Ichi Life Research Institute Inc. chief economist Yoshikiyo 
Shimamine called it "a once-in-a-century dissolution." They take the 
view that economic stimulus measures are likely to take center stage 
in the election campaign, given the current unprecedentedly serious 
depression. 
 
The five economists share the view that a certain level of fiscal 
disbursements are necessary in order to turn around the economy, but 
Credit Suisse Securities chief market strategist Shinichi Ichikawa 
commented: "It is essential to clarify where the necessary revenues 
will come from." 
 
Paying attention to depopulation getting more serious and increasing 
welfare spending, JP Morgan Securities chief economist Masaaki 
Sugano says: "It is necessary to consider how tax hikes, economic 
growth, and dependence on debts (issuance of government bonds) 
should be balanced out" (to cover social security spending). 
 
Regarding the possibility of the election producing a change of 
government, the five economists all gave it more than a 50 PERCENT 
chance. Mizuho Research Institute senior economist Koji Takeuchi 
 
TOKYO 00001659  012 OF 020 
 
 
said: "At the present point of time, it is highly likely that with 
the dissatisfaction at the LDP and the Aso cabinet alone, a switch 
in power between the ruling and opposition camps could occur." He 
stressed the need for all political parties to engage in 
policy-oriented election campaigning. 
 
Asked about the future of the stock market, the five economists 
predicted that the 225-issue Nikkei Stock Average would exceed the 
10,000 line by the end of this fiscal year. 
 
As factors to bring up stock prices, Tsukasa cited: "Earnings of 
domestic firms should hit bottom," and Ichikawa listed "the need of 
economic recovery in the U.S. and other foreign countries." Sugano 
said: "Unless Japan presents its medium- to long-term vision, 
foreign investors will not buy Japanese stocks." 
 
 Naming of the dissolution; key economic issues Possibility of 
change of government 
Jun Tsukasa "KY dissolution;" tax hikes or elimination of waste 
spending to squeeze out financial resources. 95 PERCENT 
Shinichi Ichikawa "Economic structure-selection election"; propriety 
of the DPJ's policies that require enormous funds and specific 
financial sources. More than 90 PERCENT 
Koji Takeuchi "Election for the people's livelihoods;" to what 
extend fiscal disbursements should be approved. 70 PERCENT 
Masaaki Sugano "Election to propose pork-barrel measures;" which 
should be chosen to finance social security spending, tax hikes, 
economic growth or dependence on debts. 70 PERCENT 
Yoshikiyo Shimamine "Once-in-a-century dissolution;" when the effect 
of the current economic stimulus measures disappear, what additional 
measures should be taken.  50 PERCENT 
 
(09072205ys) Back to Top 
 
(10) Poll on Aso cabinet, political parties 
 
MAINICHI (Page 2) (Abridged) 
July 20, 2009 
 
Questions & Answers 
(T = total; P = previous; M = male; F = female) 
 
Q: Do you support the Aso cabinet? 
 
 T P M F 
Yes 17 (19) 16 17 
No 67 (60) 70 64 
Not interested 16 (20) 13 19 
 
Q: (Only for those who answered "yes" to the above question) Why? 
 
 T P M F 
Because the prime minister is from the Liberal Democratic Party 34 
(42) 30 39 
Because something can be expected of the prime minister's leadership 
12 (11) 14 10 
Because there's something familiar about the prime minister 24 (22) 
22 25 
Because something can be expected of the prime minister's policy 
measures 25 (19) 31 19 
 
Q: (Only for those who answered "no" to the above question) Why? 
 
TOKYO 00001659  013 OF 020 
 
 
 
 T P M F 
Because the prime minister is from the Liberal Democratic Party 8 
(8) 10 7 
Because nothing can be expected of the prime minister's leadership 
39 (39) 36 41 
Because there's something imprudent about the prime minister 15 (17) 
13 17 
Because nothing can be expected of the prime minister's policy 
measures 36 (35) 37 35 
 
Q: Which political party do you support? 
 
 T P M F 
Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) 18 (20) 19 17 
Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ or Minshuto) 36 (34) 43 30 
New Komeito (NK) 5 (4) 3 6 
Japanese Communist Party (JCP) 4 (4) 4 3 
Social Democratic Party (SDP or Shaminto) 1 (1) 0 1 
People's New Party (PNP or Kokumin Shinto) 1 (0) 0 1 
Reform Club (RC or Kaikaku Kurabu) -- (--) -- -- 
New Party Nippon (NPN or Shinto Nippon) 0 (--) 1 -- 
Other political parties 2 (1) 3 2 
None 32 (32) 26 38 
 
Q: Who do you think is more appropriate for prime minister, Prime 
Minister Aso or DPJ President Hatoyama? 
 
 T P M F 
Prime Minister Aso 11 (15) 12 10 
DPJ President Hatoyama 28 (32) 34 22 
Neither 57 (46) 53 62 
 
Q: Which party, the LDP or the DPJ, would you like to see win in the 
next election for the House of Representatives? 
 
 T P M F 
LDP 23 (27) 22 24 
DPJ 56 (53) 63 51 
Other political parties 16 (12) 13 19 
 
 
Q: If an election were to be held now for the House of 
Representatives, which political party will you vote for in your 
proportional representation bloc? 
 
 T P M F 
LDP 18  19 17 
DPJ 45  54 36 
NK 6  5 7 
JCP 4  5 3 
SDP 1  1 1 
PNP 0  0 1 
RC 0  0 -- 
NPN 0  1 0 
Other political parties 2  1 3 
Don't know 21  12 29 
 
(Note) Figures shown in percentage, rounded off. "0" indicates that 
the figure was below 0.5 PERCENT . "--" denotes that no respondents 
answered. "No answer" omitted. Figures in parentheses denote the 
results of the last survey conducted June 13-14. 
 
TOKYO 00001659  014 OF 020 
 
 
 
Polling methodology: The survey was conducted July 18-19 over the 
telephone across the nation on a computer-aided random digit 
sampling (RDS) basis. A total of 1,579 households with one or more 
eligible voters were sampled. Answers were obtained from 1,045 
persons (66 PERCENT ). 
 
(11) Poll: Aso cabinet, political parties, election for House of 
Representatives 
 
ASAHI (Page 8) (Full) 
July 19, 2009 
 
Questions & Answers 
(Figures shown in percentage) 
 
Q: Do you support the Aso cabinet? 
 
Yes 20 
No 74 
 
Q: Which political party do you support now? 
 
Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) 27 
Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ or Minshuto) 32 
New Komeito (NK) 4 
Japanese Communist Party (JCP) 2 
Social Democratic Party (SDP or Shaminto) 1 
People's New Party (PNP or Kokumin Shinto) 0 
Reform Club (RC or Kaikaku Kurabu) 0 
New Party Nippon (NPN or Shinto Nippon) 0 
Other political parties 0 
None 32 
 
Q: There will be a general election before long for the House of 
Representatives. To what extent are you interested in the 
forthcoming general election? 
 
Very interested 42 
Somewhat interested 39 
Not very interested 16 
Not interested at all 3 
 
Q: If you were to vote now in a general election for the House of 
Representatives, which political party would you vote for in your 
proportional representation bloc? 
 
LDP 28 
DPJ 52 
NK 5 
JCP 3 
SDP 2 
PNP 1 
RC 0 
NPN 0 
Other political parties 6 
 
Q: Which political party's candidate would you like to vote for in 
your single-seat constituency? 
 
LDP 29 
DPJ 47 
 
TOKYO 00001659  015 OF 020 
 
 
NK 4 
JCP 3 
SDP 1 
PNP 1 
RC 0 
NPN 0 
Other political parties 2 
Independent candidate 10 
 
Q: Who do you think is more appropriate for prime minister, Prime 
Minister Aso or DPJ President Hatoyama? 
 
Prime Minister Aso 21 
DPJ President Aso 50 
 
Q: What's your image of a political party's head? 
 
A person leading a party's policy 53 
A person symbolizing a party's nature 11 
A person elected as the face of a party for election campaigning 12 
A person elected in an intraparty power game 21 
 
 
Q: When you make a judgment about whether a political party's head 
is good and bad, to what extent do you attach importance to (1) 
political ideal, (2) policy-planning ability, (3) leadership 
ability, (4) public accountability, and (5) cleanness? 
 
 (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) 
Very much 37 42 58 65 49 
Somewhat 50 46 33 27 35 
Not very much 9 9 6 5 12 
Not at all 1 1 1 1 2 
 
Q: When you choose a political party or a candidate to vote for, to 
what extent do you attach importance to who the party's head is? 
 
Very much 22 
Somewhat 46 
Not very much 27 
Not at all 4 
 
Q: When you make a judgment about whether a political party's actual 
results in the past are good and bad, to what extent do you attach 
importance to (1) policies or standpoints translated into action, 
(2) how it debated in Diet deliberations or how it responded to 
legislative measures, (3) what its lawmakers have said and done or 
whether its lawmakers were involved in scandals or not, and (4) what 
its lawmakers are doing in their respective communities? 
 
 (1) (2) (3) (4) 
Very much 41 31 38 25 
Somewhat 49 50 38 44 
Not very much 7 15 19 25 
Not at all 1 2 3 3 
 
Q: When you choose a political party or a candidate to vote for, to 
what extent do you attach importance to the party's actual results 
in the past? 
 
Very much 29 
Somewhat 56 
 
TOKYO 00001659  016 OF 020 
 
 
Not very much 12 
Not at all 1 
 
Q: When you make a judgment about a political party's actual 
results, do you weigh its actual results in the past year or two or 
its actual results over a long period of 5 or 10 years? 
 
Actual results in the past year or two 49 
Actual results over a long period of 5-10 years 46 
 
Q: If a political party you voted for in the forthcoming election 
comes into office and find it falling short of expectations in its 
actual results, then what do you think you will do in the next 
election? 
 
Vote for another political party 59 
Vote for the same political party 24 
Abstain from voting 8 
 
Q: To what extent do you appreciate the LDP's actual results in the 
past? 
 
Very much 3 
Somewhat 47 
Not very much 36 
Not at all 11 
 
Q: To what extent do you appreciate the DPJ's actual results in the 
past? 
 
Very much 4 
Somewhat 42 
Not very much 41 
Not at all 9 
 
Q: Do you think there is a big difference between the LDP's policy 
measures and the DPJ's? 
 
Yes 36 
No 59 
 
Q: Then, do you think there is a big difference between the LDP and 
the DPJ when it comes to their specific polices for (1) social 
security, including pensions, (2) fiscal reconstruction, (3) foreign 
relations and national security, (4) politics and money, and (5) 
bureaucracy? 
 
 (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) 
Yes 43 44 28 25 41 
No 51 48 62 69 50 
 
Q: When you choose a political party or a candidate to vote for in 
the forthcoming election for the House of Representatives, do you 
attach importance to the party's head or the party itself? 
 
The party's head 15 
The party itself 81 
 
Q: When you choose a political party or a candidate to vote for in 
the forthcoming election for the House of Representatives, to what 
extent do you attach importance to the party's campaign pledges? 
 
 
TOKYO 00001659  017 OF 020 
 
 
Very much 35 
Somewhat 52 
Not very much 11 
Not at all 1 
 
Q: When you choose a political party or a candidate, to what extent 
do you attach importance to expectations for the party? 
 
Very much 42 
Somewhat 46 
Not very much 9 
Not at all 1 
 
Q: When you choose a political party or a candidate, do you attach 
importance to the party's actual results in the past or your 
expectations for the party in the future? 
 
Actual results in the past 20 
Expectations in the future 76 
 
Q: When you choose a candidate to vote for in your single-seat 
constituency of the House of Representatives, do you attach 
importance to the candidate's qualifications or that candidate's 
political party? 
 
Mainly the candidate's qualifications 26 
The candidate's qualifications to a certain degree 28 
About the same 20 
The candidate's political party to a certain degree 18 
Mainly the candidate's political party 6 
 
Q: When you choose a candidate to vote for in your single-seat 
constituency of the House of Representatives, do you have a positive 
image or a negative image about (1) a hereditary candidate, (2) a 
candidate who was a central government bureaucrat, (3) a candidate 
who was a mayor, governor, or local assembly member, (4) a candidate 
who was a private business employee, and (5) a candidate who was a 
civic activist? 
 
 (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) 
Positive image 8 7 33 30 29 
Neither 68 62 61 65 59 
Negative image 21 28 3 3 9 
 
Q: What do you think is the most important factor for you to choose 
a political party and a candidate in the forthcoming election for 
the House of Representatives? 
 
The party's head 3 
The party's actual results in the past 12 
Expectations for the party in the future 47 
The Party's campaign pledges 19 
The candidate's self 16 
 
Q: Would you like the current LDP-led coalition government to 
continue, or would you otherwise like it to be replaced with a 
DPJ-led coalition government? 
 
LDP-led coalition 28 
DPJ-led coalition 52 
 
Q: Do you look forward to a change of government or feel uneasy 
 
TOKYO 00001659  018 OF 020 
 
 
about it? 
 
Look forward 60 
Feel uneasy 32 
 
Q: If there is a change of government, how do you think Japanese 
politics will? 
 
Change greatly 10 
Change somewhat 54 
Not change very much 32 
 
Q: When you make a judgment about whether a political party is 
competent to run the government, to what extent do you attach 
importance to (1) governing experience in the past, (2) 
policy-planning ability, (3) its head's ability, and (4) its human 
resources? 
 
 (1) (2) (3) (4) 
Very much 9 31 36 33 
Somewhat 43 54 49 30 
Not very much 39 11 12 13 
Not at all 5 1 2 2 
 
Q: To what extent do you think the LDP is competent now to run the 
government? 
 
Very much 5 
Somewhat 39 
Not very much  41 
Not at all 12 
 
Q: To what extent do you think the DPJ is competent now to run the 
government? 
 
Very much 6 
Somewhat 53 
Not very much  31 
Not at all 6 
 
Q: When you choose a political party or a candidate in the 
forthcoming election for the House of Representatives, to what 
extent do you think about the choice of government? 
 
Very much 34 
Somewhat 49 
Not very much  14 
Not at all 2 
 
Q: When you vote in the forthcoming election for the House of 
Representatives, what do you think you will do? Pick only one that 
is closest to your mindset from among those listed below. 
 
Choose a political party that is closest to my thinking 32 
Choose a person appropriate to become a lawmaker 24 
Choose a political party competent to run the government 30 
Choose a person who will become prime minister 2 
Express dissatisfaction with politics 9 
 
Q: Did you vote in the past elections for the House of 
Representatives and for the House of Councillors? 
 
 
TOKYO 00001659  019 OF 020 
 
 
Almost every time 63 
Many times 20 
Not very often 10 
Almost no 4 
 
Q: What was your voting behavior in the past elections for the House 
of Representatives and for the House of Councillors? 
 
Voted for almost the same party or the same party's candidate 79 
Voted for a different party and a different party's candidate each 
time 16 
 
Q: Do you think your voting behavior will remain the same in future 
elections for the House of Representatives and for the House of 
Councillors? 
 
Yes 55 
No 37 
 
Polling methodology: The survey was conducted by mailing the 
questionnaire form to a total of 3,000 voters chosen across the 
nation on a stratified two-stage random sampling basis. A total of 
339 voting blocs were selected so as to epitomize the nation's 
electorates at large, and nine persons were picked on average from 
each voting bloc's register. The questionnaire form was sent June 17 
and was sent back from a total of 2,263 persons before July 13. 
Valid answers were from 2,227 persons, excluding answer sheets left 
blank or filled out by those not subject to the survey. The 
retrieval rate was 74 PERCENT . In the breakdown of respondents, 
males accounted for 46 PERCENT , with females at 53 PERCENT  and 
unknown at 1 PERCENT . In the breakdown of age brackets, persons in 
their 20s accounted for 11 PERCENT , 30s-16 PERCENT , 40s-16 PERCENT 
, 50s-18 PERCENT , 60s-19 PERCENT , 70-14 PERCENT , 80 and over-6 
PERCENT . 
 
(Corrected copy): Tearful prime minister expresses "remorse" at 
meeting of LDP Diet members; Humble attitude suppresses discontent 
 
TOKYO SHIMBUN (Page 2) (Full) 
July 22, 2009 
 
Akihiro Ikushima 
 
At the meeting of Liberal Democratic Party members of both houses of 
the Diet held before the plenary session of the House of 
Representatives where its dissolution would be declared, Prime 
Minister Taro Aso said: "My only wish is that all of you who plan to 
run in the election will (get elected and) return to this place." 
Aso's tearful words suppressed the discontent going into the 
election campaign amid a raging adverse wind. 
 
The prime minister, who abhors showing his weakness or being 
criticized for "wavering," admitted his responsibility for the 
successive defeats in the recent major local elections and expressed 
his "remorse and apology." He took a humble attitude to show the 
party's unity at the time of Diet dissolution. 
 
Aso takes pride in the fact that he was able to prevent the economy 
from sinking deeper and deeper since he took office. Even after the 
cabinet support rating dropped to a crisis level, his determination 
to "seek the people's verdict for this administration's 
achievements" remained unshaken, and he insisted on exercising his 
 
TOKYO 00001659  020 OF 020 
 
 
power to dissolve the Diet. 
 
However, the prime minister also understands that this election 
campaign will be an uphill battle. His aides say that: "He is 
anxious that his policies have not been conveyed properly to the 
people and is not so self-assured about winning the election." 
 
In his news conference announcing the dissolution of the Diet, Aso 
did not define his criterion for victory in the general election. He 
bristled at reporters' persistent questions on this and said: "Do 
you think I can answer a question premised on losing the election 
just like that? The election campaign has just begun." 
 
Will the prime minister be able to fight off the adverse wind? 
Toward the end of the news conference, he could only fall back on 
his fighting spirit. He stated: "An election is where one does 
everything in his power, works as hard as possible, and puts forth 
all his strength." 
 
ZUMWALT